W/E BSF's: Blue Grass 92; Arky 103 (!?)

[cmorioles]

I don't have time to look them up right now, but if you go to my site and check the Breeder's Cup Archives, I imagine at least one Derby runner is in there most years.

[cmorioles]

OK, I looked. Note for the pace call at 10f, I use 6f, not the mile most people use.

2007-127, 106
2006-125, 111
2005-128, 100
2004-114, 105
2003-121, 107
2002-112, 113

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, I looked. Note for the pace call at 10f, I use 6f, not the mile most people use.

2007-127, 106
2006-125, 111
2005-128, 100
2004-114, 105
2003-121, 107
2002-112, 113

I have a question for you and any other pace/final figure makers out there.

Do you have a lower confidence level when making figures for Derby preps due to there being a limited sample of age/sex/distance races against which to compare the preps' fractions and final times?

I've made and used my own pace/final figures and have found it far more difficult to have great confidence in figures I've made for infrequently run classifications (like a Derby prep) vs, say, a 6F or 8F race for older.

When figure professionals say that the "track changed" for races like the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, is it mostly a case of the surface actually changing or more a reflection of the difficulty of assigning figures for these races?

I guess that's two questions. Thanks.

[cmorioles]

I don't find them any harder to make than any other figures. It can be tough when it is the only route on the card, or it is surrounded by a turf races, but that isn't any different than your usual race card.

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, I looked. Note for the pace call at 10f, I use 6f, not the mile most people use.

2007-127, 106
2006-125, 111
2005-128, 100
2004-114, 105
2003-121, 107
2002-112, 113

Thanks Craig. It looks like 4 out of 6 similar to what War Pass set in the Wood. I guess that final starting field and post position draw wold have some effect on how fast it will be this year.