W/E BSF's: Blue Grass 92; Arky 103 (!?)

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I actually think it will be more reasonable.

Craig, I know you are busy with a lot of other stuff going on, but wondering about the conjecture about the pace of the Derby. If it is not too much trouble, I would be interested in seeing your pace figures for the last few
(10) Derbies to see how they compare with this years prep races and whether they support or refute Steve and your thoughts about the Wood.

Bob

[cmorioles]

I don't have time to look them up right now, but if you go to my site and check the Breeder's Cup Archives, I imagine at least one Derby runner is in there most years.

[cmorioles]

OK, I looked. Note for the pace call at 10f, I use 6f, not the mile most people use.

2007-127, 106
2006-125, 111
2005-128, 100
2004-114, 105
2003-121, 107
2002-112, 113

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, I looked. Note for the pace call at 10f, I use 6f, not the mile most people use.

2007-127, 106
2006-125, 111
2005-128, 100
2004-114, 105
2003-121, 107
2002-112, 113

I have a question for you and any other pace/final figure makers out there.

Do you have a lower confidence level when making figures for Derby preps due to there being a limited sample of age/sex/distance races against which to compare the preps' fractions and final times?

I've made and used my own pace/final figures and have found it far more difficult to have great confidence in figures I've made for infrequently run classifications (like a Derby prep) vs, say, a 6F or 8F race for older.

When figure professionals say that the "track changed" for races like the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, is it mostly a case of the surface actually changing or more a reflection of the difficulty of assigning figures for these races?

I guess that's two questions. Thanks.

[cmorioles]

I don't find them any harder to make than any other figures. It can be tough when it is the only route on the card, or it is surrounded by a turf races, but that isn't any different than your usual race card.

[rgustafson]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, I looked. Note for the pace call at 10f, I use 6f, not the mile most people use.

2007-127, 106
2006-125, 111
2005-128, 100
2004-114, 105
2003-121, 107
2002-112, 113

Thanks Craig. It looks like 4 out of 6 similar to what War Pass set in the Wood. I guess that final starting field and post position draw wold have some effect on how fast it will be this year.