Pricing the Derby

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

lol, it wasn't long ago for my derby handicapping I would separate the contenders from the rest by just looking at horses who had run at least a 105 beyer. lately the benchmark has been more like 100.

This year above 95 gets attention!

While Beyers/speed figures don't necessarily tell the whole story, it's certainly a logical place to start, and I agree 100%- 105 was the number, then it was 100... this year, 95! There was a pretty hard and fast rule that any horse that hadn't run two 100+ Beyers coming in was a pretty easy toss, only Sea Hero in 25+ years had broken that (and I believe he had a 99 and a 103). Giacomo broke that rule, and this year, ONLY Big Brown even qualifies!!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

While Beyers/speed figures don't necessarily tell the whole story, it's certainly a logical place to start, and I agree 100%- 105 was the number, then it was 100... this year, 95! There was a pretty hard and fast rule that any horse that hadn't run two 100+ Beyers coming in was a pretty easy toss, only Sea Hero in 25+ years had broken that (and I believe he had a 99 and a 103). Giacomo broke that rule, and this year, ONLY Big Brown even qualifies!!

is lack of racing a factor? are the horses doing less, as they aren't as far along racing-wise as in years past?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

is lack of racing a factor? are the horses doing less, as they aren't as far along racing-wise as in years past?

Possibly... I remember the average # of starts pre-Derby was around 8, and now it seems like this year it will be around 6. I've always thought most horses don't reach their peak until their 10th start or so. No statistics to back that up, just an observation.