Pricing the Derby

[JJP]

Who is a "synthetic star"? Is there such a thing? Just because Tiago and Heatseeker ran 1-2 in the Oaklawn Cap and Gayego won the Arkansas Derby, it has no bearing on whether Colonel John will handle real dirt. Tiago HAS run on real dirt before so he can't even be included.

I contend that fall Churchill is now unplayable due to the heavy diet of 2YO racing and the majority of them have run all their previous races at Keeneland, Arlington and Turfway over Polytrack. I remember seeing some very chaotic results there last November and the underlying reason was so many horses who'd never run on real dirt and nobody really knew if they'd handle it.

Synthetic racing is certainly closer to grass than dirt and one cannot use grass form to project how a horse will run on converntional dirt.

BTW, I did think of a "synthetic star": Dominican. How has he done on dirt since the 2007 Blue Grass?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by JJP

Who is a "synthetic star"? Is there such a thing? Just because Tiago and Heatseeker ran 1-2 in the Oaklawn Cap and Gayego won the Arkansas Derby, it has no bearing on whether Colonel John will handle real dirt. Tiago HAS run on real dirt before so he can't even be included.

I contend that fall Churchill is now unplayable due to the heavy diet of 2YO racing and the majority of them have run all their previous races at Keeneland, Arlington and Turfway over Polytrack. I remember seeing some very chaotic results there last November and the underlying reason was so many horses who'd never run on real dirt and nobody really knew if they'd handle it.

Synthetic racing is certainly closer to grass than dirt and one cannot use grass form to project how a horse will run on converntional dirt.

forget synthetic stars then, name ANY prominent horse. i contend that synthetic to dirt is nothing at all like the consideration for turf horses going to dirt. far more synthetic horses run just fine on dirt compared to turf horses.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

forget synthetic stars then, name ANY prominent horse. i contend that synthetic to dirt is nothing at all like the consideration for turf horses going to dirt. far more synthetic horses run just fine on dirt compared to turf horses.

Just from stakes winners on the synthetics that are clearly better on it then on the dirt. I'm sure I could find far more if I used stakes placed as well.

Dominican
Panty Raid
Piratesonthelake
Steve's Double
Slew's Tizzy
Christmas Kid
Off Duty
Stream Cat
Danzon
Lewis Michael
Lady Belsara
Silent Name
Mary Delaney
Massive Drama (might be fine in a dirt sprint)
Texas Fever
(spot reserved for Monba)
(spot reserved for Cowboy Cal)


On the contrary I only found three horses that fit the profile of the turf horse flourishing on the synthetics that wouldn't be able to run a step on the dirt that did actually come back to win at similar levels on the dirt:

Asi Siempre
Heatseeker
Spotsgone

[HaloWishingwell]

Who cares about the odds , TALE OF EKATI wil pay out $31.60.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Who cares about the odds , TALE OF EKATI wil pay out $31.60.

Why the bold and italics???? Do you feel the need to try and standout with your post?

[sumitas]

i won't say it again. i'm playin the long odds this year.

*head explodes*

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Just from stakes winners on the synthetics that are clearly better on it then on the dirt. I'm sure I could find far more if I used stakes placed as well.

Dominican
Panty Raid
Piratesonthelake
Steve's Double
Slew's Tizzy
Christmas Kid
Off Duty
Stream Cat
Danzon
Lewis Michael
Lady Belsara
Silent Name
Mary Delaney
Massive Drama (might be fine in a dirt sprint)
Texas Fever
(spot reserved for Monba)
(spot reserved for Cowboy Cal)


On the contrary I only found three horses that fit the profile of the turf horse flourishing on the synthetics that wouldn't be able to run a step on the dirt that did actually come back to win at similar levels on the dirt:

Asi Siempre
Heatseeker
Spotsgone

Didn't Spotsgone win a Grade 3 at Hoosier last summmer?

The synethic vs dirt conversation is getting crazy tiresome. There will be tons of arguments for both sides of it. It is basically comes down to two things, people either changing their handicapping or not changing, and the fact that it benefits spread players (because of the lack of consistency). And if you play polytrack like you play turf (I contend that cushion, while the results are a little squirrely sometimes, plays like a dirt track alot more then polytrack does) then who gives a ****, handicap it like a turf race and be done with it.

Personally, handicapping is handicapping, surface aint changing that. And I love all surfaces, and quite honestly, I love Polytrack because it is more like turf racing, and I like betting on turf racing, so it fits me well.

You know what else I like about it, some of these guys actually have to TRAIN a horse instead of putting all this damn speed into them and taking advantage of bias. Look at Baffert, where you at now that you actually have to put wind into your horses? I could train on a california old track. "Work the horse 34" and on race day "Get to the rail and GO"

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

Didn't Spotsgone win a Grade 3 at Hoosier last summmer?

The synethic vs dirt conversation is getting crazy tiresome. There will be tons of arguments for both sides of it. It is basically comes down to two things, people either changing their handicapping or not changing, and the fact that it benefits spread players (because of the lack of consistency). And if you play polytrack like you play turf (I contend that cushion, while the results are a little squirrely sometimes, plays like a dirt track alot more then polytrack does) then who gives a ****, handicap it like a turf race and be done with it.

Personally, handicapping is handicapping, surface aint changing that. And I love all surfaces, and quite honestly, I love Polytrack because it is more like turf racing, and I like betting on turf racing, so it fits me well.

You know what else I like about it, some of these guys actually have to TRAIN a horse instead of putting all this damn speed into them and taking advantage of bias. Look at Baffert, where you at now that you actually have to put wind into your horses? I could train on a california old track. "Work the horse 34" and on race day "Get to the rail and GO"

Except in the case of this Derby it is probably the single most important factor to determining the outcome of the race.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Except in the case of this Derby it is probably the single most important factor to determining the outcome of the race.

And every Derby after this, or until Churchill goes synethic, which I doubt will happen.

[HaloWishingwell]

Hey I have an idea since The Breeders Cup are looking for ways to make multiple days of their event and rip more money off our hands.....how about having two separate Breeders Cup days. One on conventional dirt and the other on polytrack.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

And every Derby after this, or until Churchill goes synethic, which I doubt will happen.

By that point I think there will be a lot more information available. It is hardly a topic that has been as well discussed as every other angle in the game. For instance, I had no clue how poor Pulpit's have been on the synthetics until I went and looked it up myself. I didn't realize how good Tiznow has been on the synthetics until someone (I think Drugs) mentioned it on here and I went to look at the data. For other surface switches this sort of info would be well known and readily available on the past performances. For the synthetics there is still a severe shortage of information on the topic as the answer to the question of what is good synthetic breeding is still being learned.