Pricing the Derby

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't really disagree with you, but was the field Empire Maker faced as bad as this one?

Absolutely not... Empire Maker (foot and all) would be 3/2 against this group. 2003 was actually a pretty good field, off the top of my head their prep achievements-
* Empire Maker won the Fl Derby & Wood in impressive fasion, with 110+ Beyers
* Funny Cide had shown a lot at 2, ran well while wide in La & Fl, before a big run in the Wood with a 109 Beyer
* Peace Rules had won 3 graded stakes already with 105+ Beyers
* Buddy Gil won the SA Derby with a 105+ Beyer
* Ten Most Wanted ran a huge race in the Ill Derby with a 105+ Beyer
* Indian Express ran a big 2nd in the SA Derby
* Atswhatimtalknbout was everyone's wiseguy horse with his crazy closing rushes
* Scrimshaw finished 3rd in Calfornia and won the Lexington with a 107 (i think) Beyer

So the top 5 I listed would DEFINITELY be favored over everyone in this year's KY Derby, save Big Brown. The next 3 would have been no worse than the 2nd or 3rd choice.

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i've never seen a year where anyone thought there was a good field.

every year the complaints are the same.

so in terms of perception by those betting in 2003, there isn't much difference.

Disagree. I have never seen a worse field than this- 1993 was close though. 2003's field absolutely LAYS OVER this one.

[ArlJim78]

lol, it wasn't long ago for my derby handicapping I would separate the contenders from the rest by just looking at horses who had run at least a 105 beyer. lately the benchmark has been more like 100.

This year above 95 gets attention!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

lol, it wasn't long ago for my derby handicapping I would separate the contenders from the rest by just looking at horses who had run at least a 105 beyer. lately the benchmark has been more like 100.

This year above 95 gets attention!

While Beyers/speed figures don't necessarily tell the whole story, it's certainly a logical place to start, and I agree 100%- 105 was the number, then it was 100... this year, 95! There was a pretty hard and fast rule that any horse that hadn't run two 100+ Beyers coming in was a pretty easy toss, only Sea Hero in 25+ years had broken that (and I believe he had a 99 and a 103). Giacomo broke that rule, and this year, ONLY Big Brown even qualifies!!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

While Beyers/speed figures don't necessarily tell the whole story, it's certainly a logical place to start, and I agree 100%- 105 was the number, then it was 100... this year, 95! There was a pretty hard and fast rule that any horse that hadn't run two 100+ Beyers coming in was a pretty easy toss, only Sea Hero in 25+ years had broken that (and I believe he had a 99 and a 103). Giacomo broke that rule, and this year, ONLY Big Brown even qualifies!!

is lack of racing a factor? are the horses doing less, as they aren't as far along racing-wise as in years past?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

is lack of racing a factor? are the horses doing less, as they aren't as far along racing-wise as in years past?

Possibly... I remember the average # of starts pre-Derby was around 8, and now it seems like this year it will be around 6. I've always thought most horses don't reach their peak until their 10th start or so. No statistics to back that up, just an observation.

[wac]

I agree the 03 derby was a really good one. quality all over the place. I swear i think if all goes well with the trainging and he doesnt get a bad post i see BB at 5-2 when they spring the gate. and 2-1 when they get to turn 2 damn that aggravates me so much when that happens. Horses i bet tht win there odds always go down during the running of the race never up. Well i'll take it if its a winner. This weekend was a weird one i knew that pyro wasn't going to win the BG but didn't expect that kind of a performance. There was no reason for the horse to give it all but would like to have seen something. I told my mom who was gonna bet on pyro anyway in KD that was the best thing that could happen as long as he's not hurt. Should bump him up to at least 6-1 when they spring the gates.