Derby Grid/Graded Earnings

[SOREHOOF]

I'd like to see a point system to qualify. But I would use points earned as a 2YO.

[cowgirlintexas]

Just read that the owner of Eight Bells is considering entering her for the Derby. At this point, my $$'s on her.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by cowgirlintexas

Just read that the owner of Eight Bells is considering entering her for the Derby. At this point, my $$'s on her.

Here's the link to the story:

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44586

[hockey2315]

She has absolutely no shot. . . That would really annoy me if they send her.

I'd like to see Denis get 21st.

[hockey2315]

You don't think he has any shot so wouldn't you want him to get in?

[SOREHOOF]

I'd love to see her in! She would have as good of a shot as most of these

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You don't think he has any shot so wouldn't you want him to get in?

I'd rather see the connections suffer so we can get more apology letters.

[lemoncrush]

I would prefer a new system to decide who gets in as well, although I don't really know what would be fair.
Perhaps graded earnings in races a mile or longer. That would take out the winners of those early 2-yo stakes races.
And then maybe...the top 10 are determined by graded earnings, and after that there's some kind of point system, selection committee, etc..
Who knows.

[hockey2315]

I say 3 year old graded earnings should be worth twice as much as two year old. . . First 15 get in that way. . . Then a "promoter's option" for the last five where a panel of experts chooses. . .

[SOREHOOF]

I think it should go by grade. The 2yo stakes should be just as important. I like 2yo races it gets me going for the Derby all summer long.

[SOREHOOF]

I don't see the Delta Jackpot being worth as much as the BCJuv. Or more than the Wood for that matter.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I say 3 year old graded earnings should be worth twice as much as two year old. . . First 15 get in that way. . . Then a "promoter's option" for the last five where a panel of experts chooses. . .

I like the idea but limit the field to only the main starting gate and not the add on gate. Also set up an AE list in case a trainer scratches out.

[Scav]

Let the circus begin..

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44612

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

I like the idea but limit the field to only the main starting gate and not the add on gate. Also set up an AE list in case a trainer scratches out.

you're idea is good. we just need to survey more people on the internet to see what they want.

because 20 horses with the most graded stakes earnings is too complex.

[philcski]

My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51

Like what you are doing here, but it seems weighted towards the 20-30 range, where they are probably 3-4 horses that will be in the 50 to 80/1 range

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cardus

How did you arrive at these numbers?

I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by philcski

I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.

They look pretty spot on to me. Thanks for posting those.

I do think Visionaire and Court Vision will be considerably lower than the ones you predict at maybe 25/1 and 18/1 respectively.

[hockey2315]

16-1 on Cool Coal Man looks low. . . At least it'll mean that my future bet on him at 20-1 actually offered value. . .