draw a line through it

[Danzig]

seems most horses have a performance that is inexplicable. colonel john seems strongest from the west-but to be perfectly honest, i don't want to see a awt horse win the derby. i'm sure someone(s) will jump on me for that, but like i said, i'm being honest-and that's my feeling on it.
doesn't mean it won't happen. i also don't want to see a horse with less lifetime starts then i have fingers on one hand win it-i don't want the lightly raced horse to become even more of a trend.

many of the horses have a head scratcher. or maybe not. perhaps war pass' rotten clunker, and his only out of the money finish, was due to a change in surface. same could be said of pyro today, who has done nothing wrong in much of his career. so what changed? easy to say in his case. dirt to poly according to the talking heads on tv said that dirt to poly is much more difficult then vice versa. gayego and sierra sunset bear that out, maybe yankee bravo as well to be honest. he went poly to dirt, and finished third to pyro. then he goes back to poly and ran his worst race ever in the santa anita derby.


interesting derby coming up. i wonder if giacomo will lose his title of 'worst derby winner ever'? well, not ever-i still think gato del sol was worse, but memories for some here are short.

[whodey17]

Most years I can narrow who I like to 3-5 horses before Derby day. This year I have no clue. They all seem to be pretty even. Who knows how Colonel John will run on dirt, who knows if War Pass gets gutty and goes wire to wire and who knows who is any good. Should make for an exciting Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Most years I can narrow who I like to 3-5 horses before Derby day. This year I have no clue. They all seem to be pretty even. Who knows how Colonel John will run on dirt, who knows if War Pass gets gutty and goes wire to wire and who knows who is any good. Should make for an exciting Derby.

Hey ... if you get a chance, will you let us know what that psychic lady has to say?

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Hey ... if you get a chance, will you let us know what that psychic lady has to say?

I see the future being delivered in a truck,,,,, a UPS truck,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,No NO it's Big Brown weaving like a drunken sailor to win by 1 1/2.

[SOREHOOF]

I drew a line through the Bluegrass Stakes when it was a speed track, and I'll draw a line through it now. Pyro was not my derby horse before and I don't think any less of him now. Contender.

[MaTH716]

I think the race is a toss for Pyro and any horse that was running on the stuff for the first time. I just do not understand why horses that have soley ran on dirt would enter a prep on poly (unless it was a last chance to get earnings). Do the trainers look at it as some kind of stamina turf to dirt play? Last year I thought that Street Sense used the Bluegrass as sort of a qusi workout. I do not think he was all out to win that race last year (obviously he ran much better than Pyro did.)

One other toss point/question. Take a horse like Big Truck before yesterday. Do you toss out the race he ran in the Hutch because it was on the slop? If you do, why wouldn't you toss a race over a synthetic surface?

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Hey ... if you get a chance, will you let us know what that psychic lady has to say?

I sure will Cajun. The Arabian Nights party is always a favorite of mine.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by whodey17

I sure will Cajun. The Arabian Nights party is always a favorite of mine.

Thanks, man. It's always fun to hear about what she has to say.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Danzig

interesting derby coming up. i wonder if giacomo will lose his title of 'worst derby winner ever'? well, not ever-i still think gato del sol was worse, but memories for some here are short.

Actually, I would nominate Dust Commander and Proud Clarion. And how about Cannonade and Lil E. Tee? Go for Gin didn't do much after the Derby, either. Kauai King did win the Derby and the Preakness, and he wasn't much, either, which was displayed when he ran into Buckpasser, the year's best 3yo.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Actually, I would nominate Dust Commander and Proud Clarion. And how about Cannonade and Lil E. Tee? Go for Gin didn't do much after the Derby, either. Kauai King did win the Derby and the Preakness, and he wasn't much, either, which was displayed when he ran into Buckpasser, the year's best 3yo.

all those you mentioned had multiple wins in graded races, placings as well. some at 2 and 3, some at 3 and 4.
proud clarion and gato del sol have remarkably similar records, but if i had to choose the worst of them, i'd stick with gato del sol. and in lil e tees defense, he wasn't that bad really. not very good, but better than most give him credit for.

At 3 Won Jim Beam S.(G2), Kentucky Derby(G1)
2nd Arkansas Derby(G2)
3rd Southwest S.

At 4 Won Razorback H.(G2)
2nd Oaklawn H.(G1)

[lostcode]

Why if Pyro wins the race yesterday he is a supestar. When he loses we have to draw a line through the race? I guess I don't see the excitement in cashing $4.00 tickets. I have enjoyed the last 6 triple crown races, 6 races and 6 different winners and Barbaro paying $14.00, Jazil $18.00, Bernadini $14.00, Street Sense $10, Rags to Riches $10.00.

I want 3 more horses to win the 3 races this year, I want to pick one of the 3 races correctly and make money.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by lostcode

Why if Pyro wins the race yesterday he is a supestar. When he loses we have to draw a line through the race? I guess I don't see the excitement in cashing $4.00 tickets. I have enjoyed the last 6 triple crown races, 6 races and 6 different winners and Barbaro paying $14.00, Jazil $18.00, Bernadini $14.00, Street Sense $10, Rags to Riches $10.00.

I want 3 more horses to win the 3 races this year, I want to pick one of the 3 races correctly and make money.

do you think the race yesterday in any way will influence your betting strategy in a few weeks? will you be playing monba or cowboy cal at all? and even if pyro had won yesterday, the 20 horse field pretty much guarantees payoffs such as what you put above.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by lostcode

Why if Pyro wins the race yesterday he is a supestar. When he loses we have to draw a line through the race? I guess I don't see the excitement in cashing $4.00 tickets. I have enjoyed the last 6 triple crown races, 6 races and 6 different winners and Barbaro paying $14.00, Jazil $18.00, Bernadini $14.00, Street Sense $10, Rags to Riches $10.00.

I want 3 more horses to win the 3 races this year, I want to pick one of the 3 races correctly and make money.

$4 tickets? Pyro's gonna be like 7 or 8-1 now dude.

Oh, and Bernardini payed $27.80, guy..

[JJP]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

$4 tickets? Pyro's gonna be like 7 or 8-1 now dude.

Oh, and Bernardini payed $27.80, guy..

I suspect the 7-1 or 8-1 will NOT be the case. Other than Big Brown, I don't know who will be bet more than him. Colonel John? No way; he's unproven on real dirt. If the reasoning is that he beat Gayego, I say that reasoning is flawed because maybe Gayego is a better horse on real dirt than synthetic. War Pass? I think the public knows that he can't outsprint Big Brown and his breeding suggests he's a miler. Recapturedtheglory? No way; the horses running 1-2-3-4 coming into the stretch finished that way. Gayego? I could maybe see it since he's won in the past without the lead. But if he tries to clear, he will be in trouble. The public likes to bet closers in the Derby and based on the past history of pace meltdowns, I see Pyro at 9-2ish; no higher than 5-1.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by JJP

I suspect the 7-1 or 8-1 will NOT be the case. Other than Big Brown, I don't know who will be bet more than him. Colonel John? No way; he's unproven on real dirt. If the reasoning is that he beat Gayego, I say that reasoning is flawed because maybe Gayego is a better horse on real dirt than synthetic. War Pass? I think the public knows that he can't outsprint Big Brown and his breeding suggests he's a miler. Recapturedtheglory? No way; the horses running 1-2-3-4 coming into the stretch finished that way. Gayego? I could maybe see it since he's won in the past without the lead. But if he tries to clear, he will be in trouble. The public likes to bet closers in the Derby and based on the past history of pace meltdowns, I see Pyro at 9-2ish; no higher than 5-1.

your kinda funny, i really have laughed out loud a few times.

why cant war pass out sprint big brown ? the public knows ???? he is def. faster then big brown, he can get to the top if he wants it, war pass will be leading the derby at first call, there might be like 4-5 other's with him, but he will be up front.