Any respect for Pyro now?

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Since March 20 Santa Anita averages about 15% wire jobs. By comparison, Gulfstream is 25%, Hawthorne is 29%, Oaklawn is 29%, Tampa Bay 23%...(The major qualifier in these stats is that short priced horse winners are not counted in the calculations.)

71 races over the cushion track, just 11 wire winners, 5 horses came from second to win from those 71 and 31 (43%) of the winners came from the top half of the field. On just one card was there more more than 1 wire job.

Regardless of lengths, those stats are quite compelling.

Furthermore, anytime a horse does contest the pace or have a say in how the early portions of the race are run, he is closing on that pace. 20 lengths or five lengths... doesn't matter. Brownie Points was no more than 5 lengths off the pace in the Apple Blossom yesterday, but she was still a closer in the way the race was run.

I'm not saying Colonel John had a tough trip, or a perfect trip, but that he was another in a long line of horses to win at Santa Anita in the recent weeks from off the pace.

IM not trying to argue just present another way to look at the race. Kinda like an owner telling a jock he wants the horse running 2nd or 3rd on the nackstretch with no regarde as to the time. Im no expert but in my opinion is that SA has been a more than fair track.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by jpops757

SA has been a more than fair track.

What is fair though? I'm not saying SA is unfair, I'm just saying it's been tilted a bit towards closers, not that it's necessarily good or bad.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What is fair though? I'm not saying SA is unfair, I'm just saying it's been tilted a bit towards closers, not that it's necessarily good or bad.

More often than not the best horse with the best trip wins. Less wins by horses that win with horses loose on the lead and fewer wins as a result of a race falling apart,

[Thunder Gulch]

The Colonel John synthetic to dirt switch becomes one of the biggest questions in handicapping this year's Derby. At least they are sending him to Churchill instead of Keenland, so at least we can watch him work on dirt. I was there when Tiznow won the Classic at Churchill, so I don't see why CJ can't handle that surface.

I still like Pyro because of his explosiveness when asked, and his back class tells me he may not have run his best yet this spring.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The Colonel John synthetic to dirt switch becomes one of the biggest questions in handicapping this year's Derby. At least they are sending him to Churchill instead of Keenland, so at least we can watch him work on dirt. I was there when Tiznow won the Classic at Churchill, so I don't see why CJ can't handle that surface.

I still like Pyro because of his explosiveness when asked, and his back class tells me he may not have run his best yet this spring.

it isn't a question, colonel John will be fine, he is bred to even be better on the dirt then the synthetic/turf

Also, to add a comment about Recapturetheglory, the horse has zero shot to make the top three in the Derby, and I would be surprised if he has a shot to reach the top 10.

ET Baird in this Derby is a godsend for me because he is f'n going to the lead, and will go 22 to get it, bad news for horses like Mr. Brown, War Pass, Bob's Blackjack.....

[johnny pinwheel]

horses like war pass and j be k are better off running short. these guys get a 2 yo to win big races and right away they are thinking "derby". war pass will probably never win a race over 1 mile 1/16 unless its sloppy or a bad field. the track on saturday was very fair i did not see a bias. i saw war pass throw in the towel on the turn, he was tired. j be k, tale of ikati,visionaire and yankee bravo came out of races with pyro and all ran ok. that tells me pyro is pretty good ,the final times don't matter and people get worked up over it. the longer the distance the more that horse has. colnel john seems to be the same way . they don't flash speed or get the hype but they pack a punch in the final 1/8, thats how you win the derby. the speed freak horses that get all the attention win about 1 in 10 derbies if that. i went down there a few years ago and like a fool bet bellamy road, my friend bet giacomo guess who was buying dinner ?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

it isn't a question, colonel John will be fine, he is bred to even be better on the dirt then the synthetic/turf

I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.

Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:

Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89

Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.

As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.

However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.

From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.

Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:

Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89

Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.

As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.

However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.

From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.

Does he really need to improve given the trip that he is going to get in the Derby, he will be in that covented 5-10 part of the pack hopefully 2w-3w (rail is always garbage unless you are Borel who just seems to always get through)

Personally, I will be using alot of synethic horses on Derby Day, obviously I am going to go off prior dirt form also, but I think to just toss horses that have never seen dirt will be a large mistake.

What are CJ's odds on Derby day, if War Pass goes, War Pass is probably 7/1 given the distance questions, Big Brown is probably in the 4/1 stage, Pyro is in the 5/1 unless this weekend is crazy impressive, so could CJ be in the 10-12/1 range?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think CJ might beat War Pass out of 3rd choice in the betting.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think CJ might beat War Pass out of 3rd choice in the betting.

That low and only exotic play for me, but if I can get 10-12/1 on him, might get a little nuts...

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.

Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:

Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89

Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.

As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.

However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.

From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.

well armed ran huge in dubai.

[pgiaco]

Biggest obstacle for Pyro is going to be the mutt on his back Derby day.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cardus

As I relayed to another poster in a PM recently, I believe that if the horses out west were running up big figures (Beyer, TG, Ragozin, etc.) on the synthetic surfaces, then I'd wonder if they were merely synthetic performers. Are they running big figures? It doesn't seem like they are, though I admit I do not have the TG numbers. They certainly are not earning big Beyer figures. (I saw another 90+ BSF for the Santa Anita Derby.)

Unless you think that the west coast contingent as a group is garbage, why couldn't Colonel John (and others, perhaps) run even modestly better on dirt, which would look good on Derby day?

The out west 3 year olds are NOT running better figures, at least from a TG perspective. I can't recall the numbers, but I know that Colonel John has a really good progressing pattern, I just hope that he didn't explode in his last effort.

Matter of fact, I don't think a 3 year old has broken the 1 or 2 barrier on the west coast. I know that Big Brown has, and Pyro is right there.

[jcs11204]

i think pyro has a legit chance to clunk up for 5th, i just dont like this horse, and feel good about him not running 1-2-3 in the derby. i rate a number of horses higher.....

war pass
colonel john
dennis of cork
tale of ekati
cool coal man
z humor
even court vision i think can still improve in the key 3rd start off of a layoff, i think court vision will 100% outfinish pyro in the derby