4/5 (AQU): Gr. I Wood & Carter; Bay Shore; Excelsior

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Maybe I'm naive in thinking so, but isn't Inner Light in there just to run with War Pass? He has the exact same ownership (IEAH AND WinStar) and really has little chance to win the race outright. It's also awfully precarious that they put Chucky Lopez on him. That means he will most likely be gunned, if Chucky can get him out of the gate.

NT

I'm also under the assumption that InNer Light was entered to ensure there is a quick pace and that War Pass does not get an uncontested lead. C Lo pretty much seals the deal as he's going to ride like a bat out of hell.

[letswastemoney]

Nite Light must think he's sprinting by only being in a 9 furlong race instead of the insane distances he specializes in.

[jcs11204]

if inner light goes, which it seems like he will, he actually should be sent hard with cc, i feel the next most likely winner is court vision,

[philcski]

You know, I have this odd feeling about War Pass. There's a horse that he REALLY reminded me of last year, between his progression and absolute domination of his competition at 2 with monster figures. Unfortunately, at 3, he's again followed the same progression as the other champion.

[Pedigree Ann]

The difference between War Pass and Devil's Bag is that DB was bred to run long and improve with age, whereas War Pass isn't. DB was a full brother to Glorious Song (a champion at 4 and 5) and to Saint Ballado (won the Arlington Classic at 3), so a dominant 3yo campaign could reasonably be expected. War Pass's stakes winning half-sister Oath was a G1 winner at 2 who didn't train on at 3, and we haven't seen Cherokee Runs (like Kafwain) get better with age.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I was thinking the same thing. I was merely pointing out the distinct correlation between the two in when and where they ran and how they did in those races.

The fact is, pedigree or not, Devil's Bag did NOT get better with age- he ran slower as a 3yo and lost to horses he destroyed at 2.

In my opinion, pedigree is a great tool to determine what should happen when horses try new things, but once he/she attempts a new task that actual performance should take precedence over pedigree.