4/5 (HAW): Illinois Derby (Gr. II)

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

There are three 8.5f races at Hawthorne on Saturday before the 9f Illinois Derby.
I think it is unwise to settle on how you are going to play this race until you see the results of those three races and can better determine how the track is playing that day.
As Scav seemed to suggest, it seems that the Hawthorne course sometimes plays slightly differently on Illinois Derby day than it does at other times of the meet.........especially if the horses have to contend with ostrich turds in the stretch, as they have in years past.

I think the 4th race may give a hint on the 'type' of track we're dealing with. A couple of solid frontrunners and some mid-pack and closers as well. The first is a $4000 claimer and the second is a straight maiden affair. Not sure either of those will be too reliable. I just haven't seen horses make up a ton of ground in the stretch so far at the meet.

[lemoncrush]

If the track is souped up with the inside bias, I'll consider playing Recapture the glory at a nice price. If it looks to be playing fair, I may take a stab at the outside horse, Real Appeal. He nearly won the the KJC last fall with a brutal trip, but I'm wondering how "key" that race really is, with regards to how Anal Nakal and Blackberry Road have failed to progress as many expected.