How good is Big Brown?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

The filly that won the Bonnie Miss was beat 20 lengths by Big Brown. If just taken the final times into consideration she would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack of the Derby with Majestic Warrior, Nistle's Crunch, Face the Cat, etc who were also beat by BB by 20 or so lengths.

I don't think this is the right way to think about it. . .

[cmorioles]

The official Beyer is 106, which is exactly what I figured with a 120 raw and a 14 variant for the last two dirt races.

Isn't something done to the track between pretty much every race? I doubt we can tell with the naked eye, or even binoculars, what it is that changes the speed of the surface.

[Travis Stone]

The track getting scraped for the big race is not a new phenomenon. It's frustrating, because final times on their own don't carry as much weight anymore with the advent of speed figures. They could have run it in in 1:51 yesterday, but the figures would have still come out with a fast effort.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The track getting scraped for the big race is not a new phenomenon. It's frustrating, because final times on their own don't carry as much weight anymore with the advent of speed figures. They could have run it in in 1:51 yesterday, but the figures would have still come out with a fast effort.

That is the funny thing. Only the most novice of handicappers would care about final time. If the debacle that has been Santa Anita proved anything, it is that raw time is meaningless. For some reason, the tracks still seem to think people care about the final time though.

[Danzig]

i'm just surprised that no one has posted the ubiquitous 'i wonder how much faster he'd have gone if kent had gotten after him' post.

[Danzig]

i do have a question tho.

i just read the write up on t'bred times and they say that his stamina was never depleted. but what about his stretch run? was he weaving like an irishman on st paddys day because he was green? or was he rubber legged because he ran out of gas?

Originally Posted by Danzig

i do have a question tho.

i just read the write up on t'bred times and they say that his stamina was never depleted. but what about his stretch run? was he weaving like an irishman on st paddys day because he was green? or was he rubber legged because he ran out of gas?

He was blowing very hard after the race when they were talking to kent.
I remember thinking I wanted him to walk it out, not just sit and do an interview.

[hockey2315]

I just watched the race again and he didn't look too good in the stretch. That doesn't bode well for the derby at all.

[ELA]

I don't think his drifting/swaying in the stretch had to do with getting tired, not nearly as much as it had to do with other factors (which I won't get into here). I am not saying he'll stay either. At this point, I am indifferent. As far as the Derby, for me, the verdict is still out but it's not looking positive.

Eric

[wac]

As i was watching this race yesertday i just kept thinking that surely this horse is gonna give up the ghost at some point.And he just didn't i know that there are some ?'s about the track but stil its just unreal to me that the horse went 45 for the half and just kept going. Have a lot of you seen that? I know that Bellamy Rd in the wood i guess comes up but something else was pointed out and that was the fact that the horse was weaving back and forth and a lot of the times it seems that people say that they are racing greenly but i have always wondered if it was b/c they are running out of gas. All in all it was an unreal display and i was awestruck for like 30mins afterwards.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I just watched the race again and he didn't look too good in the stretch. That doesn't bode well for the derby at all.

with all the extra ground he covered late, he probably ran 9.5f yesterday. looked like franco harris out there.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Isn't something done to the track between pretty much every race? I doubt we can tell with the naked eye, or even binoculars, what it is that changes the speed of the surface.

You mean there isnt a big scraper with a neon sign attached to it saying "NOW SCRAPING"? Actually the addition of water especially on a hot day will do alot to tighten up a dirt track.