How good is Big Brown?

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't doubt cmorioles' speed figs either. But it should be relatively easy to confirm that something significant was done to the track just before the Fl Derby, shouldn't it? It's not like they can lull an entire attendance to sleep while they back down an entire track.

--Dunbar

I was trackside and did not see anything done to the track.

johnny pinwheel
he's not peddling anything that track changed or the timer is wrong. the last 3 races on dirt were run at 1 and 1/8. the last two produced simular times. either the bonnie miss was bad horses and they ran 20 lenghts slower or the track got the "scrape". they always want these big races to look fast. unless its a poly track. i also feel that BB didn't beat much in that group either.

The filly that won the Bonnie Miss was beat 20 lengths by Big Brown. If just taken the final times into consideration she would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack of the Derby with Majestic Warrior, Nistle's Crunch, Face the Cat, etc who were also beat by BB by 20 or so lengths.

I say this to describe how impressive I believe his performace was (and to a lesser extent Smooth Air's race as well). Quite frankly I thought BB was an absolute 100% bet against based on the prior competition he faced, the impossible post, and the odds associated with the probability that he would win (or even hit the board). I was proved wrong.

I don't agree with the minimization of the effort based on the "group" he faced. Outside of horses named Pyro, War Pass, and Dennis of Cork the competition would always be questioned. Quite frankly he has accomplished more at this time of his career (March 29th of 3 year old season) than the past 2 champion 3 year olds (Bernardini won a NW1 at GP and Curlin had won a G3 in Arkansas in his 2nd carreer start over the likes of Officer Rocket and Teuflesburg).

[Danzig]

it's not just the time of the bonnie miss that brought up questions regarding the surface, but electrifys time as well.

[Danzig]

...

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

The filly that won the Bonnie Miss was beat 20 lengths by Big Brown. If just taken the final times into consideration she would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack of the Derby with Majestic Warrior, Nistle's Crunch, Face the Cat, etc who were also beat by BB by 20 or so lengths.

I don't think this is the right way to think about it. . .

[cmorioles]

The official Beyer is 106, which is exactly what I figured with a 120 raw and a 14 variant for the last two dirt races.

Isn't something done to the track between pretty much every race? I doubt we can tell with the naked eye, or even binoculars, what it is that changes the speed of the surface.

[Travis Stone]

The track getting scraped for the big race is not a new phenomenon. It's frustrating, because final times on their own don't carry as much weight anymore with the advent of speed figures. They could have run it in in 1:51 yesterday, but the figures would have still come out with a fast effort.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The track getting scraped for the big race is not a new phenomenon. It's frustrating, because final times on their own don't carry as much weight anymore with the advent of speed figures. They could have run it in in 1:51 yesterday, but the figures would have still come out with a fast effort.

That is the funny thing. Only the most novice of handicappers would care about final time. If the debacle that has been Santa Anita proved anything, it is that raw time is meaningless. For some reason, the tracks still seem to think people care about the final time though.

[Danzig]

i'm just surprised that no one has posted the ubiquitous 'i wonder how much faster he'd have gone if kent had gotten after him' post.

[Danzig]

i do have a question tho.

i just read the write up on t'bred times and they say that his stamina was never depleted. but what about his stretch run? was he weaving like an irishman on st paddys day because he was green? or was he rubber legged because he ran out of gas?

[hockey2315]

I just watched the race again and he didn't look too good in the stretch. That doesn't bode well for the derby at all.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Isn't something done to the track between pretty much every race? I doubt we can tell with the naked eye, or even binoculars, what it is that changes the speed of the surface.

You mean there isnt a big scraper with a neon sign attached to it saying "NOW SCRAPING"? Actually the addition of water especially on a hot day will do alot to tighten up a dirt track.

[Riot]

I was trackside and did not see anything done to the track.

It was harrowed (I can tell from the video) - do you know if it was watered?