How good is Big Brown?

[fpsoxfan]

FP he's not peddling shiat, he's on accurate here.

Jim, I understand now. I've already clarified this.

[johnny pinwheel]

he's not peddling anything that track changed or the timer is wrong. the last 3 races on dirt were run at 1 and 1/8. the last two produced simular times. either the bonnie miss was bad horses and they ran 20 lenghts slower or the track got the "scrape". they always want these big races to look fast. unless its a poly track. i also feel that BB didn't beat much in that group either.

[Dunbar]

I don't doubt cmorioles' speed figs either. But it should be relatively easy to confirm that something significant was done to the track just before the Fl Derby, shouldn't it? It's not like they can lull an entire attendance to sleep while they back down an entire track.

--Dunbar

[slotdirt]

The point about Electrify in the last race at GP last night is a great one, and thanks to those who pointed out those numbers. Nobody seemed to be closing in the last two stakes races yesterday, just for whatever that is worth. Big Brown was all over the track the last 1/16th as well. Just a few day-after thoughts.

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't doubt cmorioles' speed figs either. But it should be relatively easy to confirm that something significant was done to the track just before the Fl Derby, shouldn't it? It's not like they can lull an entire attendance to sleep while they back down an entire track.

--Dunbar

I was trackside and did not see anything done to the track.

johnny pinwheel
he's not peddling anything that track changed or the timer is wrong. the last 3 races on dirt were run at 1 and 1/8. the last two produced simular times. either the bonnie miss was bad horses and they ran 20 lenghts slower or the track got the "scrape". they always want these big races to look fast. unless its a poly track. i also feel that BB didn't beat much in that group either.

The filly that won the Bonnie Miss was beat 20 lengths by Big Brown. If just taken the final times into consideration she would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack of the Derby with Majestic Warrior, Nistle's Crunch, Face the Cat, etc who were also beat by BB by 20 or so lengths.

I say this to describe how impressive I believe his performace was (and to a lesser extent Smooth Air's race as well). Quite frankly I thought BB was an absolute 100% bet against based on the prior competition he faced, the impossible post, and the odds associated with the probability that he would win (or even hit the board). I was proved wrong.

I don't agree with the minimization of the effort based on the "group" he faced. Outside of horses named Pyro, War Pass, and Dennis of Cork the competition would always be questioned. Quite frankly he has accomplished more at this time of his career (March 29th of 3 year old season) than the past 2 champion 3 year olds (Bernardini won a NW1 at GP and Curlin had won a G3 in Arkansas in his 2nd carreer start over the likes of Officer Rocket and Teuflesburg).

[Danzig]

it's not just the time of the bonnie miss that brought up questions regarding the surface, but electrifys time as well.

[Danzig]

...

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

The filly that won the Bonnie Miss was beat 20 lengths by Big Brown. If just taken the final times into consideration she would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack of the Derby with Majestic Warrior, Nistle's Crunch, Face the Cat, etc who were also beat by BB by 20 or so lengths.

I don't think this is the right way to think about it. . .

[cmorioles]

The official Beyer is 106, which is exactly what I figured with a 120 raw and a 14 variant for the last two dirt races.

Isn't something done to the track between pretty much every race? I doubt we can tell with the naked eye, or even binoculars, what it is that changes the speed of the surface.

[Travis Stone]

The track getting scraped for the big race is not a new phenomenon. It's frustrating, because final times on their own don't carry as much weight anymore with the advent of speed figures. They could have run it in in 1:51 yesterday, but the figures would have still come out with a fast effort.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Isn't something done to the track between pretty much every race? I doubt we can tell with the naked eye, or even binoculars, what it is that changes the speed of the surface.

You mean there isnt a big scraper with a neon sign attached to it saying "NOW SCRAPING"? Actually the addition of water especially on a hot day will do alot to tighten up a dirt track.

[Riot]

I was trackside and did not see anything done to the track.

It was harrowed (I can tell from the video) - do you know if it was watered?

[Sightseek]

Wicked good.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Wicked good.

I said after the comeback race earlier in the month that Big Brown would be better than any horse that would run in either the Florida Derby, Blue Grass or Wood not named War Pass. I still feel that way. There is no way this horse doesn't finish in the exacta in the Derby if he's in the gate.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I said after the comeback race earlier in the month that Big Brown would be better than any horse that would run in either the Florida Derby, Blue Grass or Wood not named War Pass. I still feel that way. There is no way this horse doesn't finish in the exacta in the Derby if he's in the gate.

that's going out on a limb.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I said after the comeback race earlier in the month that Big Brown would be better than any horse that would run in either the Florida Derby, Blue Grass or Wood not named War Pass. I still feel that way. There is no way this horse doesn't finish in the exacta in the Derby if he's in the gate.

Really?!?! Well then it sounds like you're going to be making a lot of money come May 3rd. . . I guess I won't