How good is Big Brown?

[TheSpyder]

Times in 100ths: :22.76 :45.83 1:10.08 1:35.18 1:48.16

Which means by comparision, for what its worth BB would have beaten Shes All Eltish by 18 lengths. The race before was:

Times in 100ths: :24.35 :48.36 1:12.79 1:38.17 1:51.80

With all the talk about the girls beating the boys in times this year this puts another stamp on this race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

Times in 100ths: :22.76 :45.83 1:10.08 1:35.18 1:48.16

Which means by comparision, for what its worth BB would have beaten Shes All Eltish by 18 lengths. The race before was:

Times in 100ths: :24.35 :48.36 1:12.79 1:38.17 1:51.80

With all the talk about the girls beating the boys in times this year this puts another stamp on this race.

Big Brown ran a final time that yields a Beyer figure 33 points faster than the Bonnie Miss winner.

If upset winner She's All Eltish ran back to her 90 Beyer she ran last time, that puts Big Brown's figure at a Ghostzapper like 123.

However, it's obvious that the fairly moderate pace of the Bonnie Miss and the extremely fast pace of the Florida Derby had a big impact on the final times.

I just hit the pick 4. Should I act like a huge know-it-all douche right now?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I just hit the pick 4. Should I act like a huge know-it-all douche right now?

Yes.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Seems like the track got faster. I mean Electrify is an alright horse, but he just shaded 1:48 for 9 furlongs.

Good point.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Seems like the track got faster. I mean Electrify is an alright horse, but he just shaded 1:48 for 9 furlongs.

is the track still drying out or is it completely dry from all that rain last week?

I'm not sure I should act like a douche. It paid a little lower than Big Brown's win. And I also posted exactly what I should bet.

I better wait and work on my douche skills. It just isn't cutting it this time.

[fpsoxfan]

I've stayed on the sidelines up until this point. Right now based on what I've seen this is the best 3 year old running.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I've stayed on the sidelines up until this point. Right now based on what I've seen this is the best 3 year old running.

and War Pass was a few weeks back.....four lifetime starts, just knows the front and Dutrow, good luck @ 2-1 or less in the Derby....this isn't your type of horse Pat!

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

and War Pass was a few weeks back.....four lifetime starts, just knows the front and Dutrow, good luck @ 2-1 or less in the Derby....this isn't your type of horse Pat!

Now I didn't say I'd bet him. But, that was an impressive performance.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Now I didn't say I'd bet him. But, that was an impressive performance.

he's a better, bet against

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

he's a better, bet against

I thought for sure he'd fold in the stretch. I had a 2-12-all triple
and a 2-12-all-all dime super.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't think it has rained there since the beginning of this week, so you would think that it's dried out. Who knows what these supers do, but that Electrify time sticks out like a sore thumb to me.

It would be interesting to see what they did inbetween, because it was only what, 40 minutes until that last race??

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Yeah about that much time. Maybe I'm off and Electrify just freaked, but it does seem interesting.

I posted this elsewhere, I'll do it here. The track was "suped" before the Fla Derby, not after:

Big Brown probably ran low 100s again, and the rest just stunk.

The raw figures for the three 9f races, pace and speed (projection):

R9: 92, 89 (I project this one as about a 98, so the track would be 9 slow)
R10: 128, 120 (I project this one as about 105, so suddenly the track is 15 fast?)
R12: 128, 123 (project at 110, so 13 fast)

Nice job by the super.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I posted this elsewhere, I'll do it here. The track was "suped" before the Fla Derby, not after:

Big Brown probably ran low 100s again, and the rest just stunk.

The raw figures for the three 9f races, pace and speed (projection):

R9: 92, 89 (I project this one as about a 98, so the track would be 9 slow)
R10: 128, 120 (I project this one as about 105, so suddenly the track is 15 fast?)
R12: 128, 123 (project at 110, so 13 fast)

Nice job by the super.

Do you really believe the shiat you are peddling?

[cmorioles]

What is it you don't believe? All I'm saying is the track speed basically became 25 points faster between the Bonnie Miss and the Florida Derby.

[fpsoxfan]

What are you trying to say? Don't you think this is a little pre-mature with this souped up theory?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I posted this elsewhere, I'll do it here. The track was "suped" before the Fla Derby, not after:

Big Brown probably ran low 100s again, and the rest just stunk.

The raw figures for the three 9f races, pace and speed (projection):

R9: 92, 89 (I project this one as about a 98, so the track would be 9 slow)
R10: 128, 120 (I project this one as about 105, so suddenly the track is 15 fast?)
R12: 128, 123 (project at 110, so 13 fast)

Nice job by the super.

I think it's fair to give Big Brown some improvement, so call it 107, and that gives Smooth Air a very plausible high 90's (96-98). Don't know what to think of that last race of the day. Seems unbelievably fast. Very difficult to make figures, like old school GP.

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Do you really believe the shiat you are peddling?

FP he's not peddling shiat, he's dead on accurate here.

Originally Posted by The Bid

The South American is a crow, someone has to run third.

I love it when you call horses crows, I laugh every time You're right though, someone had to run 3rd, and he probably ran about the same as he did in Peru here, a mid 80's Beyer.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by philcski

I think it's fair to give Big Brown some improvement, so call it 107, and that gives Smooth Air a very plausible high 90's (96-98). Don't know what to think of that last race of the day. Seems unbelievably fast. Very difficult to make figures, like old school GP.



FP he's not peddling shiat, he's dead on accurate here.



I love it when you call horses crows, I laugh every time You're right though, someone had to run 3rd, and he probably ran about the same as he did in Peru here, a mid 80's Beyer.

Are you guys talking in terms of BSF's?

I don't know what the par racing times are at GP. I do have the Beyer chart in front of me from his book Beyer on Speed. Big Brown's 1:48 for a 1 1/8 is a 122.

Beyer Speed Ratings for 1 1/8
Time BSF
1:48 122
-1 120
-2 119
-3 117
-4 115
1:49 113
-1 111
-2 108
-3 106
-4 105
1:50 104
-1 102
-2 100
-3 99
-4 97
1:51 96
-1 93
-2 90
-3 88
-4 87

These are the base numbers. Once they calculate the variant there might be some projection involved in giving these races a BSF.

[fpsoxfan]

FP he's not peddling shiat, he's on accurate here.

Jim, I understand now. I've already clarified this.