How good is Big Brown?

Originally Posted by Scav

He isn't winning the KY Derby. I think we all overvalued what was in this field. And I was one of them. Elysium Fields looked like **** (washed out bad) and nothign else ran. Smooth Jazz ran well but flattened out.

I had 20 across on smooth air and thought I was a lock when he started moving and seeing those quick fractions. Erghhh Big Brown is a monster, Scavs.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I had 20 across on smooth air and thought I was a lock when he started moving and seeing those quick fractions. Erghhh Big Brown is a monster, Scavs.

Thought the same thing coach. Just have a ho-hum exacta

[slotdirt]

I'd like to see how that final quarter went. Looked pretty rubber legged to me coming down the stretch. Smooth Air actually seemed to be gaining ground in the end, but that could also be more of a byproduct of the relatively small usage of the whip in the last 1/16th by Desormeaux.

I am with Scav on this one. Curlin proved last year that even the greatest of horses don't win the Derby with as little foundation as Big Brown will have coming into this year's version.

[Oaklawnfan]

Wowza, Man he was awsome! Is there a KY Derby Future board with him on it? I'm getting weak kneed on my Dennis of Cork wager.

[TheSpyder]

I agree, whose going to stop him? Plus he gets better as he gets more experience.

Spyder

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I had 20 across on smooth air and thought I was a lock when he started moving and seeing those quick fractions. Erghhh Big Brown is a monster, Scavs.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

I agree, whose going to stop him? Plus he gets better as he gets more experience.

Spyder

altho he looked good, the rest of the field wasn't much. but it was better than many performances from some of the other supposed derby horses.
what can stop him? that horse is unsound as the dollar.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I had 20 across on smooth air and thought I was a lock when he started moving and seeing those quick fractions. Erghhh Big Brown is a monster, Scavs.

He might be a monster, this I don't disagree with BUT he ran absolutely MONSTEROUS, and he could have 90 days off and he won't repeat the effort. My guess is that sheet number is in the -2 to -3 range, which would be a 4pt top. He will be the 5/2 favorite of the KY Derby, and I will be tossing him out of the first three spots.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Scav

He might be a monster, this I don't disagree with BUT he ran absolutely MONSTEROUS, and he could have 90 days off and he won't repeat the effort. My guess is that sheet number is in the -2 to -3 range, which would be a 4pt top. He will be the 5/2 favorite of the KY Derby, and I will be tossing him out of the first three spots.

Wow.

And you're already talking about tossing him out? Will you be so sure if he comes out of this just fine and his connections continue to exude confidence right up to the Derby? I don't necessarily disagree with your logic, but I'm waiting and watching how things develop.

[slotdirt]

Will I use him on my tickets on May 3rd in L-ville? Sure. Do I think he's the winner? No chance, lance.

[Payson Dave]

Looking forward to hearing how BB comes out of the Race...very impressive today but hard to imagine that the effort won't have taken a lot out of a horse who has foot problems....Dutrow didn't seem to want to take much time to talk with J Edwards right after the race...

[slotdirt]

I'll be interested to see the final fractions in particular.

[Bobby Fischer]

you guys do know that no horse has ever come back sound and healthy after winning from the 12 post 9 furlongs GP main track

[Riot]

The race replay is up on Bloodhorse TCM page. Here's the link: http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/index.asp

1/4 22.76 11.28
1/2 45.83 11.46
3/4 1:10:08 11.68
1m 1:35:18 11.89
1 1/8 1:48:16 12.98

My take: Smooth Air looked good at top of stretch, then struggled a bit, but then got straightened out and was closing well and striding out - did have BB in his sights. Probably will get Derby distance fine.

Big Brown ran against nobody, with no real pressure, out front all by himself. Jock knew he had it in the middle of the turn. He was being wrapped up on the last 1/16 (as Smooth Air was indeed closing a bit) No question he'll get Derby distance easily. And he didn't look hard used at all.

Tomicito - may close into 3 or 4th in the Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'll be interested to see the final fractions in particular.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...32908USA10.pdf

[TheSpyder]

Times in 100ths: :22.76 :45.83 1:10.08 1:35.18 1:48.16

Which means by comparision, for what its worth BB would have beaten Shes All Eltish by 18 lengths. The race before was:

Times in 100ths: :24.35 :48.36 1:12.79 1:38.17 1:51.80

With all the talk about the girls beating the boys in times this year this puts another stamp on this race.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Scav

He might be a monster, this I don't disagree with BUT he ran absolutely MONSTEROUS, and he could have 90 days off and he won't repeat the effort. My guess is that sheet number is in the -2 to -3 range, which would be a 4pt top. He will be the 5/2 favorite of the KY Derby, and I will be tossing him out of the first three spots.

lower then 5-2 unless war pass comes back and freaks

[miraja2]

With regards to Tomcito, I was slightly impressed with his race today.
On the one hand, he simply ran by some moderately talented colts who had made a much more concerted effort than he did to stay close to a hot pace. And, as others mentioned, he was still nowhere near the winner at the end.

But, given that this was the colt's first start off of a long layoff, and at a distance that is probably not his best, the fact that he wasn't close to a nice colt like Big Brown isn't particularly shocking. Tomcito actually broke pretty sharply but then seemed very awkward going into the first turn (he might have been bumped slightly....I can't tell) and settled back to last. From there, I thought his race wasn't bad at all. He might turn out to be nothing, but when stretched out to 10f in the future, he seems like the type that might win some halfway decent stakes races if the pace is hot enough in front of him.