Tomcito's gotten a little bit of hype, with comparisons to Cannonero II, so I'm guessing he gets bet down from his morning line with people looking for the proverbial dark horse. But Tomcito seems to be a sustained runner -- he came from pretty far back to win the Nacional -- and I don't think this race sets up for him if that's true.
BB's gotten more hype than maybe any horse on the trail this year. He'll be low odds no matter what. He is, after all, the best horse Desormeaux has ever ridden.
I think it's likely that Smooth Air is at least 10-1 given, as you say, the possibility that many of these horses could move forward here, and I'm hoping he gets lost in the crowd (betting-wise). But I think Stutts has him cranked up as far as he can go at this point, and I think he'll handle the early pace just fine with something left. A 10-1 horse on top of the tri will yield a decent payout.
I think the early pace is the main concern for Smooth Air. If he's on or near the lead it could be lights out for the rest of the field. I don't think distance limitations matter that much on this course.
03-28-2008, 04:24 PM
Hybrid Mode
