3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[whodey17]

Does anyone scratch their head with Big Brown being the m/l fav at 3-1 given the history of the outisde posts at Gulfstream going 1 1/8? I wonder why Elysium Fields is not the fav. Oh well, be interesting to see the odds at post.

[Danzig]

well, at least they have a ready made excuse in case of a loss. i would also remind everyone what we just saw happen with the previously undefeated derby favorite. horses can overcome some things. BUT can a lightly raced horse overcome their peers, and a very poor post draw that hasn't produced a winner at this distance in four years?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Does anyone scratch their head with Big Brown being the m/l fav at 3-1 given the history of the outisde posts at Gulfstream going 1 1/8?

No. Big Brown has monster figures and wins. The morning line may even be too high.. He'll be 2/1.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No. Big Brown has monster figures and wins. The morning line may even be too high.. He'll be 2/1.

It isn't THAT monsterous, I haven't seen them yet but BB ran a 1 last out according to Bloodhorse, and my guess is that Elysium Fields ran pretty close to that, maybe the 2 range, I could be completely wrong though, we will know tonight when they are put out

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No. Big Brown has monster figures and wins. The morning line may even be too high.. He'll be 2/1.

Same figure as Elysium Fields, but EF's number has alot of wideness built into it. Not that I am touting this horse, but Hey Byrn's number two back would smoke BB and EF, but that was at a mile.

[robfla]

Not too much mention of Hey Byrn. He appears to me in tip-top form, loves the track and don't underestimate his trainer who is 18% in Graded Stakes. His running style is perfect for a race like this, and having a jockey that isn't a "top name" he will be an overlay.

my tri:

9 /1,2,6,8/ all = $40
9 in the 2nd slot too.

Originally Posted by robfla

Not too much mention of Hey Byrn. He appears to me in tip-top form, loves the track and don't underestimate his trainer who is 18% in Graded Stakes. His running style is perfect for a race like this, and having a jockey that isn't a "top name" he will be an overlay.

my tri:

9 /1,2,6,8/ all = $40
9 in the 2nd slot too.

My only knock on him is he's lazy out of the gate. And with that post it's a recipe for disaster.

[King Glorious]

Big Brown to win over Fierce Wind with a side bet on the other Zito.

[ShadowRoll]

1,2 w/ 1,2,12 w/ 1,2,4,5,8,12 = $16

Question whether Smooth Air can get the distance, but like the price.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

We'll see how those monster figures play out against this field. Bad post and all, we should see how good he really is.

My feeling is that while he certainly could win, he was likely going to be overbet in this race regardless of post position. The fact that he drew post twelve makes me think that he will be overbet even more.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by miraja2

My feeling is that while he certainly could win, he was likely going to be overbet in this race regardless of post position. The fact that he drew post twelve makes me think that he will be overbet even more.

Opposite in regards to the post, people will pull back now because of it. Bettors are not stupid, at least the weekend warriors are not, they know it is impossible to win from out there.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He'll still be the favorite, I'm pretty confident in that. I also don't think people are as aware as you think. Read some of these threads.

I am not too confident in him running, regardless of what is said to the media. I don't want to get my hopes up, because like you, I am tossing out of the first two spots, and I doubt I am playing the tri.

The horse is obviously good, but this post crushes his chances of winning, and honestly, if he does win, I am ok with that also because he will be the Derby favorite then, and he will have to run so huge to win this race, that he will be gutted.

BB might be the horse that just keeps on giving because I crushed him in his opener at Toga, and I plan on playing against him on Saturday and this saturday isn't terribly important because the result will benefit me either way. He wins and I get to toss the derby favorite with confidence, he loses I probably hit the race.

If he does run, and run poorly, I wouldn't be surprised to see them run in the Lexington, or even the Holy Bull closing weekend at Gulfstream.

I was looking at a Florida Derby thread on another board and the consensus was Tomcito was going to win. Will this board ever reach that level of crazy?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I was looking at a Florida Derby thread on another board and the consensus was Tomcito was going to win. Will this board ever reach that level of crazy?

I never knew racing fans in Peru had their own message board.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Scav

He wins and I get to toss the derby favorite with confidence, he loses I probably hit the race.

That's exactly my plan. Take a stand against him this weekend and if he does happen to win then I've probably found my Derby horse.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

That's exactly my plan. Take a stand against him this weekend and if he does happen to win then I've probably found my Derby horse.

So if he wins, you like him to win the Derby? that is exact opposite that I said?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Does anyone scratch their head with Big Brown being the m/l fav at 3-1 given the history of the outisde posts at Gulfstream going 1 1/8? I wonder why Elysium Fields is not the fav. Oh well, be interesting to see the odds at post.

I don't think it is all that unusual. The outside post certainly hurts his chances considerably, but I think everyone would agree that it doesn't completely ruin his chances. If he actually turns out to be a very special horse, he might still win.
Also, regarding the M/L, as I know you already know, this just reflects what the linemaker thinks the public will do. Many people that will be playing this particular race don't have a clue about the numbers of outside posts at that track.