3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[tiggerv]

Last chart since I need to get back to work. This is about as severe a case of inside bias you will ever see. The inside 3 posts win MUCH more than they should on a fair track. I will definitely look at Fierce Wind and Smooth Air a lot more closely now that I know the draw.

Date Race# Cond Class WinPP FieldSize
3/28/2007 1 fst M16 1 6
3/31/2007 5 fst MSW 3 8
3/31/2007 6 fst NW1 5 8
3/31/2007 10 fst GR3 3 7
3/31/2007 11 fst GR1 3 9
4/1/2007 3 fst C35 1 6
4/11/2007 5 gd AOC 5 6
4/11/2007 7 gd STR 1 5
4/12/2007 5 sly M50 5 6
4/19/2007 1 fst STR 6 7
1/5/2008 3 sly MSW 4 10
1/7/2008 6 fst C32 6 11
1/16/2008 8 fst NW2 2 6
1/19/2008 6 fst MSW 2 11
1/21/2008 3 fst STR 1 6
1/21/2008 8 fst NW1 1 8
1/24/2008 2 my NW1 1 6
1/26/2008 6 fst NW2 1 6
1/26/2008 9 fst STK 2 11
1/27/2008 3 fst NW2 4 5
2/2/2008 8 fst MSW 2 11
2/2/2008 9 fst GR1 1 8
2/4/2008 6 fst NW1 2 8
2/9/2008 4 sly MSW 1 8
2/11/2008 6 fst AOC 2 7
2/15/2008 3 fst AOC 4 5
2/17/2008 6 fst AOC 3 6
2/24/2008 4 fst MSW 5 8
2/24/2008 9 fst GR2 1 12
3/1/2008 8 fst NW1 3 7
3/2/2008 3 fst NW2 3 6
3/5/2008 3 fst C18 7 8
3/6/2008 6 fst MSW 3 12
3/8/2008 7 fst MSW 1 7
3/9/2008 9 fst GR2 5 7
3/13/2008 8 fst NW1 3 5
3/15/2008 9 fst GR3 2 8
3/23/2008 2 sly STR 1 6
3/23/2008 7 sly MSW 7 8

[Borntorun]

I played Lawyer Ron in the Whitney last summer despite the wide post (#10 out of 11?) b/c he his speed figures (Beyers/Track Variants) said he could win at the distance. Is the bias vs. o/s posts at GP at 1 1/8th significantly different than Saratoga? If not, perhaps BB can get out quick enough to run three wide into the 1st turn and leave them in his dust like Lawyer Ron did in the Whitney?

I am in the top 10 in our local OTB RTD contest and would love to play vs. BB to gain points on those ahead of me, but the others I like are also in o/s posts (#s 8,9,11) and I question if #s1 or 2 will improve enough to hit the wire first.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Borntorun

I played Lawyer Ron in the Whitney last summer despite the wide post (#10 out of 11?) b/c he his speed figures (Beyers/Track Variants) said he could win at the distance. Is the bias vs. o/s posts at GP at 1 1/8th significantly different than Saratoga? If not, perhaps BB can get out quick enough to run three wide into the 1st turn and leave them in his dust like Lawyer Ron did in the Whitney?

I am in the top 10 in our local OTB RTD contest and would love to play vs. BB to gain points on those ahead of me, but the others I like are also in o/s posts (#s 8,9,11) and I question if #s1 or 2 will improve enough to hit the wire first.

That is a pretty good comparison. You get just an instant more time at Saratoga to run up, and the turn seems to be maybe a second longer at Gulfstream, but it is very close.
3 wide probably isn't realistic here, because Face The Cat, Elysium Fields, and probably BB Frank are all going to asked for position out of the gate and try to join Fierce Wind near the front. Maybe 5-7 wide and a little bit of a brush.