3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

0 for 36 from the outside five posts is a little too much to believe it is just a few fluke cases and there have been no actual good horses among those 36. The short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream has a huge impact on these races.

[Kasept]

'06 FL DERBY


10. Barbaro (1.60)
7. Sharp Humor (6.40)
5. Sun River (4.30) 3
11. Sam's Ace (34.70)
1. Hesanoldsalt (39.90)
8. High Blues (18.30)
2. Flashy Bull (4.00)
9. Charming Image (92.00)
3. Saint Augustus (25.50)
4. Doc Cheney (25.70)
6. Rehoboth (9.70)

[SniperSB23]

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

1) Fierce Wind (Cornelio Velasquez)
2) Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz)
3) Da' Tara (Joe Bravo)
4) Tomcito (Jorge Chavez)
5) Cool Gator (Eddie Castro)
6) Nistle's Crunch (Julien Leparoux)
7) B B Frank (Javier Castellano)
8) Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa)
9) Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano)
10) Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas)
11) Face the Cat (John Velazquez)
12) Big Brown (Kent Desormeoux)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

1) Fierce Wind (Cornelio Velasquez)
2) Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz)
3) Da' Tara (Joe Bravo)
4) Tomcito (Jorge Chavez)
5) Cool Gator (Eddie Castro)
6) Nistle's Crunch (Julien Leparoux)
7) B B Frank (Javier Castellano)
8) Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa)
9) Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano)
10) Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas)
11) Face the Cat (John Velazquez)
12) Big Brown (Kent Desormeoux)

Wow, some tough draws. No excuses for Tomcito here, if he's the real deal he has to do well with that draw. Same goes for Fierce Wind and Smooth Air. I guess Elysium Fields is in a slightly better position than the other top three but hard to get excited about post 8.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

1. Fierce Wind (Zito/Velasquez)
2. Smooth Air (Stutts/Cruz)
3. Da'Tara (Zito/Bravo)
4. Tomcito (Zanelli/Chavez)
5. Cool Gator (Vella/Castro)
6. Nistle's Crunch (McPeek/Leparouz)
7. B B Frank (Tarrant/Castellano)
8. Elysium Fields (Tagg/Coa)
9. Hey Byrn (Plesa/Lezcano)
10. Majestic Warrior (Mott/Douglas)
11. Face the Cat (Pletcher/Velasquez)
12. Big Brown (Cutrow/Desormeaux)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

0 for 36 from the outside five posts is a little too much to believe it is just a few fluke cases and there have been no actual good horses among those 36. The short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream has a huge impact on these races.

For me to comment precisely on this I need to review all the 2 turn races of the meet. The problem is that only recently have I updated my data where I can look at entire cards together. Which means I need to look through just about all my charts. And, as I'm busy with work, I can't do it. Moreover, I don't have enough interest in the race to do so.

I did, however, take a quick look at the beginning of March, a handful of races, and noticed that it just might not be as bad as everyone thinks. I found a winner from the 2nd widest post and a bunch of others that basically had no shot in the race as they had no speed. What is apparent is that you need to be close to win.

I can understand the argument that the wide post compromises the chances of a horse that needs to be with the pace and gets hung wide but why would it hurt a closer? Though, the speed bias is probably enough to mitigate some of this.
No matter what the data tells me, this makes no sense. A horse can break from the 12, settle behind and inside early, make one run on the turn and, assuming there's pace and some moves in the race, get a perfect trip.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

but why would it hurt a closer? Though, the speed bias is probably enough to mitigate some of this.
No matter what the data tells me, this makes no sense. A horse can break from the 12, settle behind and inside early, make one run on the turn and, assuming there's pace and some moves in the race, get a perfect trip.

with only 11 seconds you dont really have time to drop to the rear either. (unless you were an extreme deep closer who always started extremely slow)

the only way to do win it is bull up out of the gate, take a brush and be happy with 5 wide, and then beat the others.