3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

I've heard worse ideas.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I've heard worse ideas.

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I'd consider the same with Face the Cat as well. Hawthorne is always a possibility too.

[Scav]

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

You would think that would be true, but apparently even an experienced handicapper like "the_fat_man" was completely unaware of this bias before reading this thread, and stunningly didn't think anyone should even care about post position in a 9f race at Gulfstream!

Hopefully there will be a lot of people who feel that same way and are betting this race on Saturday.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Zito's runners caught a break.

Cool Coal Man got post 1 in the 12 runner Fountain Of Youth and worked out a perfect trip.

For the Florida Derby, Zito runners draw posts 1 and 3.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

If this was a normal horse, I would say that he had no chance based on the data. However, there is nothing in this field that I think is good enough in this particular spot to beat this horse despite the bad post...he is much faster out of the gate than the majority of these, and should be able to establish a descent position going into the first turn. This horse also does not need the lead as he showed in his last. He earned a 104 BSF last out (we know what the rest of the field's figures look like) and will only get better. He is bred to run all day long. This is one of those races that you sit back, enjoy, and hope the favorite wins so that you can bet against him in the Derby.

[golfer]

Regarding Big Brown and the 12 post, from drf.com:

"I like it," he said via telephone. "He's not going to get in trouble in the race. As long as he breaks good, I think it's going to be to our advantage. It eliminates any chance of him getting into trouble. He'll get a clean trip, which is half the battle going in.

"Look, I wish he was outside in a seven-horse field, but we're going to take it. We're not going to cry. We get to play the intimidator from out there, instead of being intimidated. We are ready, babe."

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I actually agree. I think BB could win here, but he will have to spot his rivals 5-8. If any of them are game they are asking a ton of effort from Big Brown. He won both races on talent alone, and has suffered hooves. You want him to peak in Ky.