3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5TRUF. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

I'm not doubting that Big Brown is a very good horse... I'm just going with the facts and the fact is that no horse has won from that post in a 9 furlong race.

[sumitas]

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

I've heard worse ideas.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I've heard worse ideas.

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I'd consider the same with Face the Cat as well. Hawthorne is always a possibility too.

[Scav]

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think he's going to be the huge chalk you think he is. The outside post burden isn't a secret, and that draw should double his price. My guess is he'll be around 2/1. Ain't exactly like beating War Pass at 1/9.

You would think that would be true, but apparently even an experienced handicapper like "the_fat_man" was completely unaware of this bias before reading this thread, and stunningly didn't think anyone should even care about post position in a 9f race at Gulfstream!

Hopefully there will be a lot of people who feel that same way and are betting this race on Saturday.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I actually agree. I think BB could win here, but he will have to spot his rivals 5-8. If any of them are game they are asking a ton of effort from Big Brown. He won both races on talent alone, and has suffered hooves. You want him to peak in Ky.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't Elysium Fields settle and relax just fine last time?


As for the numbers, all I have is this year. So far this year, posts 11 and 12 are 0 for 8. Interesting though is posts 6-12 are 2 for 79 this season. Of those races, posts 6 and 7 had one victory each. So for the season posts 8-12 are 0 for 36.

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

Here you go...

GP 1 Year stats
9.0 Dirt FAST - 31 Races
Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 48% winners
Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 13% Winners
Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 1 of 6
Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 6

9.0 Dirt WET - 8 Races
Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 50% winners
Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 38% Winners
Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1
Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

0 for 36 from the outside five posts is a little too much to believe it is just a few fluke cases and there have been no actual good horses among those 36. The short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream has a huge impact on these races.

[Kasept]

'06 FL DERBY


10. Barbaro (1.60)
7. Sharp Humor (6.40)
5. Sun River (4.30) 3
11. Sam's Ace (34.70)
1. Hesanoldsalt (39.90)
8. High Blues (18.30)
2. Flashy Bull (4.00)
9. Charming Image (92.00)
3. Saint Augustus (25.50)
4. Doc Cheney (25.70)
6. Rehoboth (9.70)

[SniperSB23]

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

1) Fierce Wind (Cornelio Velasquez)
2) Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz)
3) Da' Tara (Joe Bravo)
4) Tomcito (Jorge Chavez)
5) Cool Gator (Eddie Castro)
6) Nistle's Crunch (Julien Leparoux)
7) B B Frank (Javier Castellano)
8) Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa)
9) Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano)
10) Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas)
11) Face the Cat (John Velazquez)
12) Big Brown (Kent Desormeoux)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

1) Fierce Wind (Cornelio Velasquez)
2) Smooth Air (Manuel Cruz)
3) Da' Tara (Joe Bravo)
4) Tomcito (Jorge Chavez)
5) Cool Gator (Eddie Castro)
6) Nistle's Crunch (Julien Leparoux)
7) B B Frank (Javier Castellano)
8) Elysium Fields (Eibar Coa)
9) Hey Byrn (Jose Lezcano)
10) Majestic Warrior (Rene Douglas)
11) Face the Cat (John Velazquez)
12) Big Brown (Kent Desormeoux)

Wow, some tough draws. No excuses for Tomcito here, if he's the real deal he has to do well with that draw. Same goes for Fierce Wind and Smooth Air. I guess Elysium Fields is in a slightly better position than the other top three but hard to get excited about post 8.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Are full entries out for this yet? Obviously if horses like Elysium Fields, Face the Cat, and Hey Byrn draw outside as well it greatly decreases the disadvantage that Big Brown will have.

1. Fierce Wind (Zito/Velasquez)
2. Smooth Air (Stutts/Cruz)
3. Da'Tara (Zito/Bravo)
4. Tomcito (Zanelli/Chavez)
5. Cool Gator (Vella/Castro)
6. Nistle's Crunch (McPeek/Leparouz)
7. B B Frank (Tarrant/Castellano)
8. Elysium Fields (Tagg/Coa)
9. Hey Byrn (Plesa/Lezcano)
10. Majestic Warrior (Mott/Douglas)
11. Face the Cat (Pletcher/Velasquez)
12. Big Brown (Cutrow/Desormeaux)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

0 for 36 from the outside five posts is a little too much to believe it is just a few fluke cases and there have been no actual good horses among those 36. The short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream has a huge impact on these races.

For me to comment precisely on this I need to review all the 2 turn races of the meet. The problem is that only recently have I updated my data where I can look at entire cards together. Which means I need to look through just about all my charts. And, as I'm busy with work, I can't do it. Moreover, I don't have enough interest in the race to do so.

I did, however, take a quick look at the beginning of March, a handful of races, and noticed that it just might not be as bad as everyone thinks. I found a winner from the 2nd widest post and a bunch of others that basically had no shot in the race as they had no speed. What is apparent is that you need to be close to win.

I can understand the argument that the wide post compromises the chances of a horse that needs to be with the pace and gets hung wide but why would it hurt a closer? Though, the speed bias is probably enough to mitigate some of this.
No matter what the data tells me, this makes no sense. A horse can break from the 12, settle behind and inside early, make one run on the turn and, assuming there's pace and some moves in the race, get a perfect trip.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

but why would it hurt a closer? Though, the speed bias is probably enough to mitigate some of this.
No matter what the data tells me, this makes no sense. A horse can break from the 12, settle behind and inside early, make one run on the turn and, assuming there's pace and some moves in the race, get a perfect trip.

with only 11 seconds you dont really have time to drop to the rear either. (unless you were an extreme deep closer who always started extremely slow)

the only way to do win it is bull up out of the gate, take a brush and be happy with 5 wide, and then beat the others.