3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[Bobby Fischer]

I think its good. Come on, if brown is what he looks like, then we don't want the public to switch over.
he wins by 2 instead of 9 , and by and large the public doesn't want a story about overcoming track dynamics.
The sheets or graphs or beyers write 1 article, big deal. If he wins here, then pray that Pyro and War Pass win their preps.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I think its good. Come on, if brown is what he looks like, then we don't want the public to switch over.
he wins by 2 instead of 9 , and by and large the public doesn't want a story about overcoming track dynamics.
The sheets or graphs or beyers write 1 article, big deal. If he wins here, then pray that Pyro and War Pass win their preps.

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

[SniperSB23]

Remember the FOY when we heard how Adriano was so good he'd be able to overcome the 12 post?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Remember the FOY when we heard how Adriano was so good he'd be able to overcome the 12 post?

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

I hope you're kidding if you think the post won't severely compromise Big Brown's chances. I just commented cause it's just funny to see a replay of the Fountain of Youth thread already with someone claiming the unproven horse from the 12 hole will crush the field.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You're KIDDING, right? Adriano, as in ADRIANO the turf/poly specialist?

How do you know? He had very little chance the only time he tried dirt. He runs up close and drew the 12 hole against a good field.

[tiggerv]

Last chart since I need to get back to work. This is about as severe a case of inside bias you will ever see. The inside 3 posts win MUCH more than they should on a fair track. I will definitely look at Fierce Wind and Smooth Air a lot more closely now that I know the draw.

Date Race# Cond Class WinPP FieldSize
3/28/2007 1 fst M16 1 6
3/31/2007 5 fst MSW 3 8
3/31/2007 6 fst NW1 5 8
3/31/2007 10 fst GR3 3 7
3/31/2007 11 fst GR1 3 9
4/1/2007 3 fst C35 1 6
4/11/2007 5 gd AOC 5 6
4/11/2007 7 gd STR 1 5
4/12/2007 5 sly M50 5 6
4/19/2007 1 fst STR 6 7
1/5/2008 3 sly MSW 4 10
1/7/2008 6 fst C32 6 11
1/16/2008 8 fst NW2 2 6
1/19/2008 6 fst MSW 2 11
1/21/2008 3 fst STR 1 6
1/21/2008 8 fst NW1 1 8
1/24/2008 2 my NW1 1 6
1/26/2008 6 fst NW2 1 6
1/26/2008 9 fst STK 2 11
1/27/2008 3 fst NW2 4 5
2/2/2008 8 fst MSW 2 11
2/2/2008 9 fst GR1 1 8
2/4/2008 6 fst NW1 2 8
2/9/2008 4 sly MSW 1 8
2/11/2008 6 fst AOC 2 7
2/15/2008 3 fst AOC 4 5
2/17/2008 6 fst AOC 3 6
2/24/2008 4 fst MSW 5 8
2/24/2008 9 fst GR2 1 12
3/1/2008 8 fst NW1 3 7
3/2/2008 3 fst NW2 3 6
3/5/2008 3 fst C18 7 8
3/6/2008 6 fst MSW 3 12
3/8/2008 7 fst MSW 1 7
3/9/2008 9 fst GR2 5 7
3/13/2008 8 fst NW1 3 5
3/15/2008 9 fst GR3 2 8
3/23/2008 2 sly STR 1 6
3/23/2008 7 sly MSW 7 8

[Borntorun]

I played Lawyer Ron in the Whitney last summer despite the wide post (#10 out of 11?) b/c he his speed figures (Beyers/Track Variants) said he could win at the distance. Is the bias vs. o/s posts at GP at 1 1/8th significantly different than Saratoga? If not, perhaps BB can get out quick enough to run three wide into the 1st turn and leave them in his dust like Lawyer Ron did in the Whitney?

I am in the top 10 in our local OTB RTD contest and would love to play vs. BB to gain points on those ahead of me, but the others I like are also in o/s posts (#s 8,9,11) and I question if #s1 or 2 will improve enough to hit the wire first.

[whodey17]

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but how many horses have started in posts 11 and 12 over the past 4 years?

Here come the trolls...

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Big Brown has no shot to win from that post.

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5TRUF. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

i think he does - if he is as good as he appears.

i am a track dynamics guy. This isn't a once a year thing for me when GP runs its 9 furlong dirt stakes. When a poor breaking early speed horse couldn't clear from post 12 in a mile turf race @gp , i know he has 5 more seconds to get there today 8.5. if it goes off the turf to 8main he has 35 more seconds...

PROBABLY A 2HORSE RAC
a lot will depend on brown. A lot will depend on Elysium fields. Can EF actually relax and settle? Tomcito is a longshot, but at least he has a glimmer of hope. Even if Tomcito is very good he probably needs a race. horses like hey byrne are bums

I'm not doubting that Big Brown is a very good horse... I'm just going with the facts and the fact is that no horse has won from that post in a 9 furlong race.

[sumitas]

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Maybe they should just scratch BB and find another race.

I've heard worse ideas.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I've heard worse ideas.

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I'd consider the same with Face the Cat as well. Hawthorne is always a possibility too.

[Scav]

I sure as **** want that horse to run because he is going to be favored and you can toss him. BIG PAYDAY people. BIG PAYDAY.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Me too. Scratch and enter the Wood instead. Under normal circumstances I'd call bullsh*t if they did but the data is too overwhelming and this isn't a normal circumstance, considering the goal in mind.

I actually agree. I think BB could win here, but he will have to spot his rivals 5-8. If any of them are game they are asking a ton of effort from Big Brown. He won both races on talent alone, and has suffered hooves. You want him to peak in Ky.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't Elysium Fields settle and relax just fine last time?


As for the numbers, all I have is this year. So far this year, posts 11 and 12 are 0 for 8. Interesting though is posts 6-12 are 2 for 79 this season. Of those races, posts 6 and 7 had one victory each. So for the season posts 8-12 are 0 for 36.

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?

Here you go...

GP 1 Year stats
9.0 Dirt FAST - 31 Races
Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 48% winners
Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 13% Winners
Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 1 of 6
Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 6

9.0 Dirt WET - 8 Races
Inside 2 posts in all field sizes = 50% winners
Outside 2 posts in all field sizes = 38% Winners
Inside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1
Outside post in fields of 10 or more = 0 of 1