Why Does Beyer Get Dissed?

I like them, but I really only use them to see if a horse fits in a race. I don't assume one horse is faster than another based simply on the beyers. I really like to use racereplays.com and trip handicap and adjust the beyers myself.

[ceejay]

There is room for interpretation in BSF creation and use. For example how can a # possibly be created for the Belmont stakes which is at a distance run once/yr?

I use proprietary figures too. http://www.pacefigures.com/ . I trust these ( speed and pace ) figs more than Beyers. I like it when BSF are off compared to CJ's (CJ is not me): I've made significant scores when that way.

Noone with a brain disses Beyer the man. Dissing his figs is another story.
Beyer basically helped form my love of the game with his first book Picking Winners, an absolute classic. The Winning Horseplayer was equally as good. You are talking about a guy who basically helped create modern handicapping as we know it with his emphasis on players learning to look for biases, trips, and making figures. He also has made plenty of his own scores and loves the game. Hes actually revolutioned the game.
The problem with his figs is multifaceted. The sheets, once a private thing, are now mass marketed and outperform his numbers by a mile. But the biggest problem I have is that he has allowed the human element creep way too far into the process. His original take on making figs as I understood it in the books was to just let the mathematical formula make them and then draw your own conclusions about the how and why they were achieved. He now allows his associates to interject their opinions into a figure, basically making them a product of someone's opinion. They speak in articles of having them "make sense". Well horses races don't always make sense. Sometimes horses freak out or run clunkers. The fiasco on Summit of Speed day where they assigned two horses who ran an hour apart on the same track at the same distance a ten point different fig was the final straw. As it turned out the sheets guys got it right. Valid Video who was adjusted down came back and won the grade one Kings Bishop. Shake You down who was adjusted up came back horribly and lost his next race at the Spa as a heavy chalk. It was basically the explanation of his associate that by some miracle the track slowed down in an hour despite the lack of weather changes.
If they just printed the raw number they come up with the math players would be better served. And don't even get me started on Shadow Caster.

[Pedigree Ann]

I have taken any pronouncements on handicapping made by Andy Beyer with a grain of salt ever since he stated categorically that there was no way on God's green earth that Bayakoa could win the Breeders' Cup distaff at 10f on a BC preview show.(That was the first of her two successive BC wins.)

[randallscott35]

The game has passed him by. He didn't make adjustments for ground loss and his arrogance about disregarding sheet players makes him an easy target.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The game has passed him by. He didn't make adjustments for ground loss and his arrogance about disregarding sheet players makes him an easy target.

I don't think its arrogance, I think if you are Hertz that there is no way you can praise Avis and if you are Coke you can't praise Pepsi.

The guy is very bright quite obviously. He is doing something that many others only wish they could do. He writes about racing and betting and makes money off it.

And he came up with a unique system for its time. A way to compare races coming from diff tracks, or from the same track under diff conditions. This was one of the first legitimate attempts with some sound reasoning to do this. And all of these publications still use "his" numbers...

The fact that he makes wrong picks is no different from anybody else. This game is extraordinarily difficult. Just cause the guy is bright does not mean he is expected to pick correctly in a game as random as this. I think it takes people who are intimately associated with A track and all that goes on with it to do the picking job. I dont think he does this anymore.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

The game has passed him by. He didn't make adjustments for ground loss and his arrogance about disregarding sheet players makes him an easy target.

The sheet makers don't take into account pace and bias (while using lesser factors such as weight and wind) so those numbers are far from perfect as well. Like T-Graph numbers for turf, but the dirt figs are not as reliable, IMO.

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I have taken any pronouncements on handicapping made by Andy Beyer with a grain of salt ever since he stated categorically that there was no way on God's green earth that Bayakoa could win the Breeders' Cup distaff at 10f on a BC preview show.(That was the first of her two successive BC wins.)

The man has strong opinions. Are they always right? Of course not. But many of his strong opinion shave been right, and hes made many scores with strong opinions. The problem is that most weekend warriors only pay real attention on big race days like the Derby or breeders Cup. real players know that it makes no difference whether you come up with a 20-1 in the Breeders Cup or in the 8th race at Finger lakes, it makes no difference whatsoever.
Its really unfair to criticize his selections since hes only asked to give them about twice a year. The other 363 days are never in the print, and I would assume that he some very nice selections on some of those days.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Noone with a brain disses Beyer the man. Dissing his figs is another story.
Beyer basically helped form my love of the game with his first book Picking Winners, an absolute classic. The Winning Horseplayer was equally as good. You are talking about a guy who basically helped create modern handicapping as we know it with his emphasis on players learning to look for biases, trips, and making figures. He also has made plenty of his own scores and loves the game. Hes actually revolutioned the game.
The problem with his figs is multifaceted. The sheets, once a private thing, are now mass marketed and outperform his numbers by a mile. But the biggest problem I have is that he has allowed the human element creep way too far into the process. His original take on making figs as I understood it in the books was to just let the mathematical formula make them and then draw your own conclusions about the how and why they were achieved. He now allows his associates to interject their opinions into a figure, basically making them a product of someone's opinion. They speak in articles of having them "make sense". Well horses races don't always make sense. Sometimes horses freak out or run clunkers. The fiasco on Summit of Speed day where they assigned two horses who ran an hour apart on the same track at the same distance a ten point different fig was the final straw. As it turned out the sheets guys got it right. Valid Video who was adjusted down came back and won the grade one Kings Bishop. Shake You down who was adjusted up came back horribly and lost his next race at the Spa as a heavy chalk. It was basically the explanation of his associate that by some miracle the track slowed down in an hour despite the lack of weather changes.
If they just printed the raw number they come up with the math players would be better served. And don't even get me started on Shadow Caster.

..........dude, you memory is ****ing unreal.....

[2MinsToPost]

alysheba,

I have noticed over the past year and a half that Mike (Oracle) has what some might call a darn near perfect memory. obviously this plays a part in why he is so successful in the industry.

Repent and Oracle have outstanding memories. Repent was absolutely amazing. He could remember stuff he did not even care about. A gift I do not have. Heck I cant even remember all my students names until about 12 weeks. 180 names and some teachers have it down in the first two days...

[2MinsToPost]

I wonder why Repent didn't come over here? I have a selective memory. Really strange, I can remember the silliest little details from years ago but yet sometimes I struggle to remember what I had for dinner last night.

Pgardn my Grandmother is a retired Teacher, she was a Teacher for 41 years. She taught a lost art for several, Latin. I plan on taking Latin in College here in the Fall.

Originally Posted by pgardn

Repent and Oracle have outstanding memories. Repent was absolutely amazing. He could remember stuff he did not even care about. A gift I do not have. Heck I cant even remember all my students names until about 12 weeks. 180 names and some teachers have it down in the first two days...