War Pass --DB ?

[the_fat_man]

It's interesting ---well, actually it's not as is typical here --

that we're getting alot of rhetoric and even rhetoric with examples that some think actually make a point BUT

we have no data --we're thus off course

surely, there's ONE dirt race at GP that came home faster the last fraction

with all the PEDESTRIAN 1st qtr mile races (yeah, I know about the runup) surely
some horse better than WP has accelerated in the stretch, especially in a NON WORKOUT race

I'm not even a WP fan but I can certainly properly intrepret unique performances.

Still waiting for the 'counterexample'

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Still waiting for the 'counterexample'

in Commentator's ALW comeback, he ran his final quarter mile in 24.28 seconds - a full 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass ran his...and KYRIM will be pleased to note that Commentator was every bit as restrained through the lane.

The problem is, that while Commentator only ran 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass in the last quarter - Commentator ran his first six furlongs in 1:09.43 while War Pass ran his first six furlongs in 1:11.90.

So, basically, in similar allowance races against nothing fields - with similar trips over the same track and distance - Commentator ran 2.47 seconds faster for the first 6f's (about 15 lengths) - and still finished with a final quarter time 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass.

TFM, by making a big deal about the final quarter turned in by War Pass being faster than his 3rd quarter - you are basically in a way giving him credit for accelerating after a VERY soft 3rd quarter of 25.18 seconds. A breather!

If he couldn't do that ... he wouldn't even be a good allowance horse.

[the_fat_man]

I'm aware of Commentator's splits.

My SINGLULAR point still remains, however, as you didn't respond to it.

Surely there've been quite a few SOFT PACED miles at GP this year, why have there been NO OTHER examples where the winner accelerates the final quarter. I could be wrong here. Maybe some horse came off the pace and did exactly this.

I simply started this thread to see if someone with a DB could look this up.

I'm looking to throw WP out as a derby threat. All I need is ONE example.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

in Commentator's ALW comeback, he ran his final quarter mile in 24.28 seconds - a full 0.20 seconds faster than War Pass ran his...and KYRIM will be pleased to note that Commentator was every bit as restrained through the lane.

you mean pg1985....oh wait, my bad, same thing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

you mean pg1985....oh wait, my bad, same thing.

KYRIM's a fan of the belief that War Pass didn't get a big figure because he "wasn't all out" - while Commentator got his 119 Beyer under identical circumstances at the same distance and track and also "wasn't all out."

Or are you saying KYRIM and PG are the same person?

Thebby, if so, it's a happy day for men with Italian last names everywhere.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

KYRIM's a fan of the belief that War Pass didn't get a big figure because he "wasn't all out" - while Commentator got his 119 Beyer under identical circumstances at the same distance and track and also "wasn't all out."

Or are you saying KYRIM and PG are the same person?

Thebby, if so, it's a happy day for men with Italian last names everywhere.

Just by watching the horse's races over and over again and watching the horse's movement in the race, I would say that War Pass wasn't all out. The only thing I know for sure is that I have seen him run faster. I'll go watch it one more time just to make sure.

It is the same with Bernardini. Bernardini wasn't all out in the Jim Dandy, but was in all of his subsequent races after that.

Big Brown also looked like he wasn't all out in his last start. Whether he was actually restrained or it was the change in the surface, I don't know. I've also seen him run faster.

Their movement in the stretch dictates if they are running as fast as they can or not. You have to compare that from race to race to know in these kinds of situations.

And I am not pg1985.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It's interesting ---well, actually it's not as is typical here --

that we're getting alot of rhetoric and even rhetoric with examples that some think actually make a point BUT

we have no data --we're thus off course

surely, there's ONE dirt race at GP that came home faster the last fraction

with all the PEDESTRIAN 1st qtr mile races (yeah, I know about the runup) surely
some horse better than WP has accelerated in the stretch, especially in a NON WORKOUT race

I'm not even a WP fan but I can certainly properly intrepret unique performances.

Still waiting for the 'counterexample'

What are you talking about? The only reason he technically "accelerated" in his final quarter is because he ran such a soft third quarter..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

What are you talking about? The only reason he technically "accelerated" in his final quarter is because he ran such a soft third quarter..

I hear ya ...

I was acutally going to go through the charts and find him an example - but, the very first race I looked at was Monday's only one-turn mile race.

In that race - a 25K filly claimer ran her 3rd quarter in 24.43 and her final quarter in 24.64. A whopping 0.21 second deceleration from a nothing filly. And we are supposed to be impressed that War Pass showed a 0.70 second acceleration after a 25.18 3rd quarter?

Hopefully someone with a database can answer TFM's question.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Commentator was all out in his last.

War Pass was not all out in his last.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Commentator was all out in his last.

War Pass was not all out in his last.

no one was talking about Commentator's last race - he got a taste of real pace pressure early on in that race.

His 119 Beyer allowance win was two starts back.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

no one was talking about Commentator's last race - he got a taste of real pace pressure early on in that race.

His 119 Beyer allowance win was two starts back.

Sorry, my mistake.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Sorry, my mistake.

It's ok.

I still love ya.

People have taken a pass on War Pass?

I have not seen this. Its always fashionable
to try to find another but this horse clearly
has established an incredible sustained cruising rate.
Far better than any other horse as a 2 and now a 3 year
old. If this horse stays sound, draws well, and the Derby
track plays fast like many times in the past he does not
get caught.

Who in the devil does not like this horse?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by pgardn

People have taken a pass on War Pass?

I have not seen this. Its always fashionable
to try to find another but this horse clearly
has established an incredible sustained cruising rate.
Far better than any other horse as a 2 and now a 3 year
old. If this horse stays sound, draws well, and the Derby
track plays fast like many times in the past he does not
get caught.

Who in the devil does not like this horse?

PG1985

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by pgardn

People have taken a pass on War Pass?

I have not seen this. Its always fashionable
to try to find another but this horse clearly
has established an incredible sustained cruising rate.
Far better than any other horse as a 2 and now a 3 year
old. If this horse stays sound, draws well, and the Derby
track plays fast like many times in the past he does not
get caught.

Who in the devil does not like this horse?

I don't. I loaned him $50, and he still owes me.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by pgardn

People have taken a pass on War Pass?

I have not seen this. Its always fashionable
to try to find another but this horse clearly
has established an incredible sustained cruising rate.
Far better than any other horse as a 2 and now a 3 year
old. If this horse stays sound, draws well, and the Derby
track plays fast like many times in the past he does not
get caught.


Who in the devil does not like this horse?

lol...

[the_fat_man]

One of the pace figure makers really needs to answer this one. My intent all along.