Remember This Statement By Crist

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ELA

Of course the "rail bias" has been debated and debated over and over again. Personally, my question is -- what's the difference? Rail bias, he wins like whoever you want to call it, by 10. So, especially now, since the horse came back and did what he did -- what difference does it make?

The difference is that the live rail makes horses look (both on paper and on film) better than they actually run.

Curlin was hung up 3-to-4 wide on both turns in the Derby - while winner Street Sense rode it every step, 2nd place Hard Spund rode it every step, 4th place Imawildandcrazyguy rode it for the first 6.5 furlongs of the race, and 5th place finisher Sedgefield rode it every step.

I'm not saying that being denied a live rail was the only reason that Curlin was drowned by Street Sense and Hard Spun - but still had enough to narrowly hold off Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield ...

However, I believe it was a factor in the result.

And I know you're going to say "well that total bum Circular Quay was 6th with a wide trip!" ... BUT, keep in mind Circular Quay raced 18th early on and had a great fast pace to setup his close. Much like Street Sense and Imawildandcrazyguy did from the 19th and 20th spots.

Any Given Saturday was denied the rail and finished 7th or 8th after a wide far turn move - however, unlike Circular Quay, he didn't get a pace setup making his race better. I would argue he clearly ran the better race of the two.

Even if you want to hammer away about how much of a bum Circular Quay is - he still is probably a better deep closer than Imawildandcrazyguy is.

[ELA]

I was talking about the rail bias in the BC, which I think was overblown to an extent, vis a vis the results. Regardless, I think everyone agrees that visually, and on paper, the rail bias distorts the situation. I also -- without question -- agree on Curlin, who I was high on from before day one.

I hear you, and to a degree, I agree. Different story between the BC and Derby, and different ends of the extreme.

Eric

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The difference is that the live rail makes horses look (both on paper and on film) better than they actually run.

Curlin was hung up 3-to-4 wide on both turns in the Derby - while winner Street Sense rode it every step, 2nd place Hard Spund rode it every step, 4th place Imawildandcrazyguy rode it for the first 6.5 furlongs of the race, and 5th place finisher Sedgefield rode it every step.

I'm not saying that being denied a live rail was the only reason that Curlin was drowned by Street Sense and Hard Spun - but still had enough to narrowly hold off Imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield ...

However, I believe it was a factor in the result.

And I know you're going to say "well that total bum Circular Quay was 6th with a wide trip!" ... BUT, keep in mind Circular Quay raced 18th early on and had a great fast pace to setup his close. Much like Street Sense and Imawildandcrazyguy did from the 19th and 20th spots.

Any Given Saturday was denied the rail and finished 7th or 8th after a wide far turn move - however, unlike Circular Quay, he didn't get a pace setup making his race better.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ELA

I was talking about the rail bias in the BC, which I think was overblown to an extent, vis a vis the results.

Oh, It was a bit coincidental that everything breaking from post #1 was running out of their skin...but a horse like Thro's Echo left the rail and made a decisive wide move.

I still labeled that track as "inside path seemed preferred" ... which is my way of saying that maybe the rail was better, but let subsuquent results be your guide and make a final judgement after enough horses have run back.

I had no problem with anyone thinking that was a fair track - and no problem with anyone thinking it was a live rail - I took a middling position on that one at the time.... but obviously it was made to be such a big thing because of how every horse breaking from post 1 seemed to signficantly outrun their odds ... 4 of the 5 in winning races.