Bernadini/the reason for my doubts

[ceejay]

Albertrani didn't bet Songster down to .15:1: The public did.
Albertrani didn't say that his horse had an 87% chance to win: The public did.

Saying that a horse is ready is not the same as guaranteeing a win. These are animals not deterministic models! The horse got caught near the wire. It's horse racing, not a money market fund.

Regarding Bernardini I have one comment: 114. That number makes him competitive with all comers in the handicap division (and I throw out SinMin's 116 as Keeneland-aided), but we'll see how it pans out against elders....
http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

[Danzig]

how can you accept one horses beyer, and then throw out another?? they're all supposed to be figured in a way that in the end shows the horses ability regardless of track, bias, surface, etc....
so why would one be valid, and not another??

[ceejay]

It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ceejay

It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.

ESPECIALLY at Keeneland....Sinister Minister will never win another race, NEVER

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Scav

ESPECIALLY at Keeneland....Sinister Minister will never win another race, NEVER

That's insane to say, the horse is a runner, sure he was aided by a speed bias, but if Baffert gets him right, he will be a very good horse, his sheet # was huge...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

That's insane to say, the horse is a runner, sure he was aided by a speed bias, but if Baffert gets him right, he will be a very good horse, his sheet # was huge...

I would be willing to take odds that he doesn't even make it to another race....

I pay absolutely NO attention to sheet numbers at Keeneland, the only time I do is when the horses were returning to Keeneland and they looked like a Keenaland specialist. With them getting poly or whatever it is called, that should change.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Scav

I would be willing to take odds that he doesn't even make it to another race....

I pay absolutely NO attention to sheet numbers at Keeneland, the only time I do is when the horses were returning to Keeneland and they looked like a Keenaland specialist. With them getting poly or whatever it is called, that should change.

Pleasant Home

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Scav

NEVER

I don't know if I'd say never. I spose they'll be some 3yo Aw races in the fall KEE meet that he'd fit well is. I don't give him much chance in the weight for age condition stakes anywhere though.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by ceejay

It's how fast the horse ran. I accept that; however, I give it less weight in my handicapping of how the horse will perform next time, and that's what I mean by "I throw it out." Many times I've seen horses with easy leads produce big figs that are difficult to reproduce. Especially at KEE.

So, Bernardini didn't have a pretty easy lead and run a big figure?

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

So, Bernardini didn't have a pretty easy lead and run a big figure?

Bernie didn't pull away untill the far turn in the Jim Dandy, and was behind untill he took the lead on the far turn as I recall @ PIM. That's not what I call loose on the lead.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by ceejay

Bernie didn't pull away untill the far turn in the Jim Dandy, and was behind untill he took the lead on the far turn as I recall @ PIM. That's not what I call loose on the lead.

So he had horses hounding him constantly down the backstretch in the Jim Dandy is what you are saying...