KY Derby Future Wager (Pool 2)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Visionaire currently @ 36-1 looks the best value in this pool

I think the odds of that horse winning the Kentucky Derby are about 100/1....so I think I would disagree with you there.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I think the odds of that horse winning the Kentucky Derby are about 100/1....so I think I would disagree with you there.

I think you're being generous.

How in the world can Giant Moon be 50-1?
Who would take that... Oh he ran poorly in the
mess so he will certainly rebound? He was not
that good before.

There will be more than a few horses actually in the
race on the day that will be 50-1.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you're being generous.

If anyone wants to give me 100-1 on Visionaire, I'm in.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

If anyone wants to give me 100-1 on Visionaire, I'm in.

He's a slow horse, that needs a perfect set up, and then is only good enough if another rider blows it on another slow horse.

Anyone who actually thinks he is remotely close to being a contender for this year's KY Derby is borderline ( if not completely ) clueless.

Next.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's a slow horse, that needs a perfect set up, and then is only good enough if another rider blows it on another slow horse.

Anyone who actually thinks he is remotely close to being a contender for this year's KY Derby is borderline ( if not completely ) clueless.
Next.

Geez.....thanks!

guess I'm clueless

just who are the contenders then may I ask??????????????


We need another forum on this site.... the "Dunce" leader of Knowledge

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Geez.....thanks!

guess I'm clueless

just who are the contenders then may I ask??????????????

To be blunt, he's the kind of horse that fools novices. He's a perfectly nice horse. But, in order to perform even moderately well he needs absolutely everything to go his own way. His NW1X win, while visually impressive if you don't really analyze races well, was because of an almost astonishingly good trip, while more than a few others got mediocre rides, and mostly aren't that good. To be fair, he didn't really even run much better, if at all, than the distant second finisher Stevil. Now, as much as I root for Nick, I don't think any of us are clamoring to bet him in the Derby. In the Risen Star he had a fairly easy trip, and unless you want to suggest he didn't like running inside, he was decidedly mediocre versus one complete non-contender, and another solid contender. However, Blackberry Road ran a better race than Visionaire did in the Risen Star, and he's too ludicrous to even discuss. However, the major problem with the rail theory would be that Visionaire has actually proven the opposite....he loves running inside. And then there's the Gotham, where he won because another rider gave a horrendous ride, while his rider gave an outstanding ride. If you take all of this apart you have a horse with massively dressed up form that is subsequently undervalued by people who are completely fooled by his form which belies his ability.

My opinion of this horse isn't clever. He's a 50-1 shot, at the very best, in this year's KY Derby. Wow....I'm really going out on a limb. But, he also exemplifies what is annoying to people who actually understand racing when the KY Derby rolls around. If you visit messages boards you constantly read uninformed opinions based on results, or people's bets which they somehow believe elevates a horse's talent, and while for the most part you laugh it off, sometimes you choose to state the obvious.....even when there is no upside.

So, that's my explanation, and that's how I analyze horses.....by how they perform on the track.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To be blunt, he's the kind of horse that fools novices. He's a perfectly nice horse. But, in order to perform even moderately well he needs absolutely everything to go his own way. His NW1X win, while visually impressive if you don't really analyze races well, was because of an almost astonishingly good trip, while more than a few others got mediocre rides, and mostly aren't that good. To be fair, he didn't really even run much better, if at all, than the distant second finisher Stevil. Now, as much as I root for Nick, I don't think any of us are clamoring to bet him in the Derby. In the Risen Star he had a fairly easy trip, and unless you want to suggest he didn't like running inside, he was decidedly mediocre versus one complete non-contender, and another solid contender. However, Blackberry Road ran a better race than Visionaire did in the Risen Star, and he's too ludicrous to even discuss. However, the major problem with the rail theory would be that Visionaire has actually proven the opposite....he loves running inside. And then there's the Gotham, where he won because another rider gave a horrendous ride, while his rider gave an outstanding ride. If you take all of this apart you have a horse with massively dressed up form that is subsequently undervalued by people who are completely fooled by his form which belies his ability.

My opinion of this horse isn't clever. He's a 50-1 shot, at the very best, in this year's KY Derby. Wow....I'm really going out on a limb. But, he also exemplifies what is annoying to people who actually understand racing when the KY Derby rolls around. If you visit messages boards you constantly read uninformed opinions based on results, or people's bets which they somehow believe elevates a horse's talent, and while for the most part you laugh it off, sometimes you choose to state the obvious.....even when there is no upside.

So, that's my explanation, and that's how I analyze horses.....by how they perform on the track.

Ok, so who are five contenders (in your opinion) for the "first Saturday in May" ?