Pyro

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Give Bravo a real rider n' He and PYRO hit the wire together.What a waste of a mount.Somebody good gunna want this mount,and I hope they get it.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

He'll do well vs. War Pass when they meet again.....2nd best, once again!

[TitanSooner]

let's just not have the triple crown races this year.

jeez

[Travis Stone]

Not the performance I was expecting...

This crop just continues to look weaker and weaker.

[miraja2]

I guess I was more impressed with him than all of you guys seem to be, although the crop as a whole continues to look poor. The time was obviously not great compared to what Proud Spell did in the previous race, but Pyro ran into some trouble in the second half of the race and overcame it to win easily.
As far as I am concerned he was far more impressive than Proud Spell throughout the last 2.5 furlongs of the race, despite not getting ideal fractions to run into.....again.
He clearly isn't great at this point, but he seems pretty good to me.

[Travis Stone]

Pyro sprints away from a MCL in the last 16th while every other horse is gasping. Combine that with the time... eeek.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Pyro sprints away from a MCL in the last 16th while every other horse is gasping. Combine that with the time... eeek.

And let's not forget the third place horse, trying dirt for the first time.

I think it's fashionable to say that Pyro has improved since the fall. I'm not so sure. I think he was better than these horses in the fall and he's still better than them. I feel like it's impossible to tell how much he's improved. I don't think anything more can be taken from this race than can be taken from War Pass' race or from Big Brown's race. Each situation has been one good horse against vastly inferior horses and the good horse doing what he's supposed to do. Majestic Warrior, Tale of Ekati are "name" horses so it seemed like this was a deep field today but under the conditions they were put under, they had no shot at all to give their best and even their best might not have suited the conditions of today being that neither of them has proven they can win past 7f or around two-turns.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

As far as I am concerned he was far more impressive than Proud Spell throughout the last 2.5 furlongs of the race

He was more impressive than her overall - even though he ran a few lengths slower.

Proud Spell will never get a better situation than she got today. With a real fast pace to set Pyro up - he could certainly run a lot better than his softish win today.

[ceejay]

His running style will make it tough in a field of 20.........

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ceejay

His running style will make it tough in a field of 20.........

The horses who raced 19th and 20th early on in last years Derby - finished 1st and 4th.

4th place finisher Imawildandcrazyguy just ran 3rd in a small stake at Tampa today.

All things being equal, I'd prefer a closing style in the Derby.

closers win almost half of the KY derbies, stalkers take about 1/2 the rest. So all things being equal you'd take a closer. All things being equal. It seems that the various running styles are about equallydistributed but that's just a rough count based on last couple runnings of the derby.

OTOH, some running styles like stalkers have to turn into closers in the derby because of all the traffic. Fu Peg or Charismatic might be examples of this.

All in all one should not dismiss a horse for the derby on the basis of his being a closer. Being a closer is a plus.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

All things being equal, I'd prefer a closing style in the Derby.

I had this same conversation with a friend of mine today. The chug-up finishers in the Derby are often great to wheel underneath at good prices:

Bluegrass Cat 30-1, Jazil 24-1, Steppenwolfer 16-1 in '06, Limehouse 41-1 in '04 etc.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The horses who raced 19th and 20th early on in last years Derby - finished 1st and 4th.

4th place finisher Imawildandcrazyguy just ran 3rd in a small stake at Tampa today.

All things being equal, I'd prefer a closing style in the Derby.

Excellent point and another step in the road to convincing people that they needn't be overly concerned with closers in the Derby as only around three of the last 17 were won by horses on the pace.

NT

[JJP]

Originally Posted by ceejay

His running style will make it tough in a field of 20.........

If one were to break down running styles of the winners of the last 25 KY Derbies, you'd find more closers winning than speed horses, pressers or stalkers. I don't have the charts of these races so I'm going off memory here. Some of these might be debateable but here's how I'd break them down:

Speed: War Emblem, Go for Gin SPend a Buck, Winning Colors
Pressers: Smarty Jones, Swale, Sunny's Halo
Stalkers:Barbaro, Funny Cide, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Thunder Gulch, Lil E Tee, Sunday Silence
Closers: Street Sense, Giacomo, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Grindstone, Sea Hero, Strike the Gold, Unbridled, Alysheba, Ferdinand

And with the bigger field, it does seem that some pressers going into the race became stalkers (Silver Charm, Funny Cide and Barbaro) and stalkers can become closers. But I wouldn't hold Pyro's running style against him.

[CSC]

Yes Pyro is a good horse, however I sense the hype machine is working overtime.

To put things in perspective I would think a donkey would stand a good chance to win under Asmussen at The Fairgrounds right now. Which begs the question just how good is this horse?

Originally Posted by JJP

If one were to break down running styles of the winners of the last 25 KY Derbies, you'd find more closers winning than speed horses, pressers or stalkers. I don't have the charts of these races so I'm going off memory here....

I think Thunder Gulch was a presser in the derby, although had been a closer earlier in his career the last time I studied those derby charts. I believed he was remained closer to the pace the rest of his career except for Preakness. But if you did that from memory that is a pretty good list from off the top of your head.

Ive done them all going back to 1930 and very nearly the same % breakdown follows all the way back. It's about 46-48% closers about 1/2 that stalkers and the rest gtw or pressers. There must be a reason these numbers continue to hold and it must have to do with the added distance at this pt in their careers as well as whatever type surface CD is usually set at. Maybe the field size too but maybe not...?

I am beginning to like Pyro but I cant believe he is ahead of War Pass at this pt. Other than that he seems like the real deal.The more I study the derby it seems to me it may be more of a question of what horse can accelerate at the right moment rather than straight on running times/BSF etc.

For one thing, the only way to explain certain races is to sort of accept that the final time could have been anywhere w/in a range and that it really was a question of at what pt. the jockey believed it was the right moment to send his horse. Whether Citation wins the Preakness in 2:05 or whatever it was is not really germane, that fact that he coudl accelerate at a moment's notice was a clear, tangible advantage, albeit difficult to measure.

This idea may also explain why slop may tend to produce larger beaten margins. It is simply very difficult to accelerate quickly and horses that are in a good position to do so can pretty much dictate when they go. Think Street Sense in the BC juvenile; he's not really 10 lengths beter than the field is he? He may not even be 5 lengths better on a fast track. But he has push buton acceleration. Or like Dust Commander winning the derby 5 lengths. Or Assault winning by 8?? The latter two horses did not tower over their fields in the way that SpendaBuck or Sec/Sham or Barbaro did. Something else is going on here.

Or compare dirt to KEE type synethic and turf races. These horses seem to have a very different style having to do with the ability to accelerate anytime they want. And nearly every turf race looks the same. WHy is that? The only thing I can think of is that this ability to accelerate on a moment's notice is easier on turf, even mediocre horses have it. THey dont win much but at least the winning margins are smaller the very opposite of dirt/slop.

If sur someone else smarter than me knows a better theory but in my feeble mind this is all I come up with.

Pyro is not my derby horse, at this pt. But if anone can avoid traffic troubles it is him. Compare to like Blackberry Rd. or that Majestic Warrior horse. I would not count on Pyro being blocked on derby day, that much I would be willing to put money on, not much else but that I would bet on.

Elysium Fields and Visoinaire are also closers that seem intriguing on derby day. Definitely want to take a closer look at EF..