Derby top 10

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

But I can disagree with your theory for making a list that doesn't exist

Since almost all of those horses were 20 -1 or higher it is doubt ful they were on anyones lists nn March 7th

[The Indomitable DrugS]

True in the case of War Emblem and Charismatic (who upon further review, ran 3rd in the El Camino Derby on March 6th - thus misses your cutoff by a day)

False in the case of Smarty Jones, and Monarchos - they owned huge figures and were hyped.

I bet Funny Cide strongly in the Lousianna Derby (March 9th) - after his well beaten 3rd there his odds drifted up future wise - but he had run a HUGE figure at age 2

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Since almost all of those horses were 20 -1 or higher it is doubt ful they were on anyones lists nn March 7th

I made a giant mistake and forgot about Fusaichi Pegasus.

He didn't run in his first Graded Stake until his facile Gr 2 San Felipe win at 6/5 odds on March 19th.


So, six of the last nine winners of the Derby didn't have any Graded Stakes top four finishes prior to the El Camino Derby on March 6th.

However, four of those six did have triple digit Beyer figs prior to that time.

Funny Cide (103 2yo Beyer in NY bred Stake)
Monarchos (103 Alw Beyer at GP on Feb 3rd)
Fusaichi Pegasus (103 Alw Beyer at SA on Feb 19th)
Smarty Jones (105 2yo Beyer, 108 3yo Beyer in ungraded stake)

A horse like Big Brown, and his 104 falls in line with horses like Monarchos and Fu Peg - although neither of them earned their big figure in an N1X alw race initally scheduled for the turf.