Derby top 10

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

What has Court Vision done (besides run slow) to warrant such a high spot? The other nine look about right although I'd shift the order around slightly.

Court Vision would own a standout #1 ranking on my 'Most Likely to plod into a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Derby' list.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Court Vision would own a standout #1 ranking on my 'Most Likely to plod into a 4th place finish in the Kentucky Derby' list.

I don't think he's even fast enough to do that. He'll plod up to crack the top ten but I'd be surprised if he can do any better than 6th.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't think he's even fast enough to do that. He'll plod up to crack the top ten but I'd be surprised if he can do any better than 6th.

I think you are underestimating the advantage a horse with Court Vision's plodding style has in a race like the Derby. Just looking at some recent history...

'07 Last year I'mawildandcrazyguy raced back with Street Sense early - and plugged home 4th, about a length behind Curlin and in front of a future Haskell winner.

'06 Steppenwolfer and Jazil - two of the slowest horses around plugged in 3rd and 4th - ahead of the in sharp form trio of Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthernsaint.

'05 Giacomo beat a field including Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, and Afleet Alex

People can talk all they want about horses like War Emblem, Hard Spun, Smarty Jones, Lion Heart and Congaree showing sharp speed in the Derby and running very well - they were all excellent 3yo's - they all came back to win a Grade 1 race later in their 3yo season.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think you are underestimating the advantage a horse with Court Vision's plodding style has in a race like the Derby. Just looking at some recent history...

'07 Last year I'mawildandcrazyguy raced back with Street Sense early - and plugged home 4th, about a length behind Curlin and in front of a future Haskell winner.

'06 Steppenwolfer and Jazil - two of the slowest horses around plugged in 3rd and 4th - ahead of the in sharp form trio of Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, and Sweetnorthernsaint.

'05 Giacomo beat a field including Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, and Afleet Alex

People can talk all they want about horses like War Emblem, Hard Spun, Smarty Jones, Lion Heart and Congaree showing sharp speed in the Derby and running very well - they were all excellent 3yo's - they all came back to win a Grade 1 race later in their 3yo season.

Big difference now though. We aren't going to have a bunch of cheap speed in the race like we would in the past from California and the Blue Grass. Now all those preps are playing to off the pace turf horses which is going to significantly reduce the number of pace factors in the Derby and the slow plodders will be getting up for 6th or 7th instead of 3rd or 4th.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I understand your reasoning - but I don't agree with it. Anytime you have a 20 horse field of 3yo stretching out - you are going to get a faster pace than you'd figure to get on paper.

I'm sure Asmussen would love to enter a rabbit in the race to throw at War Pass - his problem is finding a sprinter of his with enough Graded Stakes earning to get in and fast enough to carry out the mission.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I understand your reasoning - but I don't agree with it. Anytime you have a 20 horse field of 3yo stretching out - you are going to get a faster pace than you'd figure to get on paper.

I'm sure Asmussen would love to enter a rabbit in the race to throw at War Pass - his problem is finding a sprinter of his with enough Graded Stakes earning to get in and fast enough to carry out the mission.

Also worth noting that every example you used above had a Beyer at least four points better going into the Derby than Court Vision has ever run. That alone can be the difference between 3rd or 4th and 6th or 7th.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

We really are going back and fourth about Court Vision running 4th instead of 7th in the Derby - on a friday night, with a huge day of betting ahead tomorrow?

I will use the insane snow storm we got here as my excuse.