For Blackthroat & Big Brown (104 BSF) fans

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

best colt in the usa....jeff siegle......

That's silly but he's got a lot of talent.

It's hard to judge the mile races versus 7F races, as in general the miles have been much slower, perhaps due to the insufficient run-up, but both maiden races were run in 1:23 1/5. Both of those winners are promising, and I don't think it's unfair to say that his 1:35 3/5 is four to six lengths faster than those races.

I haven't watched Gulfstream....is it a sealed track? If so that makes all the races tricky to take on face value. However, no matter how you cut it, Big Brown can run.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's silly but he's got a lot of talent.

It's hard to judge the mile races versus 7F races, as in general the miles have been much slower, perhaps due to the insufficient run-up, but both maiden races were run in 1:23 1/5. Both of those winners are promising, and I don't think it's unfair to say that his 1:35 3/5 is four to six lengths faster than those races.

I haven't watched Gulfstream....is it a sealed track? If so that makes all the races tricky to take on face value. However, no matter how you cut it, Big Brown can run.

And he was seriously geared down...the other were running at the end...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

And he was seriously geared down...the other were running at the end...

We will have to agree to disagree on this.

After watching the races, Big Brown got his 7F in 1:22.69 I believe. He won like he was supposed to and if he keeps it together physically, which I doubt, he's probably OK. Unfortunately for him he is going to be rushed, if he stays sound, most likely to the Blue Grass and then probably the Preakness after he fails to qualify for the Derby. If he was given a more sane program it's very possible, if he stays sound, that he could really have something to say later in the year. I highly doubt that will happen.

As for Ready's Echo.....fast pace, weak field, sweet trip, but a very nice effort still after a six month layoff. I would imagine his connections won't be crazy enough to bury him in the Florida Derby. Maybe they will run him in a race like the Bay Shore on Wood Day or even the Withers three weeks later. I'm surprised he didn't have a lot more speed today ( obviously he wasn't going to be 25 lengths behind early ) but he also has the kind of running style that tends to make people overrate his performances. Still, he seems like a neat horse and could easily make some noise later. How far he goes remains to be seen but hopefully he won't get buried before he has a chance to show where his niche lies.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

We will have to agree to disagree on this.

After watching the races, Big Brown got his 7F in 1:22.69 I believe. He won like he was supposed to and if he keeps it together physically, which I doubt, he's probably OK. Unfortunately for him he is going to be rushed, if he stays sound, most likely to the Blue Grass and then probably the Preakness after he fails to qualify for the Derby. If he was given a more sane program it's very possible, if he stays sound, that he could really have something to say later in the year. I highly doubt that will happen.

As for Ready's Echo.....fast pace, weak field, sweet trip, but a very nice effort still after a six month layoff. I would imagine his connections won't be crazy enough to bury him in the Florida Derby. Maybe they will run him in a race like the Bay Shore on Wood Day or even the Withers three weeks later. I'm surprised he didn't have a lot more speed today ( obviously he wasn't going to be 25 lengths behind early ) but he also has the kind of running style that tends to make people overrate his performances. Still, he seems like a neat horse and could easily make some noise later. How far he goes remains to be seen but hopefully he won't get buried before he has a chance to show where his niche lies.

I'm not sure I understand with what you disagree with me regarding? I was only stating that Big Brown was geared down, whereas the 7f runners were running at the end of their respective races, thus making BB performance all the more impressive...

I heard Gulfstream got .01 inch of rain. I'm relieved they took the races off the turf.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I'm not sure I understand with what you disagree with me regarding? I was only stating that Big Brown was geared down, whereas the 7f runners were running at the end of their respective races, thus making BB performance all the more impressive...

I think he ran as fast as he was capable of in this race.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think he ran as fast as he was capable of in this race.

Oh, okay...it didn't look as though he was even asked...i did think it was a little odd how wide he went...a sign of another layoff line perhaps?

[the_fat_man]

While the game is speed driven, it doesn't necessarily follow that it need be always considered from a speed perspective.

For example, all three winners today ran greenly. BB ran the straightest of the 3 in the stretch but he didn't exactly keep the most direct path for a horse that won in hand. And he was needlessly wide.

But the real interesting question is who picks out Klaravich's horses?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NoLuvForPletch

I'm not sure I understand with what you disagree with me regarding? I was only stating that Big Brown was geared down, whereas the 7f runners were running at the end of their respective races, thus making BB performance all the more impressive...

"geared down" doesn't necessarily mean he can go faster, then again he really doesn't need to to be competitive with the rest of the 3yo crop right now. What I liked most about the race was the only other two legitimate horses tried to hang with him on the front end and got destroyed.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

I guess I'm curious to see Big Brown to run on dirt anyways. Any idea on what type of race that has come back? I only distinctly recall seeing one horse out of it, a month or so ago at GP, and he didn't run well.

I guess I got my answer. Just as well as on turf, if not better.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That's silly but he's got a lot of talent.

It's hard to judge the mile races versus 7F races, as in general the miles have been much slower, perhaps due to the insufficient run-up, but both maiden races were run in 1:23 1/5. Both of those winners are promising, and I don't think it's unfair to say that his 1:35 3/5 is four to six lengths faster than those races.

I haven't watched Gulfstream....is it a sealed track? If so that makes all the races tricky to take on face value. However, no matter how you cut it, Big Brown can run.

Seems like this has to be the case, based on the internal fractions with legitimate horses at a mile. Almost all have the 2nd quarter better than the 1st, as was the case with this race.

I definitely agree. Big Brown is listed at 150-1 currently in the Vegas future book. I'll be in Nevada in a couple weeks, and will definitely take a flier at that price, mostly because I know IEAH will do everything they can to get him there, and outside of War Pass I haven't seen a colt that can run with him.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'll be honest with you Phil.......I think he is much higher than 150-1 to win the Derby. I honestly don't know that he's even 10-1 to have the earnings for the Derby.

But, he's got a lot of ability.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'll be honest with you Phil.......I think he is much higher than 150-1 to win the Derby. I honestly don't know that he's even 10-1 to have the earnings for the Derby.

But, he's got a lot of ability.

I figure he's 2-1 to finish in the top 3 of the FL Derby, which will likely be their next objective, and probably enough earnings to make the cut (usually right around $120k). Obviously he's got some issues... but this is IEAH. They're DESPERATE for a Derby starter. Let's say hypothetically he makes it into the gate off an exacta finish in the Fl Derby... how many horses would be lower odds? 4-6, maybe? We're desperate for some talent right now- outside of War Pass, have any of these shown the brilliance required to win the Derby? Cool Coal Man is OK, Pyro is OK, the rest of them, not so much...

[blackthroatedwind]

I'll say it again.....he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, being that they publicly said before today's race they were hoping to run in the Blue Grass, and then said it again after today's race, I will say he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

Of course, I don't have a hotline to On.....I mean someone at IEAH...so I will have to trust the public comments for now.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, being that they publicly said before today's race they were hoping to run in the Blue Grass, and then said it again after today's race, I will say he is being pointed for the Blue Grass.

Of course, I don't have a hotline to On.....I mean someone at IEAH...so I will have to trust the public comments for now.

You clearly need a facebook account.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I figure he's 2-1 to finish in the top 3 of the FL Derby, which will likely be their next objective, and probably enough earnings to make the cut (usually right around $120k). Obviously he's got some issues... but this is IEAH. They're DESPERATE for a Derby starter. Let's say hypothetically he makes it into the gate off an exacta finish in the Fl Derby... how many horses would be lower odds? 4-6, maybe? We're desperate for some talent right now- outside of War Pass, have any of these shown the brilliance required to win the Derby? Cool Coal Man is OK, Pyro is OK, the rest of them, not so much...

Let me also add......I would love to give you 2-1 that he runs in the top 3 in either of those races......and you lose if he runs in neither.

Do you really think a horse that debuts on Labor Day and takes six months to make his second career start is 2-1 to make any race in a month?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me also add......I would love to give you 2-1 that he runs in the top 3 in either of those races......and you lose if he runs in neither.

Do you really think a horse that debuts on Labor Day and takes six months to make his second career start is 2-1 to make any race in a month?

I would take 2-1 on him in either race to hit the board, yes... if I were sure he would make the gate. And I wholeheartedly agree the horse has issues, but remember who we are dealing with here- Dutrow (who could probably raise Lazarus) and IEAH (who are DESPERATE for a Derby starter). IF the horse is healthy, and maybe he is enough to make it two months, he's a legitimate contender.

I would bet everything I have that he doesn't make it past June, however.

[blackthroatedwind]

I understand he may be under 2-1 to hit the board ( he will most likely pay less than $6 to show ) but even if he's 40% to hit the board, which I don't think, I'm not so sure he's even 40% to make either race realistically.

On your June bet....you'll have to find another bookmaker.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cardus

And soon thereafter, he'd raze Lazarus.

... or run him the next day.

I think Big Brown has a chance to win the Arc if he goes.