KY Derby Future Wager (Pool 2)

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i do not see much value on anything

that is what you might call the morning line.
you might want to wait until people actually start betting to decide if you see any value or not.

[Kasept]

How about Barclay Tagg and David Carroll with more (2 each) on this list than Todd Pletcher..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Kasept

How about Barclay Tagg and David Carroll with more (2 each) on this list than Todd Pletcher..

Taking Asmussen and Pletcher over Asmussen and Zito in that Road to the Roses contest is going to ruin me in it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Taking Asmussen and Pletcher over Asmussen and Zito in that Road to the Roses contest is going to ruin me in it.

Can't you switch like midway or something in this Road to Roses thing? Or was that TVG?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Not sure if you can.

His 3yo's are sinking like the titanic. Look at that list - the people who put it together believe Monba has his best chance.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

How is it that Smooth Air and not Anak Nakel, is still in pool #2 ???

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

How is it that Smooth Air and not Anak Nakel, is still in pool #2 ???

The question I have is why is everyone in this thread spelling the colt's name in this manner?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Taking Asmussen and Pletcher over Asmussen and Zito in that Road to the Roses contest is going to ruin me in it.

Out of curiousity, which Pletcher killer did you like for this year's Derby that you took him over Nick?

Had to be Monba. Even Freddy was probably ashamed of you.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Out of curiousity, which Pletcher killer did you like for this year's Derby that you took him over Nick?

Had to be Monba. Even Freddy was probably ashamed of you.

I liked Check It Twice the best of his...and really no one else that much.

Though - the game gives you points for wins and top 3 finishes in Gr 3 and ungraded 3yo stakes.

I thought Pletcher would outscore Zito because of that - in fact - that might not even happen.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Had to be Monba.

In fact, I hated Monba so much that I took Court Vision over him. I felt dirty having Court Vision as one of my ten horses - but I needed someone for the FOY...and CV could be counted on to score me a lot of nice 3rd and 4th place finishes there after.

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Taking Asmussen and Pletcher over Asmussen and Zito in that Road to the Roses contest is going to ruin me in it.

We'll go down together then.. I did the same thing. Hard to know tho back then.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Taking Asmussen and Pletcher over Asmussen and Zito in that Road to the Roses contest is going to ruin me in it.

i have pletcher and zito i believe. explains why i'm mid pack.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

that is what you might call the morning line.
you might want to wait until people actually start betting to decide if you see any value or not.

For that matter, if I could get the morning line 10-1 on "all others", I'd consider that huge value. I'll be all over it. (the highest it's ever closed is 6.90-1.)

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

For that matter, if I could get the morning line 10-1 on "all others", I'd consider that huge value. I'll be all over it. (the highest it's ever closed is 6.90-1.)

--Dunbar

good point, right there is some value.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

good point, right there is some value.

I thought the same thing, but 10-1 will not happen. I beleive it's sitting at
6-1 right now.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I thought the same thing, but 10-1 will not happen. I beleive it's sitting at
6-1 right now.

I think it will close around 5-1 and 6-1, and I think it would still have value at that level. But as you note, my original comment was in response to the poster who waid he/she didn't see any value looking at the morning line. At 10-1, the value of "all others" would be monstrous, IMO.

--Dunbar

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I think it will close around 5-1 and 6-1, and I think it would still have value at that level. But as you note, my original comment was in response to the poster who waid he/she didn't see any value looking at the morning line. At 10-1, the value of "all others" would be monstrous, IMO.

--Dunbar

No doubt that would be monstrous at 10-1 and I certainly agree that 5-1 or 6-1 would be great value. I will be watching it all weekend. If I can get 5-1 or higher I will be dropping a fairly good wager on that.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

No doubt that would be monstrous at 10-1 and I certainly agree that 5-1 or 6-1 would be great value. I will be watching it all weekend. If I can get 5-1 or higher I will be dropping a fairly good wager on that.

especially since Baffert is apparently training all 400+ of them:

Number Name Trainer Morning Line Current Odds
1 Blackberry Road David Carroll 30 32
2 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 44
3 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 14
4 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 10 27
5 Court Vision William Mott 12 16
6 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 9
7 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 16
8 Elysium Fields Barclay Tagg 15 23
9 Fierce Wind Nicholas Zito 20 51
10 Gayego Paulo Lobo 20 99
11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 18
12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 47
13 J Be K Steven Asmussen 30 37
14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 20 22
15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 24
16 Nikkisgoldensteed Robert Hess, Jr. 50 81
17 Pyro Steven Asmussen 6 5
18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 99
19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 38
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 30 83
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 5 7/2
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 48
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 44
24 All Other Three Ye Bob Baffert 10 8

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

No doubt that would be monstrous at 10-1 and I certainly agree that 5-1 or 6-1 would be great value. I will be watching it all weekend. If I can get 5-1 or higher I will be dropping a fairly good wager on that.

Closed at 6.5-1. Pretty generous, IMO. It would have been 6.6-1 without my bet. Sorry! ;>)

--Dunbar