They Knew

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

It's been this way for years on the AQU Inner, but not as bad as this year.

A couple years ago, a friend who bets nothing but NYRA MSW/MCL races (and I thought I had problems) looked at 5 years of Inner maiden races.

He came up with FTS runners winning far below expected. I believe he used ratios of races won by FTS runners vs the percentage of total starters represented by the FTS.

He looked at MCLs and MSWs going both short and long. They all underperformed vs expected. I remember FTS going long in either class type was much worse and that MSWs short was better.

Jim, I'm curious about the Tampa stats... For example, the MCLs 18/141 ... 12.7%: Does this represent FTS runners winning 18 of 141 MCL races or does it mean that 18 out of 141 MCL FTS runners won races?

its runners not races. 181 first timers went to the gate, 18 won.

if we look at it by races then its
18/96 18.75% mcl FTS winners at Tampa
7/39 17.9% msw FTS winners at Tampa

and

2/61 3.3% mcl FTS at AQU
2/48 4.2% msw FTS at AQU

thats an incredible difference.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

its runners not races. 181 first timers went to the gate, 18 won.

if we look at it by races then its
18/96 18.75% mcl FTS winners at Tampa
7/39 17.9% msw FTS winners at Tampa

and

2/61 3.3% mcl FTS at AQU
2/48 4.2% msw FTS at AQU

thats an incredible difference.

AJ where you getting these numbers from, Bris?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

AJ where you getting these numbers from, Bris?

the data comes from bris datafiles that i've been collecting since the begginning of the year, Ive been using a software package to manipulate it and run queries.

to finish what I started on firsters, here are the results for RACES at various tracks this year. It looks like firsters are really ready to go this time of year at Tampa and Santa Anita, and not so much in NY.

Gulfstream
MCL 7/91, 7.7%
MSW 10/56, 17.8%

Tampa
MCL 18/96, 18.7%
MSW 7/39, 17.9

Philly
MCL 4/64, 6.2%
MSW 6/20, 30%

Laurel
MCL 6/57, 10.5%
MSW 3/15, 20%

Turfway
MCL 4/95, 4%
MSW 4/29, 13.8%

Fairgrounds
MCL 6/74, 8.1%
MSW 6/60, 10%

Oaklawn
MCL 8/49, 16.3%
MSW 3/25, 12%

Santa Anita
MCL 12/54, 22%
MSW 6/35, 17%

Aqueduct
MCL 2/61, 3.3%
MSW 2/48, 4%

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

good job jim ..thanks......

[fpsoxfan]

Great Stuff Arli. This could prove to be very helpful.