Grass Ranks Thinning Because of Synthetics

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'd like to ask you about the part that I highlighted. In what way do you mean that the dirt horses were faster than the grass horses at each level? I don't want to go looking around but it seems to me that at many distances at the major tracks, the track records for grass races are usually faster than the ones for dirt races at the same distance. A lot of times, significantly faster. It sort of feels to me that synthetic surfaces, rather than evening the gap, has widened it more. In the past, I've always felt like in general, grass horses have been superior and that real dirt was what actually evened things out because it put them at a disadvantage. I thought Sakhee and Giant's Causeway were both better than Tiznow. If those two BCC's were on grass, I think they romp but on dirt, they were disadvantaged enough to get them beat. I have a feeling that they win both of those races on synthetic tracks.

A lot of people are saying that the mass crossovers haven't been taking place yet and grass racing is still doing ok. It's still early. Watch what's going to happen in California this year. Watch how the BC "dirt" races are going to be affected. So far, for the most part, we've seen modest grass horses having a lot of success on the synthetics. It won't be long before the people with real good ones start moving over. It's going to happen.

If good turf horses start running on the synthetic wont new turf horses emerge to take their place? Looking at CA turf races in particular arent the majority of the turf stakes run with imported horses? Why wouldnt we just import more to fill the turf stakes? Couldnt the sport overall be helped if there were full fields in turf and pseudo-dirt stakes?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

If good turf horses start running on the synthetic wont new turf horses emerge to take their place? Looking at CA turf races in particular arent the majority of the turf stakes run with imported horses? Why wouldnt we just import more to fill the turf stakes? Couldnt the sport overall be helped if there were full fields in turf and pseudo-dirt stakes?

The sport could be helped from a wagering perspective. But what about the quality of the races themselves? Yes, if the good ones switch over, new ones will take their places. But won't the new ones just be ones that weren't good enough to win in the first place. It will be like this year's handicap division. If Curlin, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday were still around, I am pretty sure that the top of the division would look better than it's going to look this year. But they are all gone and somebody has to step in and fill the voids and win the races. Doesn't mean they are anywhere near as good as the ones that left us though. I don't look at it as new horses emerging as much as old horses taking advantage of new opportunities.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The sport could be helped from a wagering perspective. But what about the quality of the races themselves? Yes, if the good ones switch over, new ones will take their places. But won't the new ones just be ones that weren't good enough to win in the first place. It will be like this year's handicap division. If Curlin, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday were still around, I am pretty sure that the top of the division would look better than it's going to look this year. But they are all gone and somebody has to step in and fill the voids and win the races. Doesn't mean they are anywhere near as good as the ones that left us though. I don't look at it as new horses emerging as much as old horses taking advantage of new opportunities.

What does synthetic tracks have to do with horses retiring early to cash out at stud?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What does synthetic tracks have to do with horses retiring early to cash out at stud?

I think he just meant we shouldn't be satisfied with new lesser horses winning on the turf cause all the good ones went to synthetics anymore than we should be satisfied when new lesser horses are winning as older males because all the good ones have gone off to stud.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think he just meant we shouldn't be satisfied with new lesser horses winning on the turf cause all the good ones went to synthetics anymore than we should be satisfied when new lesser horses are winning as older males because all the good ones have gone off to stud.

I believe that his point is moot because we have no idea what horses will emerge each year. Lawyer Ron was about the 8th best of his generation that wound up being top older horse because of defections but how do we not know that hemay have emerged anyway? It is hard to believe any horse could have beaten him at Saratoga this year. I have a hard time believing that all the major turf races will be abandoned because of synthetic. Actually turf racing will get a boost in this country because better mares are being bred to turf stallions because of the synthetic/turf relationship. You already see turf types brining more at the sales and this trend should continue if synthetic tracks expand.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I believe that his point is moot because we have no idea what horses will emerge each year. Lawyer Ron was about the 8th best of his generation that wound up being top older horse because of defections but how do we not know that hemay have emerged anyway? It is hard to believe any horse could have beaten him at Saratoga this year. I have a hard time believing that all the major turf races will be abandoned because of synthetic. Actually turf racing will get a boost in this country because better mares are being bred to turf stallions because of the synthetic/turf relationship. You already see turf types brining more at the sales and this trend should continue if synthetic tracks expand.

So you don't believe that taking away the top horses from one area is any more likely to produce new "top" horses than the natural evolution of things? If next year, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Dirk Nowitzki all miss the year with injury and Amare Stoudamire ends up leading the league in scoring, you don't think the absence of those other stars would have anything to do with it? You would think my point is moot because we don't know who would have emerged anyway? It's the same concept. Whether the top horses are taken away by retirements or by injuries or by trainers deciding to run them on a different surface, their departures create voids that will get filled but doesn't necessarily mean that the horses that fill them are just as good or would have done so anyway.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

So you don't believe that taking away the top horses from one area is any more likely to produce new "top" horses than the natural evolution of things? If next year, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, and Dirk Nowitzki all miss the year with injury and Amare Stoudamire ends up leading the league in scoring, you don't think the absence of those other stars would have anything to do with it? You would think my point is moot because we don't know who would have emerged anyway? It's the same concept. Whether the top horses are taken away by retirements or by injuries or by trainers deciding to run them on a different surface, their departures create voids that will get filled but doesn't necessarily mean that the horses that fill them are just as good or would have done so anyway.

True but the factors that take away the top horses wont change. We still wont know who will turnout to be our best horses at the end of the year. On Jan 1st last year if I told you Curlin would be horse of the Year you would have told me that no horse had ever emerged in Feb of his 3 yo year and became horse of the year in that same season an that the crop had to have been really soft for that to happen. Of course that would not have been true on any accounts. The problem as I see it is that the turf division in this country has lacked depth for a few years and that trend is likely to contnue if the Euros keep invading the sales with 50 cent dollars to spend. That we are probably producing more turf runners in the shed may mitigate that somewhat. The fact is that too many of our top horses are going to stud too early which is what is the real reason that the top races are weakened.

[Bobby Fischer]

multiple personalities The gambler in me is spreading exactas and tris with legit longshot contenders like Air Commander and Johnny Eves in the San Fernando hand over fist, while the best animal (Tiago) clearly has no chance of winning at even money, but the sportsman in me is cringing at the low quality stakes racing on this phoney surface.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The sport could be helped from a wagering perspective. But what about the quality of the races themselves? Yes, if the good ones switch over, new ones will take their places. But won't the new ones just be ones that weren't good enough to win in the first place. It will be like this year's handicap division. If Curlin, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday were still around, I am pretty sure that the top of the division would look better than it's going to look this year. But they are all gone and somebody has to step in and fill the voids and win the races. Doesn't mean they are anywhere near as good as the ones that left us though. I don't look at it as new horses emerging as much as old horses taking advantage of new opportunities.

not necessarily. many sports have a season, with last years season really having no bearing on this years.
horse racing really should be considered the same way. we all expect that horses will improve at three, without necessarily having made a mark at two. the same can hold true for the next several years for horses. some late bloomers may well have surpassed their betters from previous years. it would be nice to have them all in the mix to know for sure...but we have no control over that.
mineshaft was nowhere to be found at three, he made quite a mark at four. where did cigar finish in the derby? john henry got better with age, as did the tin man....whether they were better or not, then those who left the scene can be debated, but they still put on a hell of a show.

you and carson hollow weren't world beaters. i doubt either got a nod in eclipse voting at that years end, but their test stake is still mentioned as one of the best races ever. you can have dammed good racing without having a derby winner in the mix.