Denis of Cork <96 BSF>

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I guess he probably does have a good shot, because....well because....this crop STILL doesn't appear to be particulary deep or strong at this point.
But for a horse with his style - and given the pace of the race, and the trip he had - it didn't look to me like he was moving very fast down the stretch. What was his time for final 1/4? It couldn't have been particularly fast.
The horse on the lead was completely cooked, and while Denis went by him, he didn't seem to have a lot left.
I really don't know what to think of any of these 3yos. Who knows...maybe the colt from Peru will win this year's Kentucky Derby.

I don't know what his final quarter was. You guys can figure it out I guess. 6f was run in 1:10.83 and the final time was 1:37.59. Denis of Cork was 9 lengths back at the 6f mark. So those that know how to figure that out can figure out how fast he ran his final quarter. In my opinion, I thought his race was every bit as impressive as Pyro in the Risen Star...and most likely more so.

[TitanSooner]

24 and 4/5

[free25]

Officially, this is my derby horse.... I love small stables like Dave Caroll who can pay attention to their horses. In my humble opinion, this is why Todd Pletcher has struggled in the big ones. Love him, but attention to detail rules in training......

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I don't know what his final quarter was. You guys can figure it out I guess. 6f was run in 1:10.83 and the final time was 1:37.59. Denis of Cork was 9 lengths back at the 6f mark. So those that know how to figure that out can figure out how fast he ran his final quarter. In my opinion, I thought his race was every bit as impressive as Pyro in the Risen Star...and most likely more so.

I use .16 per beaten length and using that as a guide, I get his final quarter in 25.32

I'm almost positive that I can walk it that fast.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I use .16 per beaten length and using that as a guide, I get his final quarter in 25.32

I'm almost positive that I can walk it that fast.

You should be a race horse then since the horse you have as the 4th best since 1986 finished the exact same race in 26 1/5.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You should be a race horse then since the horse you have as the 4th best since 1986 finished the exact same race in 26 1/5.

The 2004 Southwest was run in 2004. The 2008 edition was just run a few days ago. I'm not sure at all what one has to do with the other? Did they run the same opening fractions? Did they run against the same kind of competition? Were the riders of both asking them the same question down the lane? Also, whether or not Smarty ran it in 26 1/5 or 35 1/5 is beside the point. All that you are point out is that both of them finished in slow time. Smarty's time doesn't make Dennis' fast.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The 2004 Southwest was run in 2004. The 2008 edition was just run a few days ago. I'm not sure at all what one has to do with the other? Did they run the same opening fractions? Did they run against the same kind of competition? Were the riders of both asking them the same question down the lane? Also, whether or not Smarty ran it in 26 1/5 or 35 1/5 is beside the point. All that you are point out is that both of them finished in slow time. Smarty's time doesn't make Dennis' fast.

Smarty got a 95 Beyer and Denis a 96. Smarty's time was a hair quicker so the track was actually a little faster that day if at all different. Check out the closing fractions of every Southwest. They are all slower than that. Lawyer Ron finished in 26 2/5. Using the closing fractions at Oaklawn as if they are conventional fractions is pointless when, as Steve pointed out, the stretch is uphill.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Smarty got a 95 Beyer and Denis a 96. Smarty's time was a hair quicker so the track was actually a little faster that day if at all different. Check out the closing fractions of every Southwest. They are all slower than that. Lawyer Ron finished in 26 2/5. Using the closing fractions at Oaklawn as if they are conventional fractions is pointless when, as Steve pointed out, the stretch is uphill.

I agree. I wasn't using the closing fractions to say that he was slow coming home. I was using my eyes. It wouldn't matter to me if the closing fraction was 21 1/5. If I see horses laboring, that's what I'm going to remember, not the fraction.

Also, I'm not sure that this is correct about the Oaklawn stretch and it's come home times. Afleet Alex ran his final 8th of the Arkansas Derby in 11 4/5. Curlin ran his in 12 flat. I don't remember what Smarty's was in the Rebel but it was something crazy fast too. There is no way I believe Alex ran 11 4/5 going uphill. I've always been of the belief that the opposite may be true; that it's slightly downhill which leads to those really fast closing fractions being a little misleading.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I agree. I wasn't using the closing fractions to say that he was slow coming home. I was using my eyes. It wouldn't matter to me if the closing fraction was 21 1/5. If I see horses laboring, that's what I'm going to remember, not the fraction.

Also, I'm not sure that this is correct about the Oaklawn stretch and it's come home times. Afleet Alex ran his final 8th of the Arkansas Derby in 11 4/5. Curlin ran his in 12 flat. I don't remember what Smarty's was in the Rebel but it was something crazy fast too. There is no way I believe Alex ran 11 4/5 going uphill. I've always been of the belief that the opposite may be true; that it's slightly downhill which leads to those really fast closing fractions being a little misleading.

I'm not entirely sure what the deal is there but there is certainly a quirk in the closing fractions of the Southwest over the past several years. The Rebel and Arkansas fractions seem more reasonable so I'm not sure what exactly is going on but I know finishing the Southwest in 25 is actually a good finishing time.

[Oaklawnfan]

"Now the east coast handicappers really dig those picks they share, but the Southern boys down in the Natural State have the winners comin' out of no where." "I 've spent a lot of time tryin' to make my picks but I just can't seem to decide" "I guess I'll just get on back to my racing form and let the other posters help me this time. I wish they all could be Derby Trailer's, I wish they could all be Derby Trailer's, I wish they all could be Derby Trailers who shine.

While I don't want any California contenders, this is to the tune of :California Girls."

Thankya, thankya very much.
This either breaks my maiden, or gets me thrown out.