Some Saturday Beyer Figures

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually, while it's hard to be overly optimistic, I'm not quite ready to condemn the entire older division this early. I'm not exactly sure what's out there, though I have a feeling first time dirter Frost Giant will get a huge number for Monday's 6th at Gulfstream, but it's still too early to know for sure.

That's not a bad point actually about Nobiz and I wonder if one thing that Tagg is thinking about is how does Showing Up come back. If he's miraculously back to his former self, I wonder if that would affect Nobiz's schedule. I also suppose Curlin could have something to do with that. However, considering Nobiz's affinity for both surfaces I also wonder if he would consider polytrack Grade 1s in California....especially with the BC Classic obviously being out there. I doubt he will want to move him back and forth between grass and dirt but I wouldn't be shocked if he was contemplating a return to dirt.

Sounds like we should ask someone to ask Tagg. Knowing his affinity for the press I'm sure he would be delighted to be forthcoming.

seems the last few years we've all had the older horse doldrums at this time of year, yet usually one or two suddenly show on the radar and we end up having an enjoyable season. too soon to say just yet who the top dogs will be in the now misnamed handicap division, but the fun is always in the discovery.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

seems the last few years we've all had the older horse doldrums at this time of year, yet usually one or two suddenly show on the radar and we end up having an enjoyable season. too soon to say just yet who the top dogs will be in the now misnamed handicap division, but the fun is always in the discovery.

The question that you have to ask is whether or not that one or two that seem to suddenly show up do so because they are just the best of the ones that are left and somebody has to win or do they actually step up their game and take it to the next level? For example, if you take out Street Sense, Curlin, and Hard Spun and Imawildandcrazyguy ends up as the Derby winner, is it accurate to say he stepped up or is it accurate to say he was just the best of what was left? This year, because of the lack of good older horses and with the best older horse set to miss at least the first half of the year over here, several horses that probably should be considered second level at best, are going to win some pretty prestigious races and be overhyped because of it.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The question that you have to ask is whether or not that one or two that seem to suddenly show up do so because they are just the best of the ones that are left and somebody has to win or do they actually step up their game and take it to the next level? For example, if you take out Street Sense, Curlin, and Hard Spun and Imawildandcrazyguy ends up as the Derby winner, is it accurate to say he stepped up or is it accurate to say he was just the best of what was left? This year, because of the lack of good older horses and with the best older horse set to miss at least the first half of the year over here, several horses that probably should be considered second level at best, are going to win some pretty prestigious races and be overhyped because of it.

I think more of what Danzig was referring to was a situation like with Lawyer Ron last year. At this point in 2007 LR was just an allowance winner and most were dubious about his ability to step up and win bigger races. He proved that he was a quality older horse, winning the Oaklawn Handicap, Whitney, and Woodward en route to an Eclipse Award. Someone like that could definitely surface, as you insinuated in your post.

NT

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think more of what Danzig was referring to was a situation like with Lawyer Ron last year. At this point in 2007 LR was just an allowance winner and most were dubious about his ability to step up and win bigger races. He proved that he was a quality older horse, winning the Oaklawn Handicap, Whitney, and Woodward en route to an Eclipse Award. Someone like that could definitely surface, as you insinuated in your post.

NT

But did Lawyer Ron really step up? I'm not so sure he did. From a Beyer perspective he did and he ran good races at Oaklawn and Saratoga. But he wasn't beating much of anything at all. He was only beating other grade two and three level horses. When faced with real competition, he seemed to keep getting beat.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

But did Lawyer Ron really step up? I'm not so sure he did. From a Beyer perspective he did and he ran good races at Oaklawn and Saratoga. But he wasn't beating much of anything at all. He was only beating other grade two and three level horses. When faced with real competition, he seemed to keep getting beat.

Lawyer Ron stepped up in a handicap division that was in shambles around April 1. Whether you decide to call it him beating up on weak competition or stepping up, the fact of the matter is that he ran excellent races in the Oaklawn Handicap, Whitney, and Woodward, a very solid race in the Met Mile (where he lost to two subsequent G1 winners) and then didn't exactly disgrace himself in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He fell victim to a superior crop of 3YOs. Might that happen again this year? It could, but as for right now there are plenty of older horses who may be able to "step up" and join the fray and Grasshopper is definitely one of them.

NT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think more of what Danzig was referring to was a situation like with Lawyer Ron last year. At this point in 2007 LR was just an allowance winner and most were dubious about his ability to step up and win bigger races. He proved that he was a quality older horse, winning the Oaklawn Handicap, Whitney, and Woodward en route to an Eclipse Award. Someone like that could definitely surface, as you insinuated in your post.

NT

yeah, something like that. and lawyer ron made a splash in a big way, not just winning a prestigious race, but beating the clock in the process.
now, whether he faced top notch competition, or whether he was the best of what's left....he won the race, he ran in it, and others chose not to-you can only beat who shows up. kudos to him and the man he was named for, else he'd have been at stonewall!