The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now

blackthroatedwind · #1 02-09-2008, 09:55 PM

Not that you said it, in fact you intentionally avoided it, but War Pass was loose on the lead because he outran his speedy opposition with exceptionally fast fractions. His half in the BC was a full second faster than the lightning quick Indian Blessing. It's hardly surprising that Pyro was able to gain on him in the last quarter of those races....in fact it would have been embarrassing if he couldn't. None of his closes were particularly exceptional. In fact one could argue that he was the only one running after War Pass had done the dirty work of intimidating all the speed horses. I know you won't argue that War Pass was far more impressive in victory in those races than Pyro was in picking up the pieces for second money.

As for the rest of your Captain Obvious stuff about Pyro being more likely to get the distance. Gee thanks....we didn't know that War Pass isn't particularly bred to go a distance and faces the possibility of a difficult pace scenerio in the Derby. And, in case we weren't, you have already posted it about 37 times. Clearly the fact that War Pass has not shown an ability to rate may be his biggest concern ( along with the obvious distance questions ). One thing Smarty Jones had going for him at this time four years ago was that he had shown a stalking ability. Of course, it would be nice for War Pass if the sky opened up on the first Saturday in May just like they did for Smarty Jones.

And thanks for pointing out the different ways that Assmussen and Zito are bringing these horses along. Considering Assmussen's mantel full of KY Derby trophies, along with Zito's total lack of success in the race, it's a wonder Nick isn't trying to emulate Steve's style. Hopefully someone will straighten him out before it's too late. I just hope for Assmussen's sake his horses are running as well on Derby day as they seem to be in Fair Grounds right now. I'm sure you'll agree that there's no reason to even consider that possibility.

All in all, however, your usual fine work. If you weren't so damn handsome I probably wouldn't even have read it.

Heels1989 · #2 02-09-2008, 10:04 PM

Haven't seen this previously posted. Mr. Beyer on War Pass.

Impressed with Pyro today, but not on his bandwagon quite yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...020803619.html

The Indomitable DrugS · #3 02-10-2008, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heels1989

Haven't seen this previously posted. Mr. Beyer on War Pass.

Impressed with Pyro today, but not on his bandwagon quite yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...020803619.html

I just read this. Beyer made an unacceptable error!

He said the 113 Beyer of War Pass was the highest earned by a 2yo since Easy Goer.

In fact, everyone knows the year after Easy Goer's 2yo season Grand Canyon ran the fastest 2yo Beyer figure ever recorded with his giant 1:33 flat win in the Hollywood Futurity. Breaking Snow Chief's stakes record by over one full second. His final race before death. At least everyone who's heard me say it about 600 or so times in my posting career.

Also - while it is fair to compare War Pass with Slew from a style standpoint - Beyer was actually the one who led the "Seattle Slew is overrated" charge leading up to the Derby and even after his Derby score.

In his second book, he spent a few pages making his case for why he thought Cormorant was the right horse to bet in that race.

The Indomitable DrugS · #4 02-09-2008, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not that you said it, in fact you intentionally avoided it, but War Pass was loose on the lead because he outran his speedy opposition with exceptionally fast fractions. His half in the BC was a full second faster than the lightning quick Indian Blessing. It's hardly surprising that Pyro was able to gain on him in the last quarter of those races....in fact it would have been embarrassing if he couldn't. None of his closes were particularly exceptional. In fact one could argue that he was the only one running after War Pass had done the dirty work of intimidating all the speed horses.

Besides for War Pass - I said before the race I thought the field had the look of a fairly paceless race. Globalization (who failed a couple times in maiden sprints) and Salute the Sarge (who simply is a consistant stalker-to-mid-pack type) were 2nd and 3rd.

The fast fractions were more a product of a keen and aggressive War Pass, and the horses behind him had to be used some to keep him from getting too loose in the Monmouth slop.

You know it's far more common in slop than dirt for superior speed horses to carve solid fractions and still outfinish everyone else. If you take Pyro out of the race, War Pass turns his 2.5 length lead after a half mile into a 16.75 length margin of victory over everyone else.

Obviously I know War Pass was clearly the better 2yo - but my point was based on projections Pyro is the most likely Derby winner.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And thanks for pointing out the different ways that Assmussen and Zito are bringing these horses along. Considering Assmussen's mantel full of KY Derby trophies, along with Zito's total lack of success in the race, it's a wonder Nick isn't trying to emulate Steve's style.

You seem to have missed the point.

Basically, I think the Champagne was Zito's big goal with War Pass. The four straight fast bullet works in Sep leading into the race suggested he wanted to leave nothing on the table.

In Pyro's case, he's done everything without being asked to do much of anything in his slow works.

Somehow you managed to turn that into 'well who has won more Derby's?'

cmorioles · #5 02-10-2008, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

All in all, however, your usual fine work. If you weren't so damn handsome I probably wouldn't even have read it.

The whole post looked like another poor effort to discredit Street Sense to me.

blackthroatedwind · #6 02-10-2008, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The whole post looked like another poor effort to discredit Street Sense to me.

I knew that as well......but I didn't want to make him cry.

cmorioles · #7 02-10-2008, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I knew that as well......but I didn't want to make him cry.

I assume he missed the Grasshopper race yesterday.

Bobby Fischer · #8 02-10-2008, 09:21 AM

TAKE HIS SHILL AND GO --- TO WAGER ----PLEASE.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There needs to be like a message board farm system.....

Like a place where we can send posters who've lost their fastball or never had one to start with.

Did we pick up The Fish and The Fat Man from a prison swap with Pace Advantge or something?

beyer is an (insert childish insult). He just wants to shill his speed figure. These speed figures have been misrepresented for a false importance in race prediction. "Horse A has three 100 beyers, so he figures to be the one to beat..."

A beyer is only an adjusted final time speed figure. It tells nothing at all about how the race was run other than adjusted final time. It tells nothing at all about the animal other than adjusted final time.
It would have been in good taste to consciously keep separate race analysis from the speed figures. However it is about a profit and these figures have been purposely incorporated in the race analysis to sound more important.

when you see a speed figure in an analysis, without context, it should sound like a car title loan commercial to your bs radar

and sadly drones such as yourself repeat this mantra for free. "Horse A is going to win the kentucky derby because he has the top 3yo beyers of 2008!" lmao , what comedy. There needs a place where we can send guys like this - a wagering facility where they can put their money into the pools.

#9 02-10-2008, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

TAKE HIS SHILL AND GO --- TO WAGER ----PLEASE.

beyer is an (insert childish insult). He just wants to shill his speed figure. These speed figures have been misrepresented for a false importance in race prediction. "Horse A has three 100 beyers, so he figures to be the one to beat..."

A beyer is only an adjusted final time speed figure. It tells nothing at all about how the race was run other than adjusted final time. It tells nothing at all about the animal other than adjusted final time.
It would have been in good taste to consciously keep separate race analysis from the speed figures. However it is about a profit and these figures have been purposely incorporated in the race analysis to sound more important.

when you see a speed figure in an analysis, without context, it should sound like a car title loan commercial to your bs radar

and sadly drones such as yourself repeat this mantra for free. "Horse A is going to win the kentucky derby because he has the top 3yo beyers of 2008!" lmao , what comedy. There needs a place where we can send guys like this - a wagering facility where they can put their money into the pools.

Bobby Fischer · #10 02-10-2008, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

X

My dear Fortunato, you are luckily met. How
remarkably well you are looking to-day. But I have received a pipe of
what passes for Amontillado, and I have my doubts.

Scurlogue Champ · #11 02-10-2008, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

TAKE HIS SHILL AND GO --- TO WAGER ----PLEASE.

beyer is an (insert childish insult). He just wants to shill his speed figure. These speed figures have been misrepresented for a false importance in race prediction. "Horse A has three 100 beyers, so he figures to be the one to beat..."

A beyer is only an adjusted final time speed figure. It tells nothing at all about how the race was run other than adjusted final time. It tells nothing at all about the animal other than adjusted final time.
It would have been in good taste to consciously keep separate race analysis from the speed figures. However it is about a profit and these figures have been purposely incorporated in the race analysis to sound more important.

when you see a speed figure in an analysis, without context, it should sound like a car title loan commercial to your bs radar

and sadly drones such as yourself repeat this mantra for free. "Horse A is going to win the kentucky derby because he has the top 3yo beyers of 2008!" lmao , what comedy. There needs a place where we can send guys like this - a wagering facility where they can put their money into the pools.

LIBEL!!!!!