Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

I'm going to Vegas in two weeks and this gives me something to compare with the Futures going on this week. I think I can wait and probably get much better odds there.

[Kasept]

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

Tale of Ekati could be one of the forgotten horses in this group.
Anything close to his current odds of 47-1 is worth a long look in my opinion.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

Isn't Crown of Thorns at 20/1 awfully enticing? I would think it would even figure to creep up once some of these run on Saturday.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

I'm going to Vegas in two weeks and this gives me something to compare with the Futures going on this week. I think I can wait and probably get much better odds there.

It's 50-50... sometimes I've found much better value with the CD pool, sometimes much better in Vegas... and that holds true for both the derby futures and the BC futures.

[cakes44]

I don't think much of Z Humor, but if you do, 80-1 for a horse that hasn't missed a workout and already has enough graded earnings is worth a look.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

It's 50-50... sometimes I've found much better value with the CD pool, sometimes much better in Vegas... and that holds true for both the derby futures and the BC futures.

My guess is that the "now horses" like a War Pass, Court Vision or Pyro would be a better play in Vegas while you might do better with a proven horse that is not at the forefront today like a Crown of Thorns or El Gato Malo in this wager.

[Dunbar]

One thing to keep in mind is that we are looking at something like 5 or 6% of the total pool right now. The odds will change dramatically before closing on Sunday.

--Dunbar