Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[SlewsMyHero]

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

Why are we "taking the absolute worst of it"? IMO, this is severely faulty thinking.

This pool has the same takeout as any Churchill pool. When the takeout is the same, what matters is how good your information is compared to other bettors and how well you make use of that information. I would venture that many Derby Trail cappers are in a much better position to evaluate the 23 individual entries' chances than the average bettor is.

In the Derby Future Pool, you KNOW that some sizable amount of money is being bet foolishly. The fact 10's of thousands of dollars will be bet on horses running this weekend BEFORE they race is solid proof of that. That's an immediate advantage to anyone willing to wait until Sunday to bet.

The chance that some of these horses won't make it to the starting gate is just another factor that goes into an assessment of fair odds. It doesn't change the track take, which is what we are always trying to overcome.

--Dunbar

[SlewsMyHero]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Why are we "taking the absolute worst of it"? IMO, this is severely faulty thinking.

This pool has the same takeout as any Churchill pool. When the takeout is the same, what matters is how good your information is compared to other bettors and how well you make use of that information. I would venture that many Derby Trail cappers are in a much better position to evaluate the 23 individual entries' chances than the average bettor is.

In the Derby Future Pool, you KNOW that some sizable amount of money is being bet foolishly. The fact 10's of thousands of dollars will be bet on horses running this weekend BEFORE they race is solid proof of that. That's an immediate advantage to anyone willing to wait until Sunday to bet.

The chance that some of these horses won't make it to the starting gate is just another factor that goes into an assessment of fair odds. It doesn't change the track take, which is what we are always trying to overcome.

--Dunbar

Odds Comparison with Churchills Future Pool final closing odds and Wynn Las Vegas Future Book. Which would you rather bet into?

2008 Kentucky Derby Future 
# 	Horse		CD ML 	CD Fin	Wynn Current 	Best Odds
1	Anak Nakal 	20-1	33-1	50-1		Wynn
2	Blackberry Road 20-1	47-1	50-1		Wynn
3	Bob Black Jack 	50-1	58-1	200-1		Wynn
4	Colonel John 	30-1	19-1	25-1		Wynn 
5	Court Vision 	12-1	15-1	25-1		Wynn 
6	Cowboy Cal 	20-1	26-1	50-1		Wynn 
7	Crown of Thorns 20-1	18-1	20-1		Wynn 
8	Denis of Cork 	30-1	46-1	50-1		Wynn 
9	El Gato Malo  	15-1	16-1	15-1		CD 
10	Etched 		15-1	26-1	50-1		Wynn 
11	Georgie Boy 	20-1	69-1	50-1		CD 
12	Giant Moon 	20-1	51-1	65-1		Wynn 
13	Into Mischief 	20-1	26-1	50-1		Wynn 
14	Majestic Warrior15-1	18-1	25-1		Wynn 
15	Monba 		30-1	16-1	25-1		Wynn 
16	Pyro 		12-1	5-1	8-1		Wynn 
17	Signature Move 	50-1	152-1	100-1		CD 
18	Smooth Air 	20-1	159-1	75-1		CD 
19	Tale of Ekati 	20-1	33-1	30-1		CD 
20	War Pass 	12-1	6-1	12-1		Wynn 
21	Yankee Bravo 	20-1	48-1	125-1		Wynn 
22	Z Fortune 	20-1	37-1	30-1		CD 
23	Z Humor 	15-1	45-1	60-1	 	Wynn 
24	Mutuel Field  	5-2	3-1	N/A	 	CD

A couple of other advantages to betting into Las Vegas style future books is that you get the price that you buy into. It's a true future book. With the Churchill future the pool, you don't know the exact odds you are getting until the pool closes. Obviously this can work both ways depending on the horse you're wagering on. Another advantage is that if you really like a horse or 2 that are part of the Churchill mutuel field, you will get longshot odds when betting into the Las Vegas style future books, as opposed to 3/1 . Now of course you could still win the wager if another field horse wins, but 3/1 is not what I'm looking for when making future wagers. 3/1 on the mutuel field may be an attractive wager if you don't like any of the named entrants however.

One other thing to keep in mind. The Wynn odds are not the only future odds available in Las Vegas. You have the option of shopping around. However, Wynn oddsmaker John Avello does a great job at managing the odds. Many shops will simply lower the odds as wagers come in, but will not increase the odds on those entries that are not taking any action. Avello will adjust the odds up or down according to the action coming in. Buyer beware. It pays to shop around. In summary, I guess it really depends on which horse you're interested in. As a whole, the Wynn future books offers more attractive odds on more entrants, and locks you into the price you buy at. The Churchill pools offers a Mutuel field, allowing you to wager against the named entrants. Also you are not limited in the amount you want to wager, but your wager does affect the odds you get.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

I'm going to Vegas in two weeks and this gives me something to compare with the Futures going on this week. I think I can wait and probably get much better odds there.

[Kasept]

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

Tale of Ekati could be one of the forgotten horses in this group.
Anything close to his current odds of 47-1 is worth a long look in my opinion.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

Isn't Crown of Thorns at 20/1 awfully enticing? I would think it would even figure to creep up once some of these run on Saturday.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

I'm going to Vegas in two weeks and this gives me something to compare with the Futures going on this week. I think I can wait and probably get much better odds there.

It's 50-50... sometimes I've found much better value with the CD pool, sometimes much better in Vegas... and that holds true for both the derby futures and the BC futures.

[cakes44]

I don't think much of Z Humor, but if you do, 80-1 for a horse that hasn't missed a workout and already has enough graded earnings is worth a look.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

It's 50-50... sometimes I've found much better value with the CD pool, sometimes much better in Vegas... and that holds true for both the derby futures and the BC futures.

My guess is that the "now horses" like a War Pass, Court Vision or Pyro would be a better play in Vegas while you might do better with a proven horse that is not at the forefront today like a Crown of Thorns or El Gato Malo in this wager.

[Dunbar]

One thing to keep in mind is that we are looking at something like 5 or 6% of the total pool right now. The odds will change dramatically before closing on Sunday.

--Dunbar