Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[Bobby Fischer]

as of today there is no horse that I would say is a lock to finish top 3 in the derby.

Zfortune is the most impressive so far on dirt. I dislike his pedigree a lot. IMO he is a product of good training. Horse like that tend to fold when the class is at it its highest. Siphons are prone to be cheap speed, but this one sold for more, and he has the look of a route distance horse under Asmussen.

Cowboy Cal is the other who really caught my eye. How is he going to run on the dirt? How about a few lengths off the pace on the dirt? can he save ground and take a little bit of kickback?

Anak Nakaal looks good as well. Does he have that champion talent? Has shown flashes but appears to still have room to grow.

Court Vision has done nothing wrong. He isn't a runt, but he isn't exactly eye catching...

Then there are a lot of others who have some potential to enter the mix. I would like to see all of them do well, and make for a great prep season

[Cajungator26]

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

Agreed. The second finisher in his race ran OK on Saturday.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Agreed. The second finisher in his race ran OK on Saturday.

Yep... good to have something to look forward to at this point.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I can't wait to see Bordeaux Bandit in his next start...

Not too shabby...


Bordeaux Bandit


Date: 02/07/2008
Track: PALM MEADOWS TRAINING CENTER
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 35:00 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 1/16

[SlewsMyHero]

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

Why are we "taking the absolute worst of it"? IMO, this is severely faulty thinking.

This pool has the same takeout as any Churchill pool. When the takeout is the same, what matters is how good your information is compared to other bettors and how well you make use of that information. I would venture that many Derby Trail cappers are in a much better position to evaluate the 23 individual entries' chances than the average bettor is.

In the Derby Future Pool, you KNOW that some sizable amount of money is being bet foolishly. The fact 10's of thousands of dollars will be bet on horses running this weekend BEFORE they race is solid proof of that. That's an immediate advantage to anyone willing to wait until Sunday to bet.

The chance that some of these horses won't make it to the starting gate is just another factor that goes into an assessment of fair odds. It doesn't change the track take, which is what we are always trying to overcome.

--Dunbar

[SlewsMyHero]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Why are we "taking the absolute worst of it"? IMO, this is severely faulty thinking.

This pool has the same takeout as any Churchill pool. When the takeout is the same, what matters is how good your information is compared to other bettors and how well you make use of that information. I would venture that many Derby Trail cappers are in a much better position to evaluate the 23 individual entries' chances than the average bettor is.

In the Derby Future Pool, you KNOW that some sizable amount of money is being bet foolishly. The fact 10's of thousands of dollars will be bet on horses running this weekend BEFORE they race is solid proof of that. That's an immediate advantage to anyone willing to wait until Sunday to bet.

The chance that some of these horses won't make it to the starting gate is just another factor that goes into an assessment of fair odds. It doesn't change the track take, which is what we are always trying to overcome.

--Dunbar

Odds Comparison with Churchills Future Pool final closing odds and Wynn Las Vegas Future Book. Which would you rather bet into?

2008 Kentucky Derby Future 
# 	Horse		CD ML 	CD Fin	Wynn Current 	Best Odds
1	Anak Nakal 	20-1	33-1	50-1		Wynn
2	Blackberry Road 20-1	47-1	50-1		Wynn
3	Bob Black Jack 	50-1	58-1	200-1		Wynn
4	Colonel John 	30-1	19-1	25-1		Wynn 
5	Court Vision 	12-1	15-1	25-1		Wynn 
6	Cowboy Cal 	20-1	26-1	50-1		Wynn 
7	Crown of Thorns 20-1	18-1	20-1		Wynn 
8	Denis of Cork 	30-1	46-1	50-1		Wynn 
9	El Gato Malo  	15-1	16-1	15-1		CD 
10	Etched 		15-1	26-1	50-1		Wynn 
11	Georgie Boy 	20-1	69-1	50-1		CD 
12	Giant Moon 	20-1	51-1	65-1		Wynn 
13	Into Mischief 	20-1	26-1	50-1		Wynn 
14	Majestic Warrior15-1	18-1	25-1		Wynn 
15	Monba 		30-1	16-1	25-1		Wynn 
16	Pyro 		12-1	5-1	8-1		Wynn 
17	Signature Move 	50-1	152-1	100-1		CD 
18	Smooth Air 	20-1	159-1	75-1		CD 
19	Tale of Ekati 	20-1	33-1	30-1		CD 
20	War Pass 	12-1	6-1	12-1		Wynn 
21	Yankee Bravo 	20-1	48-1	125-1		Wynn 
22	Z Fortune 	20-1	37-1	30-1		CD 
23	Z Humor 	15-1	45-1	60-1	 	Wynn 
24	Mutuel Field  	5-2	3-1	N/A	 	CD

A couple of other advantages to betting into Las Vegas style future books is that you get the price that you buy into. It's a true future book. With the Churchill future the pool, you don't know the exact odds you are getting until the pool closes. Obviously this can work both ways depending on the horse you're wagering on. Another advantage is that if you really like a horse or 2 that are part of the Churchill mutuel field, you will get longshot odds when betting into the Las Vegas style future books, as opposed to 3/1 . Now of course you could still win the wager if another field horse wins, but 3/1 is not what I'm looking for when making future wagers. 3/1 on the mutuel field may be an attractive wager if you don't like any of the named entrants however.

One other thing to keep in mind. The Wynn odds are not the only future odds available in Las Vegas. You have the option of shopping around. However, Wynn oddsmaker John Avello does a great job at managing the odds. Many shops will simply lower the odds as wagers come in, but will not increase the odds on those entries that are not taking any action. Avello will adjust the odds up or down according to the action coming in. Buyer beware. It pays to shop around. In summary, I guess it really depends on which horse you're interested in. As a whole, the Wynn future books offers more attractive odds on more entrants, and locks you into the price you buy at. The Churchill pools offers a Mutuel field, allowing you to wager against the named entrants. Also you are not limited in the amount you want to wager, but your wager does affect the odds you get.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by SlewsMyHero

You are taking the absolute worst of it by playing into these Churchill pools. I don't understand why they don't put all 400+ nominees as individual betting interests. Don't tell me they don't have the technology. Here's what a real future book looks like.

Courtesy of Wynn Las Vegas, updated 2/4/08.

I understand that not everyone has access to Las Vegas, but if I know I'm taking the worst of it, I stay out of the pool.

I'm going to Vegas in two weeks and this gives me something to compare with the Futures going on this week. I think I can wait and probably get much better odds there.

[Kasept]

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

Tale of Ekati could be one of the forgotten horses in this group.
Anything close to his current odds of 47-1 is worth a long look in my opinion.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Churchill odds this morning.. (M/L-Current)


1 Anak Nakal Nicholas Zito 20 46

2 Blackberry Road David Carroll 20 64

3 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 50 42

4 Colonel John Eoin Harty 30 25

5 Court Vision William Mott 12 13

6 Cowboy Cal Todd Pletcher 20 29

7 Crown of Thorns Richard Mandella 20 20

8 Denis of Cork David Carroll 30 54

9 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 15 19

10 Etched Kiaran McLaughlin 15 30

11 Georgie Boy Kathy Walsh 20 80

12 Giant Moon Richard Schosberg 20 56

13 Into Mischief Richard Mandella 20 24

14 Majestic Warrior William Mott 15 24

15 Monba Todd Pletcher 30 30

16 Pyro Steven Asmussen 12 10

17 Signature Move Eric Guillot 50 99

18 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 20 99

19 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 20 47

20 War Pass Nicholas Zito 12 3

21 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 20 42

22 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 20 78

23 Z Humor William Mott 15 87

24 All Other 3YO Bob Baffert 5/2 2

Isn't Crown of Thorns at 20/1 awfully enticing? I would think it would even figure to creep up once some of these run on Saturday.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

I'm going to Vegas in two weeks and this gives me something to compare with the Futures going on this week. I think I can wait and probably get much better odds there.

It's 50-50... sometimes I've found much better value with the CD pool, sometimes much better in Vegas... and that holds true for both the derby futures and the BC futures.

[cakes44]

I don't think much of Z Humor, but if you do, 80-1 for a horse that hasn't missed a workout and already has enough graded earnings is worth a look.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

It's 50-50... sometimes I've found much better value with the CD pool, sometimes much better in Vegas... and that holds true for both the derby futures and the BC futures.

My guess is that the "now horses" like a War Pass, Court Vision or Pyro would be a better play in Vegas while you might do better with a proven horse that is not at the forefront today like a Crown of Thorns or El Gato Malo in this wager.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?

I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick.

jay you get a "be nice"..anyone that has a scientific opinion that its the CONNECTIONS betting on the last tick..has a vivid imagination.

[Bobby Fischer]

quote dahoss :
"Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?"
This isn't a smartass answer even though you may think it is , but put 2 and 2 together. I didn't mention the horse you mentioned, and I plan to make money on that horse when he loses his first race.

quote dahoss:"I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick."
Not so much that a siphon will fold (although in general they are kind of mediocre turf sprinters or cheap route speed/mudders) , but that a horse who is moved up by a trainer usually folds at the higher classes. Zfortune is a good Siphon. He cost 4x his sire avg. He was the top siphon price @ 80k. With that Asmussen bridle and the heavily muscled frame he almost looks like a gray Curlin. And right now Asmussen has Zfortune looking like a superhorse. He hasn't shown any weakness yet. Maybe later in the prep season when he goes 9 furlongs, we get to look for signs of stress or weakness. Not convinced that he can rate and win at 10 furlongs, but hasn't shown a weakness yet. He has a good chance of winning the Risen Star.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Despite what you are going to think, I'm really not trying to give you a hard time, but I really don't get this. Z Fortune has been the most impressive horse you have seen on dirt so far? WHat about War Pass?

I am also thrown off by the pedigree stuff. You dislike it a lot and your reasoning is that horses "like that" fold when the class is at it's highest. Do progeny of Siphon get into stakes races and realize who their daddy is and get slower? Siphons are prone to cheap speed? Seems like a lot of throwing crap on the wall and seeing how much will stick.

If Z Fortune ever wins a major race without the benefit of an absolutely perfect trip it will be an upset of major performances. And, quite frankly, let's see him run a good race outside of Louisiana, where horses from the Assmussen barn are running one incredible race after another. Take a look at the LeComte again.....Z Humor had the trip of a lifetime. Is he a nice horse? Maybe, but for anyone to suggest he's been realistically impressive suggests a pretty cursory look at his actual performances. I would like to take the future book price on Icabad Crane against him in this summer's Albany at Saratoga.

The pedigree stuff is funny.

It's hard to take a stand against Asmussen down there.

Same goes for Amoss and Autrey. Seems like those guys could cure cancer if they were doctors.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If Z Fortune ever wins a major race without the benefit of an absolutely perfect trip it will be an upset of major performances. And, quite frankly, let's see him run a good race outside of Louisiana, where horses from the Assmussen barn are running one incredible race after another. Take a look at the LeComte again.....Z Humor had the trip of a lifetime. Is he a nice horse? Maybe, but for anyone to suggest he's been realistically impressive suggests a pretty cursory look at his actual performances. I would like to take the future book price on Icabad Crane against him in this summer's Albany at Saratoga.

The pedigree stuff is funny.

Not that his race on the inner at Aqueduct means much but that just happened to be a perfect trip as well (free and clear through slow fractions on speed-favoring track).

I imagine he'll be exposed this week and is probably not even the best Z pointing to the Derby.

As far as Albany future odds, you just wait to see The Truffle Man go tomorrow, he will vault to the head of the class. I'm gonna see if TheGreek still has him at 40-1.

NT