Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Turf War is a better horse because he's a full brother to Grasshopper.

I'm kidding of course.

I love Grasshopper but am still undecided on Turf War. He may just be a far better horse on dirt or he may have just benefited from a total pace meltdown in the Delta Jackpot. Of course, I guess those aren't really mutually exclusive so he could be both. Am looking forward to his next start as well but my gut feeling says he will disappoint.

[blackthroatedwind]

Has it occured to you that Grasshopper has barely lifted his legs outside of Saratoga?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Has it occured to you that Grasshopper has barely lifted his legs outside of Saratoga?

He's barely raced but I liked him long before Saratoga so he must have run well enough somewhere as a 2yo to grab my interest. I think the Travers took a lot of him and they probably brought him back a little quick in the Super Derby which led to them giving him another rest. We'll find out a lot this weekend in the Mineshaft. I think he'll roll but we'll have to wait and see. If he doesn't then your Saratoga theory has some more merit.

[blackthroatedwind]

You need to take yourself out of the equation, take a real look at his pps, and see the huge disparity between his performances at Saratoga, and elsewhere.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You need to take yourself out of the equation, take a real look at his pps, and see the huge disparity between his performances at Saratoga, and elsewhere.

He ran well to break his maiden around two turns at Churchill. His first two races back were at 6 and 7 furlongs which is hardly his optimal distance but he still managed a win and a 3rd place performance. I've already said the Super Derby was probably too quick to come back. If he runs fresh around two turns in the Mineshaft this weekend and doesn't run well then I'm with you on the Saratoga thing. Until then though I don't think we have adequate information to reach that conclusion based on 2yo form and some sprints. And besides, with the lack of G1s for older males, winning the Whitney and Woodward could be enough to win champion older male if a 3yo wins the Classic (see 2007) so there are a lot worse things than to be a Saratoga specialist.

[blackthroatedwind]

My initial comments were an exaggeration. However, his non-Saratoga races are decidedly worse than his Saratoga races and until he proves otherwise I think he is very much a bet against.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Has it occured to you that Grasshopper has barely lifted his legs outside of Saratoga?

I seem to remember trying to convince people of this BEFORE the Super Derby, and everybody told me I was crazy and that the horse couldn't lose.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I seem to remember trying to convince people of this BEFORE the Super Derby, and everybody told me I was crazy and that the horse couldn't lose.

The more people that disagree the more likely you are to be right.

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

Considering that this horse has not yet won a stakes race, I think you might be a bit ahead of yourself here.

[Bobby Fischer]

Grasshopper isn't as good as the public thinks he was vs. SS.
Grasshopper also didn't run as poorly as the public thinks in the Super Derby.

He is a nice horse. He hasn't shown that he is some kind of division leader at all yet, but hey he should be a little stronger this year.
I don't expect him to win the Mineshaft, but he has a shot.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

I'd be absolutely shocked if Grasshopper wins an eclipse this year. . .

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'd be absolutely shocked if Grasshopper wins an eclipse this year. . .

No kidding. This could also go down as one of BBBs most quotables.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

GRASSHOPPER is a very talented individual who wiil act on any surface at any track. True the paper implies that his races at Saratoga were better than his others, and they were, but this is one serious colt.

In the Travers he caught the big horse while stretching and picking up MAJOR weight and it was a very humid day. Shipped to CD, then another humid day in Shreveport took a bunch out of him. He has a good chance to get an eclipse this year although he looks plenty short Saturday. BBB

Have you ever been right before a race?

[Dunbar]

Here's a link to live odds for Future Pool 1:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/future-wager/odds

Our enlightened racing brethren have already put down a couple thousand dollars on Pyro, making him the 2nd fav among individual interests. I guess they couldn't wait 2 days to see how he does on Saturday.

--Dunbar