Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

dennis of cork struggled to get up in his last.the cali horses need to get a run on a dirt surface..Its feb..and of those mentioned crown of thorns is the best of all .giant moon gets a ding fom this guy..and no mention of zitos other horses....at this point its pretty foggy......

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

dennis of cork struggled to get up in his last..

Denis of Cork hated the off going in that ALW race according to everyone involved with him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Denis of Cork hated the off going in that ALW race according to everyone involved with him.

Did they ask him?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Did they ask him?

Saw it on his facebook page..

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Saw it on his facebook page..

Me too!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Did they ask him?

All this Dennis of Cork and Anak Nakal stuff I just don't get.

They ran a ton of 2yo races that day at Churchill - and the filly sprinter American County flat out stole the show from the 2yo races that day.

She ran six furlongs in 1:08 2/5ths and a few races later Dennis Of Cork won his debut in 1:22 2/5ths - basically, AC running a raw Beyer figure 17 points faster than DofC.

There were more than a few horses who earned themselves A LOT of hype on that card - for running races that make themselves look like slowpokes by comparison with American County's race that day.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

All this Dennis of Cork and Anak Nakal stuff I just don't get.

They ran a ton of 2yo races that day at Churchill - and the filly sprinter American County flat out stole the show from the 2yo races that day.

She ran six furlongs in 1:08 2/5ths and a few races later Dennis Of Cork won his debut in 1:22 2/5ths - basically, AC running a raw Beyer figure 17 points faster than DofC.

There were more than a few horses who earned themselves A LOT of hype on that card - for running races that make themselves look like slowpokes by comparison with American County's race that day.

There's always way too much hype for the " they won at Churchill " horses. However, it's a better year than most to be unproven and on the cusp of being slow. I'm not so sure about Anak Nakal but I know someone that's very high on him. We'll see.

I'm confused by Check it Twice. His races prior to his last were OK but nothing special and considering what we've seen from Coal Play in his last two I'm really not sure what to make of the race. Maybe Check It Twice exists in a bubble, but to me there is more contrary evidence to him than positive. However, I agree with you that Pletcher rates to move him up.....but for how long? However, at least he has one possibly fast race, which is more than you can say for most 3YOs getting hype these days.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not so sure about Anak Nakal but I know someone that's very high on him. We'll see.

From watching his three races, he makes Great Point look like a fine talent...and Andromeda's Hero look like a superstar.

If he can only toss a figure in the Mid 80's with a great trip - and is getting a lot of hype for it - I'll pass.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Is American County the Roman's that came back and won the Sunshine Millions sprint?

Yes

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think those who wanted to play Check It Twice this time will be happy come May 3rd when they aren't ripping up a losing pool 1 future ticket.

Only one horse will win - lots of future tickets will be torn. And it still is a comical error to not include a horse in the field who could easily take more money than half of the horses in the lineup.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Especially since Coal Play has come back to run 2 awful races.

I know - but he was loose in a route that day - and outsprinted in his two GP duds.

The number that day at CRC really was solid - there were a lot of routes.

[robfla]

OAKS POOL #1

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 A to the Croft McPeek Kenneth G 121 LA 30-1
2 2 American County Romans Dale 121 L 30-1
3 3 Backseat Rhythm Reynolds Patrick L 121 L 20-1
4 4 Bsharpsonata Salzman Timothy 121 L 30-1
5 5 By the Light Dutrow, Jr. R E 121 L 15-1
6 6 C J's Leelee McPeek Kenneth G 121 L 30-1
7 7 Country Star Frankel Robert 121 BL 8-1
8 8 Eight Belles Jones J Larry 121 L 30-1
9 9 Final Fling Mullins Jeff 121 BL 20-1
10 10 Game Face Pletcher Todd A 121 L 20-1
11 11 Golden Doc A Abrams Barry 121 BL 20-1
12 12 Grace Anatomy O'Neill Doug 121 BL 30-1
13 13 Grace and Power Klesaris Steve 121 BL 30-1
14 14 Indian Blessing Baffert Bob 121 BL 8-1
15 15 Izarra McAnally Ronald 121 BL 50-1
16 16 Jolie the Cat Asmussen Steven M 121 L 30-1
17 17 Proud Spell Jones J Larry 121 LA 12-1
18 18 Pure Clan Holthus Robert E 121 L 12-1
19 19 Rated Fiesty Asmussen Steven M 121 L 20-1
20 20 Sea Chanter Pletcher Todd A 121 BL 20-1
21 21 Tasha's Miracle Sadler John W 121 L 20-1
22 22 Tizaqueena Stidham Michael 121 L 50-1
23 23 Turn Away Frankel Robert 121 BL 20-1
24 24 All Other Three Year Old Fillies Baffert Bob 121 5-2

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

dennis of cork struggled to get up in his last.the cali horses need to get a run on a dirt surface..Its feb..and of those mentioned crown of thorns is the best of all .giant moon gets a ding fom this guy..and no mention of zitos other horses....at this point its pretty foggy......

I agree. Still foggy and early.
I like Denis of Cork, not sure if he will be a big time horse or just a nice horse... I give him a little slack for that last race. With the track being off, Borel kind of sacraficed his usuall style to just win the race. Borel felt he was much the best, and he did the job, although it was workman-like and not flashy. I think it would have appeared much more impressive had the track been fast. Borel supposedly has commited to Turf War, and a jockey choice would be key for DoC. Who else can time and rally so well as Borel? Leparoux isn't terrible, but is he a Derby jockey?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I agree. Still foggy and early.
I like Denis of Cork, not sure if he will be a big time horse or just a nice horse... I give him a little slack for that last race. With the track being off, Borel kind of sacraficed his usuall style to just win the race. Borel felt he was much the best, and he did the job, although it was workman-like and not flashy. I think it would have appeared much more impressive had the track been fast. Borel supposedly has commited to Turf War, and a jockey choice would be key for DoC. Who else can time and rally so well as Borel? Leparoux isn't terrible, but is he a Derby jockey?

To answer the last part, I think Leparoux is a Derby jockey and last I heard he will be on Court Vision when he returns and that is his mount indefinitely.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

To answer the last part, I think Leparoux is a Derby jockey and last I heard he will be on Court Vision when he returns and that is his mount indefinitely.

NT

thanks ! good info. They seem to be a pretty good fit.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He has all kinds of these little positive progression angles going for him.

* The 97 Beyer (which is 7 points higher than Court Vision's top) came for trainer Kathleen O'Connell. Isn't it very likely Pletcher will improve off O'Connell?

* Does any horse in the crop really have a Classic distance pedigree that is any better than his?...

By Repent (a son of a Preakness winner who was 2nd in the Travers off a layoff longer than Bellamy Road's and with just, I believe, two or three published works in him)

Out of a dam who was 10-4-2-2 and made six figures in route races, while running nice figures. The 2nd dam is 3 time Grade 1 winner Christmas Past, who won a Grade 1 over males in the '83 Gulfstream Park handicap.

* After running 2nd at 7 furlongs in its debut (to the longshot 2nd place finisher in last weekends Swale) - this guy has four two-turn route races under him. With that kind of foundation in him....Pletcher doesn't have to rush him and keep him on such a tight schedule.

The knock I have, is that Calder is a real tiring surface and sometimes horses who thrive over it won't fully reproduce their good form on much more glib dirt tracks. It's not that a track profile favored him at Calder, because it's as speed friendly as it is laboring...and speed isn't this horses game.

All in all ... he was a lousy exclusion. Especially with him running this weekend...and bettors having a chance to watch his race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Check It Twice was a HORRIBLE exclusion.

He would certainly have been a better selection than Georgie Boy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by miraja2

He would certainly have been a better selection than Georgie Boy.

No doubt.

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No doubt.

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

I don't know, it is a free $25 and I have to play it, I think he will at least get there...

If you had to play $25 on the wager, one bet, who would you do? I'll consider it, and give you a 10% royalty if it happens, and don't give me no 4/1 shot.....

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You and Scavs will need to explain to me what I'm missing with Anak Nakal....

I would be in a state of shock if he wins the Derby. He got a dream trip from the garden spot behind three horses going too fast in the KY Jockey Club. The final 5/16ths of that race was run in 31.60 - by comparison, a 2yo filly MSW race on the same card, at the same distance, produced a final 5/16ths in a faster 30.77.

Even with all going his own way - his Beyer was only in the 80's - and he's almost 10 points slower than Giacomo was as a 2yo .. and unlike Giacomo, his big fig came with things going his way ... as opposed to earning it with a legit trip.

There is no doubt that he was not overwhelmingly fast as a 2yo, and would need to improve quite a bit to win a G1 Classic, but they all do at this point.
It just seems like a big crapshoot to me right now.
You are absolutely right about him having a very good trip at CD, but Blackberry Road's was pretty good too, and that one saved a lot of ground compared to Anak Nakal who was 4-wide around the second turn.
His pedigree also points to a colt that could certainly improve with both age and added distance. His connections also seem pretty high on him and since he already has the earnings to get in, they can chart whatever course they choose.
I am not going to place a future wager on him, b/c the price probably won't be right, but if I had a free $25 wager like Scav, I think he would probably be the way I would go.
I think the other interesting horse in this futures process might actually be War Pass. His pedigree and running style sure don't look like a Derby winner, but if enough people feel this way - or if they just fall in love with whomever wins this Saturday - might it actually be possible to get a halfway decent price on seemingly the most talented animal in the crop?