Derby Futures Pool 1 (2/7-10)

[blackthroatedwind]

Opinions are one thing, but it's another to not have your facts straight or to leave out pretty pertinent information.....


* Cowboy Cal: Three-time turf winner trained by Todd Pletcher is following a path by design that resembles 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. His dirt test is coming soon, so he could be an interesting price stab here.


Ummmm......not according to his trainer Todd Pletcher who very recently said he is remaining on the grass and possibly will try the Blue Grass ( polytrack ) before a possible run in the Derby. Todd suggested it seemed that some turf horses liked the Churchill dirt surface but frankly sounded less than enthusiastic about running this horse on the dirt. Regardless, unless the Derby is " soon ", then as of the last report I read this information is inaccurate.


* Etched: Strong winner of both career starts last year, including the one-mile, Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Oct. 20. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding with distance horses. Consider for Future Wager play.


Call me crazy, but don't you think it was worth mentioning that he is wintering in Dubai? Kiaran McLaughlin is outstanding with distance horses? Ummm, OK. Thanks.

[Indian Charlie]

yeah, that whole list writeup is pretty shaky.

majestic warrior?? uh, yeah, right.

i would be shocked to see that horse even run in the derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Yeah, I was going to mention that as well, but at least that's an opinion. Not an opinion you or I seem to agree with.....but he's entitled.

A horse that runs like a closing sprinter, who's dam was a closing sprinter, feels tough to recommend for the Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

i was going to critique his comments in greater detail, but felt he probably had a tough time coming up with something useful to say for most of those.

my commentary would have been more along the lines of eliminating all but a few of them.

back to majestic warrior however. all the hype on that horse revolves around a highly suspect race. wasnt it a three, or maybe four horse field?

one horse came out hurt and hasn't run back yet, and the other one, i dont think he's won or done anything useful back at all either.

he got a dream setup too.

mott cant really think he's his greatest derby prospect ever, can he?

come to think of it, he's not really a derby fever sorta guy anyways, so even if he does, it's not saying anything.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i was going to critique his comments in greater detail, but felt he probably had a tough time coming up with something useful to say for most of those.

my commentary would have been more along the lines of eliminating all but a few of them.

back to majestic warrior however. all the hype on that horse revolves around a highly suspect race. wasnt it a three, or maybe four horse field?

one horse came out hurt and hasn't run back yet, and the other one, i dont think he's won or done anything useful back at all either.

he got a dream setup too.

mott cant really think he's his greatest derby prospect ever, can he?

come to think of it, he's not really a derby fever sorta guy anyways, so even if he does, it's not saying anything.

While I don't completely disagree with you guys' analysis regarding this colt, I don't think all the hype comes just from his performance in that race. Some of it is pedigree-hype too. If a horse with a different pedigree ran the exact same race that he did in the Hopeful, there would be far less Derby-hype. When a horse by AP Indy and out of a multiple-G1 winning daughter of Seeking the Gold runs that kind of race at 7f, people - perhaps understandably - start getting excited about the horse's potential when stretching out as a 3yo.
But of course, that still leaves the Champagne to explain away.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by miraja2

While I don't completely disagree with you guys' analysis regarding this colt, I don't think all the hype comes just from his performance in that race. Some of it is pedigree-hype too. If a horse with a different pedigree ran the exact same race that he did in the Hopeful, there would be far less Derby-hype. When a horse by AP Indy and out of a multiple-G1 winning daughter of Seeking the Gold runs that kind of race at 7f, people - perhaps understandably - start getting excited about the horse's potential when stretching out as a 3yo.

The pedigree stuff goes without saying.

Thank whatever deity you believe in that this horse is not named bob black jack!!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Thank whatever deity you believe in that this horse is not named bob black jack!!

Okay.















































Thank you PG1985.....wherever you are......

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

True, but his mother was a closing sprinter. A very good closing sprinter and deadly at Saratoga, but she was best around one turn.

Yeah, and based on what we've seen from him thus far, (which isn't very much) it looks like there is a good chance he will take after her rather than his sire or dam-sire. I was just pointing out that I think seeing those two in his pedigree is a HUGE part of whatever hype there might be surrounding this horse.
If Mott really thinks he is a great Derby prospect, does he have some sort of explanation for the Champagne? Did he offer one after the race? I honestly can't remember.

[lemoncrush]

Being that there isn't really a standout derby favorite as of yet, it would seem that the "Field" wager could easily be the best money wager in the pool this weekend.

[Scav]

Churchill Downs has given me a free $25 future wager so I'll probably play Anak Nakal, he should at least get there, and has the talent so what the hell, probably be decent odds since he isn't racing this weekend and people will forget about him after they unload on the winners of this weekend

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

* Cowboy Cal: Three-time turf winner trained by Todd Pletcher is following a path by design that resembles 2006 Derby winner Barbaro. His dirt test is coming soon, so he could be an interesting price stab here.


Ummmm......not according to his trainer Todd Pletcher who very recently said he is remaining on the grass and possibly will try the Blue Grass ( polytrack ) before a possible run in the Derby. Todd suggested it seemed that some turf horses liked the Churchill dirt surface but frankly sounded less than enthusiastic about running this horse on the dirt. Regardless, unless the Derby is " soon ", then as of the last report I read this information is inaccurate.

yea Pletch kind of made an early announcement that he was going the Barbaro Route... and now he switched plans and is going the less fun Twilight Meteor route (if u goes lanes end @ turfway)

Cowboy Cal is very impressive to me. He looks like a big turf horse, but he does have the running style. And he has amazing willingness at the finish. Some of those types strike the ground pretty hard when the run on dirt, and maybe it could be a concern as to preps (if he is derby bound at all). If he can run his race on dirt, look out.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

yea Pletch kind of made an early announcement that he was going the Barbaro Route... and now he switched plans and is going the less fun Twilight Meteor route (if u goes lanes end @ turfway)

Cowboy Cal is very impressive to me. He looks like a big turf horse, but he does have the running style. And he has amazing willingness at the finish. Some of those types strike the ground pretty hard when the run on dirt, and maybe it could be a concern as to preps (if he is derby bound at all). If he can run his race on dirt, look out.

My wallet hopes you're right.