2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[CSC]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Wow, you calling me wrong. I didn't expect that at all. We'll see.

For the record, I DO think there was a problem. I think there were two of them actually.

PACE and ANOTHER TURN.

Why are you ignoring his last 3 races, if you saw them no one can say the pace would have affected him to the point of being beaten 20 lengths or so by Spring At Last and more so being outpaced or outstayed by Kiss The kid. Anyway I hope there are many that share this opinion, the better the odds on Daaher the next time he races.

[blackthroatedwind]

I wouldn't be overly optimistic about him racing any time soon.

[CSC]

Probably right there, it wouldn't be much a surprise.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CSC

Why are you ignoring his last 3 races, if you saw them no one can say the pace would have affected him to the point of being beaten 20 lengths or so by Spring At Last and more so being outpaced or outstayed by Kiss The kid. Anyway I hope there are many that share this opinion, the better the odds on Daaher the next time he races.

I'm not ignoring them at all. Why would you say "if you saw them" as if to suggest that I didn't? I did and I don't come to the same conclusion as you do. If anyone is ignoring anything, it's you. That's not meant to be critical of you at all though. But think about it. Which of his last three races presented circumstances anywhere close to what he faced today? None of them. Go look at Kiss the Kid's record. He's shown a couple of wins at 8.5f and one at 1m, 70 yds. He's also shown on several occasions that, while he did weaken late, he held up decently well at distances well over a mile. Daaher, for any number of reasons, the fact is that he's now run three two-turn stakes races and hasn't come close to being effective.

In any case, the opinion that I'm giving is NOT that this was a true indication of how Daaher would perform under today's circumstances. There could very well be something wrong with him. I was only saying that before automatically assuming there is and writing this race off, consider that there might not be.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm not ignoring them at all. Why would you say "if you saw them" as if to suggest that I didn't? I did and I don't come to the same conclusion as you do. If anyone is ignoring anything, it's you. That's not meant to be critical of you at all though. But think about it. Which of his last three races presented circumstances anywhere close to what he faced today? None of them. Go look at Kiss the Kid's record. He's shown a couple of wins at 8.5f and one at 1m, 70 yds. He's also shown on several occasions that, while he did weaken late, he held up decently well at distances well over a mile. Daaher, for any number of reasons, the fact is that he's now run three two-turn stakes races and hasn't come close to being effective.

In any case, the opinion that I'm giving is NOT that this was a true indication of how Daaher would perform under today's circumstances. There could very well be something wrong with him. I was only saying that before automatically assuming there is and writing this race off, consider that there might not be.

I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but the bases seem to be loaded(covered)with this post. True his races in Canada were not overly impressive it is also fair to say at that stage of his career he was not the horse he is today. While I agree to a point he still has to prove he can run at as well at a mile to a mile and an eighth, today was not the day to make that determination.

[Smooth Operator]

Throat, we gonna see back-to-back BC Juvy/KY Derby winners?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Smooth Operator

Throat, we gonna see back-to-back BC Juvy/KY Derby winners?

I hope so....but we'll have to see how far War Pass can carry his speed. He's a very terrific horse, but, obviously he has to answer the ultimate question of stamina.

I'll easily take his talent against any 3YO out there. But, sometimes that isn't enough.

[justindew]

THE END!

Great thread guys. I laughed. I cried. I laughed some more.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

THE END!

Great thread guys. I laughed. I cried. I laughed some more.

A similar reaction to what most have to your Derby blog.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CSC

I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but the bases seem to be loaded(covered)with this post. True his races in Canada were not overly impressive it is also fair to say at that stage of his career he was not the horse he is today. While I agree to a point he still has to prove he can run at as well at a mile to a mile and an eighth, today was not the day to make that determination.

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

I apologize that I had to go to work and there were no computers for me to put in all of my pre-race thoughts for your approval. I know it's not the same but if you were to look on the thread discussing the Cigar Mile, it's pretty clear where I stood on this horse. I totally attributed that win to the conditions (pace, small field, huge weight break, and the fact that ML was over the top) rather than to his being that good. Again, I know that probably means nothing to you but after that race, I couldn't wait to bet against him in a race like this.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Funny, you didn't make one post regarding this horse, and your assessment of his chances in the Donn, before the race. But, apparently, you had the whole thing figured out.....after the race.

I don't know what King Glorious said about the Donn prior to the running but your point is well taken as it regards handicapping in general. It's very easy do post-mortems, but entirely another to foretell same in a pre-race analysis.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

You seriously want us to believe, looking at the past performances and you did say you saw his last 3 races that you didn't even entertain the thought that Daaher could win this *coughing* Gr.1 race. If Curlin was in the field I might just believe you. Thanks for the conversation tonight I think...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by CSC

You seriously want us to believe, looking at the past performances and you did say you saw his last 3 races that you didn't even entertain the thought that Daaher could win this *coughing* Gr.1 race. If Curlin was in the field I might just believe you. Thanks for the conversation tonight I think...

That is not AT ALL what I said. I said I figured one of two things would happen. Either he'd romp or be nowhere to be found and I said I was betting on the latter. So of course I entertained the thought that he could win and win easily.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

That is not AT ALL what I said. I said I figured one of two things would happen. Either he'd romp or be nowhere to be found and I said I was betting on the latter. So of course I entertained the thought that he could win and win easily.

I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning.

Again confused, anyway goodnight.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

One question. How do you know it wasn't? If it's because he didn't run to expectations, I'd like to know how those expectations were reached. Were they expectations or assumptions? I had seen no reason going into the race that he would be able to handle the conditions today and therefore, I had no expectation of him winning. I will admit that I didn't think he'd finish as bad as he did but to be honest, and I realize that this won't be believed, his finish today surprised me less than a win would have. I went in thinking one of two things would happen:

-he'd vastly improved, would take on the challengers, run them off of their feet and would dominate the race and prove his recent form was not just due to circumstances being in his favor but that he was really that good.

-he still was the same horse that had had previous troubles trying stakes company and going two turns and would be nowhere to be found at the end.

I was betting on the latter scenario. I didn't figure on anything in between. It was inconceivable to me that he could handle the conditions and still get beaten by a better horse.

When I handicap, or at least try to, what I try to always go against is a horse that's favored to do something because it's assumed he can do it when facing other horses that have proven they can.

Wow. . . still trying to cover all the bases. . . "I thought he'd either win or lose"

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Wow. . . still trying to cover all the bases. . . "I thought he'd either win or lose"

Amazing your comprehension skills are. I don't know how much more clearly I can say that I thought he would lose and expected he would lose. Saying that I knew he could win was in response to CSC saying that I said I didn't see any way that Daaher could win. I did. Just a small chance.

How about this for all of u that need it:

Next time Daaher runs a 1-turn race, I give him a 70% chance of winning. Next time he runs a 2-turn stakes race, I give him a 20% chance or less of winning. This is in case I'm working and can't post my pre-race analysis beforehand. Good enough?