2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The very idea that Eddie Castro is back on this horse after absolutely costing him victory last time is beyond ridiculous.

I just don't think that turf speed will translate to the dirt....but your point is valid and if they want to butcher and sacrifice him again then he could prove Daaher's undoing.

I think you are right about Kiss being cheap on dirt. And also that he probably won't be as quick on the dirt, and even if he is - this is NOT the pace scenario you would want for him. I don't like Fairbanks at all. I do like the "prep" Spring at Last is coming off of. Has O'Neill had any success shipping to Florida lately? I'm drawing a blank, he probably shipped someone on Millions day?

EDIT looked like he sent down Swiss Current and Cobalt Blue. Both ran about where I expected (to form?) but neither was competitive. My gut says O'neill shipper shouldn't run a recent best, but I don't have a lot of logic behind that.

[blackthroatedwind]

The idea that Spring at Last won on a surface last time he doesn't even particularly have an affinity for is a good one. My problem with him is I have never thought he was much horse. But, maybe I am being unfairly prejudiced.

The O'Neill shipping factor has occurred to me as well.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The O'Neill shipping factor has occurred to me as well.

Can anyone name the last time O'Neill won with a shipper beyond a mile and a sixteenth? All his horses going longer seem to spit the bit around that mile and sixteenth mark outside of California but just grow stronger at that point in California. Pretty amazing phenomenom.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Can anyone name the last time O'Neill won with a shipper beyond a mile and a sixteenth? All his horses going longer seem to spit the bit around that mile and sixteenth mark outside of California but just grow stronger at that point in California. Pretty amazing phenomenom.

Four times in the last five years....

The last time was this summer when Shamdinan in the Secretariat ( 1 1/4 turf ). Prior to that Tedo won the Wildcat at Turf Paradise at 1 3/8 on the grass on April 30th 2006. Thor's Echo won the WinStar Derby in April of 2005 at Sunland Park and Supah Blitz won the Carl Rose at Calder in November 2004. Both those races were 1 1/8th on the dirt.

He is 15 for 101 at a mile or over outside of California in the last five years. One was at a mile ( Sky Jack in the Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs in August of 2003 ) and the rest were at 1 1/16th. His ROI, for what it's worth, is 1.45 for those starts.

At 1 1/8th and over his record is 34 starts with 4 wins 2 seconds and 1 third.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Four times in the last five years....

The last time was this summer when Shamdinan in the Secretariat ( 1 1/4 turf ). Prior to that Tedo won the Wildcat at Turf Paradise at 1 3/8 on the grass on April 30th 2006. Thor's Echo won the WinStar Derby in April of 2005 at Sunland Park and Supah Blitz won the Carl Rose at Calder in November 2004. Both those races were 1 1/8th on the dirt.

He is 15 for 101 at a mile or over outside of California in the last five years. One was at a mile ( Sky Jack in the Longacres Mile at Emerald Downs in August of 2003 ) and the rest were at 1 1/16th. His ROI, for what it's worth, is 1.45 for those starts.

I wasn't even thinking turf races since the dynamics of those races can be so different that they may not be as tiring. So April '05 at Sunland and Nov '04 are the last two on the dirt. Pretty staggering numbers. Thanks for the info.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I wasn't even thinking turf races since the dynamics of those races can be so different that they may not be as tiring. So April '05 at Sunland and Nov '04 are the last two on the dirt. Pretty staggering numbers. Thanks for the info.

I'm not so sure that they're that bad. He was probably about 2 for 24 in dirt races ( I don't feel like looking it up again ). So he was about 8% shipping. Isn't he only about 13% at home? He was also second with Notional in last year's Florida Derby I think.

We should also look up how he does shipping overall.....and how he does sprints versus routes in California if we want to get the whole picture.

Remind me tomorrow.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not so sure that they're that bad. He was probably about 2 for 24 in dirt races ( I don't feel like looking it up again ). So he was about 8% shipping. Isn't he only about 13% at home? He was also second with Notional in last year's Florida Derby I think.

We should also look up how he does shipping overall.....and how he does sprints versus routes in California if we want to get the whole picture.

Remind me tomorrow.

Yeah, but he only ships if he has a horse with good odds. ROI doesn't really tell you that much since it doesn't tell you about the obscene waste of money out of state on horses like Lava Man, Cobalt Blue, Andujar, and Great Hunter who have all gone off at low odds at 9f+ and by my count are yet to hit the board. If he had other winners in that time it would be one thing, but he doesn't. Notional did run second in the FL Derby but I happen to think he was talented enough that he would have won the Santa Anita Derby if he stayed home and would have crushed Scat Daddy if they squared off in California.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Four times in the last five years....

The last time was this summer when Shamdinan in the Secretariat ( 1 1/4 turf ).

I wouldn't even consider this as he was shipped to Arlington from the Euro connections, he never even saw the horse until his people got here.

Looking forward to him this year. I think he could be decent in Penna's care.