2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gulfstream has been very even for the most part. Horses can come from well back.

Fairbanks is in a no win situation. First of all, and probably most importantly, he's not much horse. However, tactically he's way against it, as the horse who is very much the horse to beat has his exact running style, and is a lot better at it. How can that possibly translate into a win by Fairbanks ( assuming Daaher doesn't lose his rider or worse )?

I don't completely discount the possibility of some kind of meltdown. But, Fairbanks will be the cause of that....not the beneficiary.

So you think Daaher will have no problem with the distance? I'm not sold on him past 8 furlongs. If Fairbanks can pressure him then it's a coin flip on who will win.

Now this is all a moot point if I don't get 6/1 or higher on Fairbanks. He's playable at those odds, especially in the exotics.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

So you think Daaher will have no problem with the distance? I'm not sold on him past 8 furlongs. If Fairbanks can pressure him then it's a coin flip on who will win.

Now this is all a moot point if I don't get 6/1 or higher on Fairbanks. He's playable at those odds, especially in the exotics.

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem. But, the horse who pressures him will have a bigger problem.

Fairbanks has very limited ability. It may be a coin flip whether or not he runs last, but he's not in a coin flip with Daaher no matter how you cut it.

I'm really not trying to be a wiseguy and I have no idea what you find appealing about Fairbanks. I honestly don't think he is mildly interesting at 20-1.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem. But, the horse who pressures him will have a bigger problem.

Fairbanks has very limited ability. It may be a coin flip whether or not he runs last, but he's not in a coin flip with Daaher no matter how you cut it.

I'm really not trying to be a wiseguy and I have no idea what you find appealing about Fairbanks. I honestly don't think he is mildly interesting at 20-1.

The only horse I see that could benefit from Daaher and Fairbanks dueling is A.P. Arrow and he's not exactly the greatest horse off a short layoff.

I'm overlooking the bad form Fairbanks had in his last two races and looking at what he did in the spring and early summer.

I just think it's between Daaher and Fairbanks. It's worth a small wager to keep me interested in an otherwise shittastic race.

[Bobby Fischer]

Swale has a few interesting ones.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Swale has a few interesting ones.

6th (3:40) Swale S. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Mr. Foz 116 L
2 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 116 L
3 Surrealdeal Cruz M R 116 L
4 St. Joe Coa E M 116 L
5 Silver Edition Velasquez C 116 L
6 Wincat Velazquez J R 116
7 Coal Play Castro E 116 L




I figured you must have been looking at the wrong race, so I posted this again.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by miraja2

6th (3:40) Swale S. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Mr. Foz 116 L
2 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 116 L
3 Surrealdeal Cruz M R 116 L
4 St. Joe Coa E M 116 L
5 Silver Edition Velasquez C 116 L
6 Wincat Velazquez J R 116
7 Coal Play Castro E 116 L

I figured you must have been looking at the wrong race, so I posted this again.

What do you think of Eaton's Gift, miraja?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

What do you think of Eaton's Gift, miraja?

Moderatey talented one-turn colt that needs the lead. He could certainly win this race, but I don't see him as a legitimate major stakes horse.
I am willing to concede to Bobby Fischer that Wincat is "interesting" given his debut, but I have little or no interest in the rest of this field.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I figured you must have been looking at the wrong race, so I posted this again.

lol

I really like St. Joe. Not convinced that he is a quitter yet. Eatons Gift has a decent chance to run well again. Wincat could be anything. And then you have Cornelio Velazquez on Silver Edition with probably my fourth favorite in the race coming off an (overacheiving?) 2nd in the Hutcheson. You could toss the ill advised mile efforts from Silver Edition and he almost looks like a sprinter prospect. I'll be rooting for St. Joe but any of these could win.

[Bobby Fischer]

That Kiss the Kidd actually ran a fairly quick 6furlongs in the CanTurf. huh.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

That Kiss the Kidd actually ran a fairly quick 6furlongs in the CanTurf. huh.

The very idea that Eddie Castro is back on this horse after absolutely costing him victory last time is beyond ridiculous.

I just don't think that turf speed will translate to the dirt....but your point is valid and if they want to butcher and sacrifice him again then he could prove Daaher's undoing.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The very idea that Eddie Castro is back on this horse after absolutely costing him victory last time is beyond ridiculous.

I just don't think that turf speed will translate to the dirt....but your point is valid and if they want to butcher and sacrifice him again then he could prove Daaher's undoing.

I think you are right about Kiss being cheap on dirt. And also that he probably won't be as quick on the dirt, and even if he is - this is NOT the pace scenario you would want for him. I don't like Fairbanks at all. I do like the "prep" Spring at Last is coming off of. Has O'Neill had any success shipping to Florida lately? I'm drawing a blank, he probably shipped someone on Millions day?

EDIT looked like he sent down Swiss Current and Cobalt Blue. Both ran about where I expected (to form?) but neither was competitive. My gut says O'neill shipper shouldn't run a recent best, but I don't have a lot of logic behind that.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem.

If he gets pressured here he might very well be struggling down the stretch, but I don't think this bunch will be good enough to take advantage of that, even if it happens.
As far as I am concerned, his performances since that August race at Saratoga indicate that he is simply better than these. Although 8f is probably a better distance for him than 9f, he beat those allowance horses by 13+ going 9f at the Spa, and he certainly has a two-turn pedigree.
I think the smart money here may end up being on the favorite.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If he gets pressured here he might very well be struggling down the stretch, but I don't think this bunch will be good enough to take advantage of that, even if it happens.
As far as I am concerned, his performances since that August race at Saratoga indicate that he is simply better than these. Although 8f is probably a better distance for him than 9f, he beat those allowance horses by 13+ going 9f at the Spa, and he certainly has a two-turn pedigree.
I think the smart money here may end up being on the favorite.

I mostly agree and slightly disagree.

If you really think there will be a meltdown then that's how you play the race and you pitch Daaher. I'm not saying I feel this is the case, but if he gets run into the ground, the closers are talented enough to swallow him up.

However, I think he's faster early than Fairbanks, and cheap speed like Kiss the Kid has no realistic hope of competing early or late ( and should be scratched ). Thus, I think while the pace will be reasonably quick, it won't be pressured, and his superiority will likely do this field in.

But, if I play multi-race bets I will try to find the likely closer or two to back up with in case the meltdown scenerio occurs. However, in the 20 minutes or so I've looked at this race, I don't think that's likely. Perhaps I will change my mind when I look more.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But, if I play multi-race bets I will try to find the likely closer or two to back up with in case the meltdown scenerio occurs. However, in the 20 minutes or so I've looked at this race, I don't think that's likely. Perhaps I will change my mind when I look more.

He looks like a pretty strong single to me, but I guess if I was going to go two-deep I would probably throw in AP Arrow. If there actually is a total meltdown up front - which I also doubt - he seems to me to be the most probable winner. His last race was actually pretty good, he ran fairly well over this track last year, he doesn't have a kiss-of-death outside post, and he seems to run just fine (for him) off of a layoff.