2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can understand someone wanting to take a shot against Daaher. The major reason for this may, in fact, be the presense of Fairbanks. Not that Fairbanks has a prayer, because he doesn't, but because he could run Daaher into the ground. It is far from clear that Daaher is going to be comfortable rating in a two turn route and Fairbanks is the one who might force him to do that. On the other hand, Daaher is faster early than Fairbanks, so perhaps he will bottom out this subpar field. But, if they really send Fairbanks it could be Daaher's undoing. Either way, Fairbanks has no shot to win.

What I would really like to do, however, is book all monies on the oddly popular Einstein. I guess I understand the connections wanting to take a shot at winning a Grade 1 on the dirt to give him some residual value. However, he's not a dirt horse. Two wins in off the turf races on wet tracks doesn't make him one. He will be severely undervalued.

So basically Daaher is going to win. If Fairbanks can't pressure him then it's highly unlikely a closer will get to him on that airstrip.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

So basically Daaher is going to win. If Fairbanks can't pressure him then it's highly unlikely a closer will get to him on that airstrip.

Gulfstream has been very even for the most part. Horses can come from well back.

Fairbanks is in a no win situation. First of all, and probably most importantly, he's not much horse. However, tactically he's way against it, as the horse who is very much the horse to beat has his exact running style, and is a lot better at it. How can that possibly translate into a win by Fairbanks ( assuming Daaher doesn't lose his rider or worse )?

I don't completely discount the possibility of some kind of meltdown. But, Fairbanks will be the cause of that....not the beneficiary.

[whodey17]

I will take Dr Googles Boogles

Originally Posted by whodey17

I will take Dr Googles Boogles

That horse is slower than molasses.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

That horse is slower than molasses.

Well sure....but in this group I think molasses would be a good bet at about 12/1.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm not sure Dr. Googles Boogles is much horse, but if you are betting against Daaher, he's the type of horse you want.

I do think he got a mediocre ride in the Hal's Hope. However, I'm also not convinced he's not slow.

[CSC]

If Daheer runs his race, he should win this. My only concern would be the comments made by his trainer is that the Dubai World Cup is the race they are pointing to. This is basically a gr.1 prep in essence, which you should never want to take a short price on. (But note trainer's off the layoff %)

As for the others in here, they are recycled also rans, names we have seen and heard previously. Nothing to be excited about, Einstein is the only new face in this crowd, IMO this is an extremely poor race to take a shot at him on his first dirt race(minus the slop race against turf horses 2/4/06). The question is if Einstein was such a good horse on dirt, why didn't they take a shot with him earlier? Seems like abit of a desperation move.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well sure....but in this group I think molasses would be a good bet at about 12/1.

Nice.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Gulfstream has been very even for the most part. Horses can come from well back.

Fairbanks is in a no win situation. First of all, and probably most importantly, he's not much horse. However, tactically he's way against it, as the horse who is very much the horse to beat has his exact running style, and is a lot better at it. How can that possibly translate into a win by Fairbanks ( assuming Daaher doesn't lose his rider or worse )?

I don't completely discount the possibility of some kind of meltdown. But, Fairbanks will be the cause of that....not the beneficiary.

So you think Daaher will have no problem with the distance? I'm not sold on him past 8 furlongs. If Fairbanks can pressure him then it's a coin flip on who will win.

Now this is all a moot point if I don't get 6/1 or higher on Fairbanks. He's playable at those odds, especially in the exotics.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

So you think Daaher will have no problem with the distance? I'm not sold on him past 8 furlongs. If Fairbanks can pressure him then it's a coin flip on who will win.

Now this is all a moot point if I don't get 6/1 or higher on Fairbanks. He's playable at those odds, especially in the exotics.

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem. But, the horse who pressures him will have a bigger problem.

Fairbanks has very limited ability. It may be a coin flip whether or not he runs last, but he's not in a coin flip with Daaher no matter how you cut it.

I'm really not trying to be a wiseguy and I have no idea what you find appealing about Fairbanks. I honestly don't think he is mildly interesting at 20-1.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem. But, the horse who pressures him will have a bigger problem.

Fairbanks has very limited ability. It may be a coin flip whether or not he runs last, but he's not in a coin flip with Daaher no matter how you cut it.

I'm really not trying to be a wiseguy and I have no idea what you find appealing about Fairbanks. I honestly don't think he is mildly interesting at 20-1.

The only horse I see that could benefit from Daaher and Fairbanks dueling is A.P. Arrow and he's not exactly the greatest horse off a short layoff.

I'm overlooking the bad form Fairbanks had in his last two races and looking at what he did in the spring and early summer.

I just think it's between Daaher and Fairbanks. It's worth a small wager to keep me interested in an otherwise shittastic race.

[Bobby Fischer]

Swale has a few interesting ones.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Swale has a few interesting ones.

6th (3:40) Swale S. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Mr. Foz 116 L
2 Eaton's Gift Desormeaux K J 116 L
3 Surrealdeal Cruz M R 116 L
4 St. Joe Coa E M 116 L
5 Silver Edition Velasquez C 116 L
6 Wincat Velazquez J R 116
7 Coal Play Castro E 116 L




I figured you must have been looking at the wrong race, so I posted this again.

[Bobby Fischer]

That Kiss the Kidd actually ran a fairly quick 6furlongs in the CanTurf. huh.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Daaher has a huge win at Saratoga last year at 1 1/8. But, that was loose on the lead, and if he gets seriously pressured here I think he may have a problem.

If he gets pressured here he might very well be struggling down the stretch, but I don't think this bunch will be good enough to take advantage of that, even if it happens.
As far as I am concerned, his performances since that August race at Saratoga indicate that he is simply better than these. Although 8f is probably a better distance for him than 9f, he beat those allowance horses by 13+ going 9f at the Spa, and he certainly has a two-turn pedigree.
I think the smart money here may end up being on the favorite.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If he gets pressured here he might very well be struggling down the stretch, but I don't think this bunch will be good enough to take advantage of that, even if it happens.
As far as I am concerned, his performances since that August race at Saratoga indicate that he is simply better than these. Although 8f is probably a better distance for him than 9f, he beat those allowance horses by 13+ going 9f at the Spa, and he certainly has a two-turn pedigree.
I think the smart money here may end up being on the favorite.

I mostly agree and slightly disagree.

If you really think there will be a meltdown then that's how you play the race and you pitch Daaher. I'm not saying I feel this is the case, but if he gets run into the ground, the closers are talented enough to swallow him up.

However, I think he's faster early than Fairbanks, and cheap speed like Kiss the Kid has no realistic hope of competing early or late ( and should be scratched ). Thus, I think while the pace will be reasonably quick, it won't be pressured, and his superiority will likely do this field in.

But, if I play multi-race bets I will try to find the likely closer or two to back up with in case the meltdown scenerio occurs. However, in the 20 minutes or so I've looked at this race, I don't think that's likely. Perhaps I will change my mind when I look more.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But, if I play multi-race bets I will try to find the likely closer or two to back up with in case the meltdown scenerio occurs. However, in the 20 minutes or so I've looked at this race, I don't think that's likely. Perhaps I will change my mind when I look more.

He looks like a pretty strong single to me, but I guess if I was going to go two-deep I would probably throw in AP Arrow. If there actually is a total meltdown up front - which I also doubt - he seems to me to be the most probable winner. His last race was actually pretty good, he ran fairly well over this track last year, he doesn't have a kiss-of-death outside post, and he seems to run just fine (for him) off of a layoff.