|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
01-20-2008, 11:09 AM
|
||||
|
||||
I have a borderline obsession with Maiden Claiming races... I am really not sure why, as I am by no means a pedigree guru or particularly confident with MSW's.
I pass on playing class droppers more often than not, but when I find the ones I really like they are by far my favorite plays. I almost never play fav with a big trainers or big $$ purchase. Even when right, the payouts are usually low. I agree with the above that they are often bad favorites and lend higher than deserved odds to other runners. Instead I look for fair (or juicy) odds on trainers with high ROI in MCL in general or high ROI on the MSW/MCL move. I am always looking for good MSW tote action and excuses with either troubled trips, washed off turf races, unappreciated sloppy starts, failed turf experiments, etc. Just my two cents. I am by no means a great (or probably even very good) capper. But I would probably be best served to just play these runners as it is where I undoubtedly have my best success. Curious as to other folks take on the topic. 
|
|
#2
01-20-2008, 11:18 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
The big droppers, especially ones bought for big money and then showing up in claiming races I avoid period. Sometimes they beat me but usually they fulfill their underperforming stature.
As for horses that have run and dropping you really need to look at the owners and trainers as some have said. I especially like when there's a positive trainer change on someone who had form and lost it. You also have to look at injuries where a horse has been really good, had time off, and switched to a better trainer. Those I pounce on (not that I always win) because I feel a trainer can get the horse back. Spyder
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
|
|
#3
01-20-2008, 11:22 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
one angle that i found is good to me. the winner of mclm or msw trys the stake then with no real placing..be it illusions of grandure by connections or trainer .. then drops back to where he won......
good stuff, love the discussion....
|
|
#4
01-20-2008, 11:27 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#5
01-20-2008, 11:33 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Thread from selections regarding a class dropper today. Not a big dollar purchase. But still on topic.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19525
|
|
#6
01-20-2008, 02:30 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Oaklawn Race #1 the six horse
Great example where big dropper gets claimed twice and each time goes in for lower 14K to 10K and in for 7.5K today as 3/2 fav. Hate him here.
Let's see what happens. Spyder
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
|
|
#7
01-20-2008, 02:35 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Results
After race:
Quote:
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
|
|
#8
01-20-2008, 02:41 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I think that it is more of a trainer play. Just have to know which trainers are dangerous when there horses make huge drops. Hooves mentioned Pletcher, he just doesn't seem like the guy that would drop a horse to steal a race.
I personally never bet a horse that runs for a lower tag then claimed next time out, just too fishy for me. Also I am weary when a horse wins and then drops in the next race. As far as purchase price goes, I notice it but do not take it into account to much. I know of a horse that cost 16 million and you would think for that much money he would be able run a little, right? 
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
|
 |
| Thread Tools | |
| Display Modes | |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
