Commentator.. nice!

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Everything every trainer does is not the right thing. They will all tell you this. However, when a trainer has a substantial resume of success it seems a little presumptuous for any of us to think we know better than them.

Commentator was 4:5 when he ran in the Forego. You show me a trainer that doesn't run a horse that is 4:5 in a Grade 1 and I will show you a moron. Commentator was 9:1 in the BC Sprint. You tell me the turf race that was more prestigious where he would have been a shorter price. One could argue that the best course of action is to consider your equity and go where it's highest. Especially when you have a horse that you pray can stay sound for even a short period of time.

Frankly, the person who thinks Indian Blessing should be pointing for the KY Derby is in absolutely no position to recommend the course of any horse.

Just because someone has a great record of success doesn't mean that they are never wrong. Wayne Lukas is arguably the most successful trainer in the history of the TC series and it's preps. Does it mean that his decision to press on with Going Wild was a good one? Does his record mean that nobody should have the right to question the move? I don't believe his record makes him beyond reproach. Same goes for Zito. Even so, I didn't say Zito was at fault for the places he ran the horse. I don't know who makes the call on where the horse runs. For all I know, the owner could be the one making the decisions against Zito's better judgment. If the only people that should be qualified to question anything on this forum are those that have a better track record in the game than Zito, I suspect that it would get pretty quiet around here pretty fast.

Who in the world cares if Commentator was 4/5 in the race? Does that mean that Zito should always run his horses where the public thinks he has the best shot? Using the odds a horse goes off at to suggest that they deserve those odds is weak. Arazi was the favorite in the 1992 BC Mile. I believe Favorite Trick held that same role in the 1998 running of the same race. Did either of them deserve to be? Absolutely not. So what do odds mean? I told anyone that would listen, and it's on here in print, that he had NO SHOT to win. I've said many times that he'll never win a top level sprint race. Wouldn't matter if he was 1/10. What if they had maybe tried the grass before last year's BC? What if he liked it? Then they could have considered the Mile instead of the Sprint.

Finally, I'm not sure what Indian Blessing has to do with any of this other than your constant need to try and belittle people's opinions. But at least you should be right about it when you do bring her up. I don't believe that I said she SHOULD run in the Derby. I don't believe I said she should be even POINTING to the Derby. If she were mine, that is not the direction I would be going with her. I said that I thought that at this point, I think she is one of the top five 3yos and Derby prospects out there. I don't think though that she's got a shot against War Pass or El Gato Malo so I wouldn't be looking to take them on unless I saw something in her next couple of races that told me that I have to go there.

Same old same old
with this horse.
Give em an easy run
in the first part of a race,
uncontested early, he looks
like a monster.

He can win sprints.
If they go 22.5, 46 and he
leads these fractions.
Good luck with that.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Just because someone has a great record of success doesn't mean that they are never wrong. Wayne Lukas is arguably the most successful trainer in the history of the TC series and it's preps. Does it mean that his decision to press on with Going Wild was a good one? Does his record mean that nobody should have the right to question the move? I don't believe his record makes him beyond reproach. Same goes for Zito. Even so, I didn't say Zito was at fault for the places he ran the horse. I don't know who makes the call on where the horse runs. For all I know, the owner could be the one making the decisions against Zito's better judgment. If the only people that should be qualified to question anything on this forum are those that have a better track record in the game than Zito, I suspect that it would get pretty quiet around here pretty fast.

Who in the world cares if Commentator was 4/5 in the race? Does that mean that Zito should always run his horses where the public thinks he has the best shot? Using the odds a horse goes off at to suggest that they deserve those odds is weak. Arazi was the favorite in the 1992 BC Mile. I believe Favorite Trick held that same role in the 1998 running of the same race. Did either of them deserve to be? Absolutely not. So what do odds mean? I told anyone that would listen, and it's on here in print, that he had NO SHOT to win. I've said many times that he'll never win a top level sprint race. Wouldn't matter if he was 1/10. What if they had maybe tried the grass before last year's BC? What if he liked it? Then they could have considered the Mile instead of the Sprint.

Finally, I'm not sure what Indian Blessing has to do with any of this other than your constant need to try and belittle people's opinions. But at least you should be right about it when you do bring her up. I don't believe that I said she SHOULD run in the Derby. I don't believe I said she should be even POINTING to the Derby. If she were mine, that is not the direction I would be going with her. I said that I thought that at this point, I think she is one of the top five 3yos and Derby prospects out there. I don't think though that she's got a shot against War Pass or El Gato Malo so I wouldn't be looking to take them on unless I saw something in her next couple of races that told me that I have to go there.

you know el gatos fig was way downgraded due to a goof speed bias..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Finally, I'm not sure what Indian Blessing has to do with any of this

I hope you still aren't willing to argue steadfastly that she doesn't have stamina issues to address.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I hope you still aren't willing to argue steadfastly that she doesn't have stamina issues to address.

I haven't seen any yet. I won't use how she ran this past weekend as any evidence of anything other than the fact that Baffert had her ready to win a 7f race in fast time in her 3yo debut. There was no need for her to be ready to rate and show enough stamina to convince the masses that she could go 9f or more in that race. I believe that a horse should be trained for what they are going to be asked to do. This is the same thing I went through with Smarty in 2004. People said he wouldn't have the stamina to go past a mile. They used his run in the Southwest Stakes (a tiring win where the closers were coming at him) as proof. They were wrong. Maybe they will end up right about Indian Blessing. This past weekend's race means nothing towards that end though, IMO. If one was seeing her for the first time this past weekend, they would assume that she couldn't last a step beyond 7f but we know that's not true because she's already won at 8.5f around two turns in grade one company.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

This is the same thing I went through with Smarty in 2004. People said he wouldn't have the stamina to go past a mile. They used his run in the Southwest Stakes (a tiring win where the closers were coming at him) as proof. They were wrong.

OH NO. Comparing Indian Blessing to Smarty Jones again.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by merasmag

be careful what u ask 4...stick to jumpers cg, u may know sumthin bout that, tbs...no

stalker

[miraja2]

Could we stop arguing about stupid Indian Blessing?
We all know she would need a bus ticket to get 10f, but that really has no bearing on Commentator. This is a talented horse that has shown some serious talent from 6f to 9f, and demonstrated again that he has the ability to actually run fast.
There aren't very many horses that can do that right now.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Could we stop arguing about stupid Indian Blessing?
We all know she would need a bus ticket to get 10f, but that really has no bearing on Commentator. This is a talented horse that has shown some serious talent from 6f to 9f, and demonstrated again that he has the ability to actually run fast.
There aren't very many horses that can do that right now.

Amazing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I bet against Smarty Jones in the EhorseX exchange market the day of the Southwest because there was no way he wasn't getting cooked in that race - He got cooked - and still gave only marginal late ground to Two Down Automatic.

Since her remarkable debut at 5.5 furlongs, Indian Blessing has shown vulnerability through the stretch run in each start. To compare her at this point - with Smarty Jones after the Southwest Stakes - is ridiculious.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I bet against Smarty Jones in the EhorseX exchange market the day of the Southwest because there was no way he wasn't getting cooked in that race - He got cooked - and still gave only marginal late ground to Two Down Automatic.

Since her remarkable debut at 5.5 furlongs, Indian Blessing has shown vulnerability through the stretch run in each start. To compare her at this point - with Smarty Jones after the Southwest Stakes - is ridiculious.

To be honest, I couldn't stand Smarty Jones until after the Belmont was over. I remember seeing footage of him after the race was done and he was literally shaking from exhaustion. Any horse that puts in that much effort to attempt to win a race is a nice horse IMO.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

To be honest, I couldn't stand Smarty Jones until after the Belmont was over. I remember seeing footage of him after the race was done and he was literally shaking from exhaustion. Any horse that puts in that much effort to attempt to win a race is a nice horse IMO.

Rock Hard Ten - who won the Grade 1 Malibu at 7f over Lava Man at the end of that season - he got a very stupid ride and made a very pre-mature inside move in that race. He was ridden in the Belmont like it was a 7 furlong race, and the vast majority of the people seemed to want to blame Bailey for him harmless early actions on Eddington...basically forcing them from walking the dog up front and relaxing.

RHT's early move did a hell of a lot more to soften SJ - than Bailey shaking up his plodder a little early on, to force the pacesetters from crawling.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i loath bailey.. but i like when a horse goes after the front runner whos slowing it down. to many outcomes have been bad because no one had the stones to go...

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rock Hard Ten - who won the Grade 1 Malibu at 7f over Lava Man at the end of that season - he got a very stupid ride and made a very pre-mature inside move in that race. He was ridden in the Belmont like it was a 7 furlong race, and the vast majority of the people seemed to want to blame Bailey for him harmless early actions on Eddington...basically forcing them from walking the dog up front and relaxing.

RHT's early move did a hell of a lot more to soften SJ - than Bailey shaking up his plodder a little early on, to force the pacesetters from crawling.

Agree with your analysis... sucks that it happened that way. Hell, it more than sucks. Smarty was probably the closest thing to a Triple Crown winner that I'll see in my lifetime and I didn't even care for him until after it was said and done, lol.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I bet against Smarty Jones in the EhorseX exchange market the day of the Southwest because there was no way he wasn't getting cooked in that race - He got cooked - and still gave only marginal late ground to Two Down Automatic.

Since her remarkable debut, Indian Blessing has shown vulnerability through the stretch run in each start. To compare her at this point - with Smarty Jones after the Southwest Stakes - is ridiculious.

For goodness sakes, I'M NOT COMPARING HER WITH SMARTY JONES!!!! Gee. I'm comparing situations of having a horse prepared to run one race and then people saying that it shows or proves what will happen in the next one. Do people not understand the meaning of a PREP anymore?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

For goodness sakes, I'M NOT COMPARING HER WITH SMARTY JONES!!!!

No, almost just as bad, you used the reaction some people had from his Southwest win as an example for justifying that it is pre-mature to say that Indian Blessing has stamina issues to address.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just think there is a basic misunderstanding by Sniper and King Glorious about Commentator. You both seem completely oblivious to his physical issues. This is a 7YO that just made his 16th career start. Think about that for a while....a long while. You both seem to be mapping out a season for a horse that is lucky to be able to make four starts a year. Sniper thinks he should be shipping down to New Orleans to run in the Minshaft in a few weeks as a prep for, maybe, the NO Handicap. I'm not exactly, to say the least, Mr. Backstretch, but I know enough to understand how ridiculous it would be to ship him and run him that ambitiously. It's very early in the year. There are plenty of races and if handled carefully perhaps, just perhaps, he will be able to take a shot in some of the more fitting spots. I am sure Zito would love to try him going longer again, but in order for that to happen I imagine he has to be handled very carefully. I hate the expression " they're not machines " but I do think it is very fitting in this particular case.

Miraja is right. Commentator is a horse that at times has run awe inspiring fast races. We don't see this very often anymore. He's a 7YO with a lifetime of issues. It's a miracle he's still running even occasionally well. It seems more fitting to be appreciating whatever we get out of him instead of arguing about where he's best spotted. Just hope he makes another start....and another.....

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just think there is a basic misunderstanding by Sniper and King Glorious about Commentator. You both seem completely oblivious to his physical issues. This is a 7YO that just made his 16th career start. Think about that for a while....a long while. You both seem to be mapping out a season for a horse that is lucky to be able to make four starts a year. Sniper thinks he should be shipping down to New Orleans to run in the Minshaft in a few weeks as a prep for, maybe, the NO Handicap. I'm not exactly, to say the least, Mr. Backstretch, but I know enough to understand how ridiculous it would be to ship him and run him that ambitiously. It's very early in the year. There are plenty of races and if handled carefully perhaps, just perhaps, he will be able to take a shot in some of the more fitting spots. I am sure Zito would love to try him going longer again, but in order for that to happen I imagine he has to be handled very carefully. I hate the expression " they're not machines " but I do think it is very fitting in this particular case.

Miraja is right. Commentator is a horse that at times has run awe inspiring fast races. We don't see this very often anymore. He's a 7YO with a lifetime of issues. It's a miracle he's still running even occasionally well. It seems more fitting to be appreciating whatever we get out of him instead of arguing about where he's best spotted. Just hope he makes another start....and another.....

As I said, if the horse has shipping issues then don't ship him. If he doesn't have a problem with shipping and is ready then the Mineshaft is a great spot as a good performance would make the New Orleans Cap an intriguing option and if not would leave the Richter Scale as a nice cutback. If he has shipping issues or isn't ready to bounce back that quick then I guess there is no option but to keep him home and wait for the Richter Scale. Obviously he has issues but as we've seen with plenty of horses they can take months off and comeback and suffer an injury (or worse), so to a degree you have to strike while the iron is hot and your horse is healthy. Planning a BC campaign around a horse with 16 starts as a 7yo who just ran huge in January is probably not going to work. I pray it does cause I like the horse a lot but the reality is the odds are severely against him.

[Indian Charlie]

The first four dams of commentator have a combined total of one start.

[blackthroatedwind]

Commentator got a 119 Beyer fig for yesterday's race.