capping 101..the "SPOCK HORSE"

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's obvious if you do your work.

There's a handicapping method which I just don't understand......see who the favorite is and bet against it. I see people doing this, in a confused attempt to be a wiseguy, and it makes no sense whatsoever. None. And, it's obviously a recipe for disaster.

This 5th race is a great example of a cut and dried situation, and it is more important in this case with a carryover, in that there are pretty much only two horses that can win, with the Jerkens horse a distant third possibility that maybe you back up with if you spend enough. Nobody else can be even remotely reasonably expected to win and your money has to be better spent elsewhere.

The "see who the favorite is and bet against it" works for a single race approach- if the favorite wins, shrug the shoulders and turn the page- but from a multirace wagering perspective the MOST important thing to me is whether I can stand alone with him (or two). I'm not sure if they're thinking in the same vein as you are here (whether to stand alone with her.)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

The "see who the favorite is and bet against it" works for a single race approach- if the favorite wins, shrug the shoulders and turn the page- but from a multirace wagering perspective the MOST important thing to me is whether I can stand alone with him (or two). I'm not sure if they're thinking in the same vein as you are here (whether to stand alone with her.)

It doesn't work period. You handicap the races and decide, relatively speaking, who's worth what. Preconceived ideas are for losers. If you don't want to take a short price, and can't find exotics to play, then you pass. Betting against any horse simply because it is the favorite isn't a rational decision.

[blackthroatedwind]

The 5th race sets up very well on paper for Anlyn, especially if Play N Hooky goes. Her last race was weak, with an overall very good trip, but she could suck up if there is a substantial speed duel. However, in order for that to happen, I Promise has to fail to show up and Jet Setting has to get buried in a duel. All not impossible but a lot to ask for at a mediocre price.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The 5th race sets up very well on paper for Anlyn, especially if Play N Hooky goes. Her last race was weak, with an overall very good trip, but she could suck up if there is a substantial speed duel. However, in order for that to happen, I Promise has to fail to show up and Jet Setting has to get buried in a duel. All not impossible but a lot to ask for at a mediocre price.

That is what I've been trying to say!
I think she has a decent shot. Are the other two more likely winners? Yes, of course. I am not "trying to beat" either of them. If I am seriously going to play a race, I take a lot of time and try to set my own line for the horses. I never decide if I am going to play a race for certain until about 10 minutes before the race (unless it is the Kentucky Derby or something like that). In general, if a horse I liked seems like a good value 10 minutes out, I'll play it. If not, I'll skip the race entirely.
As I said before, I think Anlyn here is about a 7/2 shot. If she goes off at 3/1, 7/2, or something like that, I wouldn't play her. If they send her off at 6/1 or more I probably would (if I was playing at all today....which I'm not).

[blackthroatedwind]

Personally I don't think 7-2 is a good price but in an odd way it might be a good sign. In order for her to be 7-2, or less, I Promise will have to not be getting bet they way she should be and, in general, horses like I Promise, especially from that barn, that don't take the money they should end up underperforming. So, if I Promise is a lukewarm 5-2, or higher, and Anlyn is seemingly overbet, then I guess her chances are better than they seem on paper.

But, she still has to beat Jet Setting, which is not going to be easy. But, I guess that's why she's the proverbial " third likeliest winner. "

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It doesn't work period. You handicap the races and decide, relatively speaking, who's worth what. Preconceived ideas are for losers. If you don't want to take a short price, and can't find exotics to play, then you pass. Betting against any horse simply because it is the favorite isn't a rational decision.

This is where most people (myself included) have the most trouble. The compulsive "action" wagers destroy one's bankroll.

[Dunbar]

What the heck. Here's my line for the race:

PP# Horse Odds (to one, unless otherwise shown)
1 Anlyn, 10
2 JetSetting, 1
3 PlayNHooky, 150
4 Call Me Karakorum, 300
5 Ms Rabbits, 700
6 C.T.PhoneHome, 7
7 I Promise, 7-2
8 Slipstone, 25

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

What the heck. Here's my line for the race:

PP# Horse Odds (to one, unless otherwise shown)
1 Anlyn, 10
2 JetSetting, 1
3 PlayNHooky, 150
4 Call Me Karakorum, 300
5 Ms Rabbits, 700
6 C.T.PhoneHome, 7
7 I Promise, 7-2
8 Slipstone, 25

--Dunbar

So you think CT Phone Home is more likely to win than Anlyn?

I don't.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

well there goes that case nice call ..it was fun for a tuesday..7/2 ..funny i think btw dumped late.. on the 7 at 4-1..lol this crow is tasty..but the 2 did break poorly again.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

well there goes that case nice call ..it was fun for a tuesday..7/2 ..funny i think btw dumped late.. on the 7 at 4-1..lol

No, but I did make a score......I bet that CT Phone Home would run last.